What if it all comes down to the Grenoble ITT?
 

Hypothesis:

Alberto & Cadel (most likely at this point) +/- the Schlecks arrive in Grenoble within 30" of each other. Penultimat stage, ride of truth & all that. Its a 42.5km rolling course which would seem to suit a roleur/strongman like Hushovd or Cancellara for the stage.

However, the main game will be for the GC - who do you see closing the deal here? By how much & why? Or will it go to Paris?(!)

Contador is only a slightly better time trialist then Cadel Evans, so he needs to make up right around 2 minutes if he expects to win. Frank and Andy Schleck I think will lose about 1.30 to Contador / Evans. What this means is that the Schlecks need to attack in the mountains, as does Contador.

Right now Evans is in the best position to win the TDF. All he has to do is defend against Contador, which is the only GC threat who might be able to out TT him, and he has about a 2 minute buffer to play with.

Voeckler is a dark horse. He has a nice buffer on Evans, but he is not normally a good time trialist. I would say he needs to not lose any time to Evans and at the same time ride the time trial of his life in order to win. That's possible, but it's asking a lot.

I actually think the Alps are going to shake things up though. Someone is going to get dropped. I can't see everyone riding in a little group and hoping for the best in the time trial.

It very well could come down to the last ITT. But I think the first 2/3's of the course is steep enough that it could favor AC and CE over FC and TH. But it hardly matters since those guys will be down more than an hour in the GC. I seriously think that this could be CE time to win the TDF. I think AC might take a minute on him in two mountain stages if AC continues to improve. But CE is riding very solid right now. We never have really seen CE this fresh and strong in the TDF before even though he has placed 2nd twice before. He will be tough to unseat unless he has a bad day in the mountains.

EDIT:

Looking at the stage again there is only around 300-350 meters of elevation gain over the first 30 km. Probably not steep enough to favor AC. Look's like a good stage for Thor and Cadel. Fabian if he is strong may win it.

If the TV commentators are correct, they've noted that both Voeckler and Basso have lost serious time (5 minutes +) at their last TDF ITT and honestly, I can't see either of the Schlecks doing any better. I agree that Cadel looks fresh and seems to have a plan which is more or less working at the moment. The buffer to AC is a bit fortuitous (ie, the accident) but its there and frankly, CE is due some luck in this race. Like you guys, I see CE hanging tough in the mountains on the ascents and possibly making more time in the descents. There are a couple (1 small/1 long) in todays stage where he could make another serious break based on his ability to descend quickly.

The ITT could be tight but I think CE will be top 5 and may clinch the deal there too.

Cadel Evans looks to have it in the bag . . . but I'm hesitant to say that. I've grown accustomed to seeing him blow his chances with a bad stage or two. Cadel Evans has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Yeah i keep waiting for his big crack...BUT he looks very good in this years TdF and his BMC team is riding pretty well.

Tall order given the form AC appears to be finding. But he has time in his favor but AC, if he's feeling as good as he's looking, will know he has to focus on Evans now and will likely spend his energy attacking him.

Contador would normally be the strongest TTer. Frank Schleck would be the worst. Voeckler would be a complete unknown if he's riding in yellow. You know he'd put on the ride of his life and nothing would surprise me. It's looking like he's going to lose yellow in the next 2 days, though.

It would go something like Contador > Evans > Sanchez > Basso > Andy > Frank. Maybe switch Andy and Basso.

They did the exact same TT in the Dauphine this year. Here are the results: http://velonews.competitor.com/2011/...stage-3_177669

Results from the final TT last year: http://velonews.competitor.com/2010/...s_123032#stage

It went Contador > Sanchez > Andy > Basso > Evans. Basso and Evans really didn't have anything to ride for at that point, and Evans had his arm injury.

Sanchez seems to be the most underrated. He only lost 7 seconds to Contador in that TT and he looks to be in good form this year.

What if it comes down to Paris?

It wont.