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Will Andy Schleck Ever Win The TDF?

Old 07-25-11, 08:26 AM
  #26  
Nick Bain
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great, more fodder for next years tdf schleck love affair.
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Old 07-25-11, 08:40 AM
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Andy...Andy...Andy. Frank lost 2 min to Andy on the Galibier by marking the other riders. He finished 1 min down on Andy and 2:30 on Evans for final GC. If Frank wasn't his brother's keeper he would have better results as a pro-cyclist.
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Old 07-25-11, 09:05 AM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Nick Bain View Post
great, more fodder for next years tdf schleck love affair.
Thank you for your contribution.
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Old 07-25-11, 09:09 AM
  #29  
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I never thought Evans would win, but he was able to put it all together. Ever since his Worlds win he's been a changed man.

5 years from now, who knows? Andy could do the same thing.
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Old 07-25-11, 09:16 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by ravenmore View Post
I was looking at the history of Tour winners from a TT perspective. Some of the riders I don't know about for sure (like Pantani), but it looks like all of them a least back to Lemond were won by riders with very good, if not dominating, TT skills.

Unless Andy improves his TT I think it will be hard.
Pantani was a poor TT rider. But in the Tour he won he lifted his TT. Not to great, but a significant improvement. In the Tour he also had a stage where he put over 2 minutes on everyone who even vaguely counted (perhaps everyone, I'm not going to look it up) and abotu 8 minutes on Jan Ulrich, the eventual second place rider.

If AS hhas a stage like that while still in contention I'd say he will win the TDF.

Bahamontes was not a good TT rider, a great climber and he won a Tour. I believe he also liftend his TT. Again not to great, or even good, but decent was good enough.
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Old 07-25-11, 11:16 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by RavingManiac View Post
What do you think? It's obvious Andy has weaknesses. Can he ever overcome those and win?
Of course anythings possible. But look at it like this. This years course was ideal for him with only one ITT. He had good luck in that he avoided almost all of the early stage crashes. He has some very strong riders and a climbing brother who can help him out. Still he does not win. If he should have a little bad luck and there was another ITT he would likely fair even worse.

So the answer is yes but not likely. He's just not the total package. However, I wonder if he would do better by concentrating his training on his weaknesses instead of his strengths. If he could improve his ITT ability he would be the much more dangerous.
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Old 07-25-11, 11:27 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Hezz View Post
Of course anythings possible. But look at it like this. This years course was ideal for him with only one ITT. He had good luck in that he avoided almost all of the early stage crashes. He has some very strong riders and a climbing brother who can help him out. Still he does not win. If he should have a little bad luck and there was another ITT he would likely fair even worse.

So the answer is yes but not likely. He's just not the total package. However, I wonder if he would do better by concentrating his training on his weaknesses instead of his strengths. If he could improve his ITT ability he would be the much more dangerous.
Or admit his weaknesses and plan accordingly. If Armstrong went into a final TT 1 minute up he could be reasonably secure. AS is not secure 2 minutes up. If his TT does not improve he needs to ride to be up significant time. He cannot play the stay out of yellow game. He needs the lead in hte first mountians set and needs to keep building on it.
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Old 07-25-11, 11:31 AM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by Keith99 View Post
Or admit his weaknesses and plan accordingly. If Armstrong went into a final TT 1 minute up he could be reasonably secure. AS is not secure 2 minutes up. If his TT does not improve he needs to ride to be up significant time. He cannot play the stay out of yellow game. He needs the lead in hte first mountians set and needs to keep building on it.
That pretty much sums up what Andy needs to do. He really needs to be 2 minutes up on everyone coming out of the first mountain stages. And 3-4 minutes up on everyone coming into the final ITT. If he can do that he will have a good chance at the yellow jersey. But I think that he is afraid of the pressure.
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Old 07-25-11, 12:34 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by Keith99 View Post
Or admit his weaknesses and plan accordingly. If Armstrong went into a final TT 1 minute up he could be reasonably secure. AS is not secure 2 minutes up. If his TT does not improve he needs to ride to be up significant time. He cannot play the stay out of yellow game. He needs the lead in the first mountians set and needs to keep building on it.
I agree. The way grand tours are set up these days with limited ITT kms, who says he has to improve his TTing all that much? He just needs to use his strengths accordingly and try to build up a ~3 minute lead going into the final TT. If he had raced aggressively in the mountains from the start, he may have been able to do that to Cadel. We'll never know for sure.

The problem with that is Contador. If Contador is healthy and on form, he can climb as well as Schleck. Andy can train his ass off for TTs, but he's never going to be as good as one of the naturals like Contador or Evans.
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Old 07-25-11, 12:40 PM
  #35  
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I don't see Schleck ever winning. Needs to spend the Winter getting better against the clock. If the Chicken got better, maybe he can. He would have had his hands full if half the herd didn't crash out or ride injured. I agree they need to do something with the beginning of this race. I didn't even turn it on till stage 8.
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Old 07-25-11, 12:45 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Keith99 View Post
Pantani was a poor TT rider. But in the Tour he won he lifted his TT. Not to great, but a significant improvement. In the Tour he also had a stage where he put over 2 minutes on everyone who even vaguely counted (perhaps everyone, I'm not going to look it up) and abotu 8 minutes on Jan Ulrich, the eventual second place rider. If AS hhas a stage like that while still in contention I'd say he will win the TDF.

Bahamontes was not a good TT rider, a great climber and he won a Tour. I believe he also liftend his TT. Again not to great, or even good, but decent was good enough.
EPO induced 60% hematocrit days are over. The 2 min. solo climb beatings are now pack finishes with Schleck sprinting for a 5 second advantage over the field.
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Old 07-25-11, 12:56 PM
  #37  
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Look who's on Andy's team, if he can't learn from Stewie, Jens and Sparticus he will never win the tour
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Old 07-25-11, 12:57 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Stickney View Post
Schleck's chances to win would improve if he signed George Hincapie to his team. Just sayin.
No. Didn't see Hincapie doing a whole lot of work for Evens.
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Old 07-25-11, 01:21 PM
  #39  
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No way, never.
He's already 26!
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Old 07-25-11, 01:37 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by FlashBazbo View Post
This year's route was tailor-made for Andy to win. Unless they eliminate the TT completely, I don't see him winning. If they go back to two ITTs or even one ITT and a prologue, he's done.

But, lets face it . . . Andy wasn't on his best form this season (except, mysteriously, for two TdF stages). Who knows why.
This years route was indeed ideally suited to AS to the point that there was speculation that the organizers were trying to create a AS win.
His team was almost perfect in their support.
And yet when someone analyzed the climbs against past years it seemed to show that AS (and AC too) had gone up slower this year (CE has maintained the same climb speed for a few years) than past years.
If he gets over his AC fixation he has a better chance to win but as time passes on other hot shots show up on the scene.
So my guess is: no.
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Old 07-25-11, 01:39 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Cat4Lifer View Post
No way, never.
He's already 26!
That is true. No one over the age of 26 wins the tour.
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Old 07-25-11, 01:43 PM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by SouthFLpix View Post
He can win it if the stars align for him. To be honest I never thought Cadel Evans would ever win the Tour, and this year everything just fell into place for him.
Me either. Also, Andy was way off form in the tour de swiss. Even Phil Ligget said during the TDS that Andy was going to have trouble in the TDF.
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Old 07-25-11, 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Andy Somnifac View Post
No one over the age of 26 wins the tour.
Untrue.
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Old 07-25-11, 02:03 PM
  #44  
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Andy needs to grow a pair and start attacking much earlier. If a pure climber wants to win the tour, he needs to attack on every climb until he has enough time to concede in the ITT. If it takes the entire tour, then so be it. Hanging back and spending most of the time you're in front constantly turning and looking behind for your brother ain't gonna make it.
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Old 07-25-11, 02:08 PM
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Andy will never win the tour unless he reads and takes to heart the pearls of wisdom being tossed about like confetti by accomplished riders here on BF.
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Old 07-25-11, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Cat4Lifer View Post
Untrue.
Sarcasm. I has it.
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Old 07-25-11, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Andy Somnifac View Post
Sarcasm. I has it.
in spades
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Old 07-25-11, 02:30 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by ravenmore View Post
I was looking at the history of Tour winners from a TT perspective. Some of the riders I don't know about for sure (like Pantani), but it looks like all of them a least back to Lemond were won by riders with very good, if not dominating, TT skills.
Yeah Pantani is a rare case of such a bad time trialist winning the Tour. He lost close to 8 minutes on Ullrich over the three time trials. Including a 181st place in the Prologue, LOL. But his climbing - particularly the Les Deux Alpes stage - won him the Tour. (Ullrich finished the stage 9 minutes behind him!) But I don't know if we'll ever see such a crushing ride in a mountain stage in the Tour ever again. If not for the awful weather on the Galibier, he probably wouldn't have won the Tour even that year.

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Old 07-25-11, 03:49 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by jayp410 View Post
I think Andy's main problem is his height - it prevents him from getting into a good aero position in the TT, and adds some weight that he has to carry. So he either can be light and climb mountains well, or can add weight and do a better TT, but not both.
Miguel Indurain was taller. He seemed to do ok in the TT.
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Old 07-25-11, 03:55 PM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by daytonian View Post
EPO induced 60% hematocrit days are over. The 2 min. solo climb beatings are now pack finishes with Schleck sprinting for a 5 second advantage over the field.
Stage 18 Results
1 SCHLECK, Andy (LEOPARD-TREK) 6h 07' 56"
2 SCHLECK, Frank (LEOPARD-TREK) + 02' 07"
3 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 02' 15"
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