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Will Andy Schleck Ever Win The TDF?

Old 07-25-11, 04:06 PM
  #51  
Hornbiker
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From what I've read, Andy just isn't as regimented in his training as others (AC, Cadel, etc.). Example: only one ITT this Tour, and Andy knows this is a big weakness for him. Does he recon it ahead? No. He apparently didn't think that would be helpful or important. Cadel rode the route four times (including one time racing it in the Dauphine). The results speak for themselves.

The stars were aligned for Andy this year — one short ITT, a Team TT, and AC with crashes/lost time and a Giro in his legs. He also benefitted from so many other contenders crashing out (most notably Wiggins, Jani, maybe Horner) — these guys and their teams would have made it much less likely for him to take that time on the Galibier. Hell, Cadel took a couple minutes off of him chasing alone.

I really thought that this was Andy's year, but it looks like he didn't work hard enough for it. If he's able to improve his ITT, then he may have a chance. Maybe.
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Old 07-25-11, 04:21 PM
  #52  
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i dunno, even though andy can't TT for crap and had an awesome team this year and didn't pull it off, i still think the guy who finished 2nd twice and is still so young has a great shot to win a future tour de france. I think he will eventually pull it off. He's like the new cadel evans.
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Old 07-25-11, 04:30 PM
  #53  
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What do you think Andy should have done differently had he known that Cadel was the real challenge and not Alberto?

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Old 07-25-11, 04:52 PM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by DiabloScott View Post
What do you think Andy should have done differently had he known that Cadel was the real challenge and not Alberto?

Saved his strength to attack on the alp instead of following Alberto early in the stage, or he should have worked with Alberto to gain time instead of just marking him.
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Old 07-25-11, 04:53 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by Hornbiker View Post
From what I've read, Andy just isn't as regimented in his training as others (AC, Cadel, etc.). Example: only one ITT this Tour, and Andy knows this is a big weakness for him. Does he recon it ahead? No. He apparently didn't think that would be helpful or important. Cadel rode the route four times (including one time racing it in the Dauphine). The results speak for themselves.
Depends on what you consider "reconning ahead". Saw an interview with him afterward, and he said he *did* ride the route that morning, so he did it at least once, and that counts as recon in my book. Should he have done it more? Probably, but he did it at least once, so it's not like he was completely unprepared.
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Old 07-25-11, 04:58 PM
  #56  
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Originally Posted by DXchulo View Post
The problem with that is Contador. If Contador is healthy and on form, he can climb as well as Schleck. Andy can train his ass off for TTs, but he's never going to be as good as one of the naturals like Contador or Evans.
Maybe I'm wrong, but seems to me that Contador use to have real problems in the TT. Anyone....?
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Old 07-25-11, 05:01 PM
  #57  
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Andy can't TT, and he's afraid of dive bombing on mountain descents. As long as his competitors know his weaknesses, they will exploit them.
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Old 07-25-11, 05:07 PM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by DiabloScott View Post
What do you think Andy should have done differently had he known that Cadel was the real challenge and not Alberto?
I think that's possibly the wrong question. In the days of Armstrong and other mega-winners, sure, the strategy would be to mark the guy you know is going to win and not let him get ahead of you.

But this tour had so many GC contenders that this strategy makes no sense, as we can now see. I think the real strategy would have been to just attack. Go at your sustainable limit and try to win... don't hold back just because everyone else seems to be as well.

Everyone seems to agree that this was one of the best tours ever. But I disagree... it was one of the best tour endings. Everyone seems to be forgetting the massive amount of nothingness (besides the crashes) that occurred for the majority of it, even if they were lamenting this fact just scant weeks ago!
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Old 07-25-11, 06:05 PM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by Mithrandir View Post
Everyone seems to agree that this was one of the best tours ever. But I disagree...
I don't think this was one of the best Tours. There was a 12 day wait until the first mountain stage, and even then we got very little action until we hit the Alps. The GC was close until the last day, but I would rather see more attacking. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but for me this was not one of the more exciting Tours. Most of the time I just kept waiting for something to happen, and I was usually left wanting.
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Old 07-25-11, 06:52 PM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by john gault View Post
Maybe I'm wrong, but seems to me that Contador use to have real problems in the TT. Anyone....?
When? He won the U23 Spanish National TT. His first win as a pro was a TT. If you look at his palmares you'll see quite a few TT wins.
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Old 07-25-11, 09:40 PM
  #61  
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Contador is gonna dominate the next 7 tours. He learned his lesson this year and will be the first and last 10-time tour winner.
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Old 07-26-11, 01:15 AM
  #62  
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Originally Posted by colombo357 View Post
Contador is gonna dominate the next 7 tours. He learned his lesson this year and will be the first and last 10-time tour winner.
That's just silly. (sarcasm?)

Anyway, for the sake of argument:
Contador doesn't want to be the #1 tour specialist(ie. beat lance), he wants to be a legend as close to Eddy as possible, the single best cyclist since the cannibal's era.

Being a world-class stage racer isn't good enough for him. Being 1 of 5 to win all 3 GT's isn't good enough for him. Having some of the best palmares in history for his age isn't good enough for him.

We saw that this year, when he stubbornly rode (and completely dominated) the Giro, against Riijs' advice.

As long as Contador is rested & healthy, AS won't win the tour. Unless he attempts the Giro-Tour double again(2013).
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Old 07-26-11, 02:58 AM
  #63  
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not optimistic that andy can improve his tt ability significantly without adversely affecting his climbing ability.

actually think he would do better without his brother on the same team in the same race. frank is an enabler of sorts.

cautiously optimistic he has realized the fear/demoralization that his attack on the allos/izoard/galibier tdf stage created in
his rivals is something he will want to duplicate again and again. hoping he permanently sheds his vanilla tactical style and
channels pantani/contador/scarponi in the future. andy is not built to win the tdf by grinding rivals down/attrition a la
armstrong/evans. he is more in the pantani mold and he needs to embrace it. andy needs to dictate instead of taking dictation.
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Old 07-26-11, 03:00 AM
  #64  
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am i the only one that misses jan?
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Old 07-26-11, 03:27 AM
  #65  
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga View Post
am i the only one that misses jan?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYFhWV8--io
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Old 07-26-11, 03:36 AM
  #66  
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ha. i don't miss kris kristofferson. nor janis.
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Old 07-26-11, 05:48 AM
  #67  
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Originally Posted by TommyL View Post
Stage 18 Results
1 SCHLECK, Andy (LEOPARD-TREK) 6h 07' 56"
2 SCHLECK, Frank (LEOPARD-TREK) + 02' 07"
3 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 02' 15"

Stage 14
1 Jelle Vanendert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 5:13:25
2 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:00:21
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:00:46
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:00:48
5 Rigoberto Uran Uran (Col) Sky Procycling
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Old 07-26-11, 06:22 AM
  #68  
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Yes, Andy will win it sometime if Contador once again tries the Giro-TDF double in a few years, Contador is suspended or Contador suffers a debilitating crash.

Last edited by Skewer; 07-26-11 at 06:31 AM.
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Old 07-26-11, 08:10 AM
  #69  
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Unlikely- unless he learns the lessons of 2011. Time trialling can be improved - but if he was ever going to be a truly explosive climber, this would already be apparent.
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Old 07-26-11, 09:29 AM
  #70  
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Originally Posted by daytonian View Post
EPO induced 60% hematocrit days are over. The 2 min. solo climb beatings are now pack finishes with Schleck sprinting for a 5 second advantage over the field.
This year Andy took part in both a 2 min. solo climb beating and a pack finish with him sprinting ahead at the end. I don't see how you can say the days of winning a mountain stage by a big margin are over when he did just that 5 days ago.
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Old 07-26-11, 10:31 AM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga View Post
am i the only one that misses jan?

I do!
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Old 07-27-11, 12:49 PM
  #72  
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I think it's pretty unlikely because he just doesn't seem to have that intangible quality that winners have (plus he's not good at time trials). The only way he'll win a Tour is if AC gets stripped of his titles. But those wins would have an asterisk by them and most cycling fans wouldn't regard him as the real winner.

As long as Frank races with him, he won't win. Andy's too busy looking for him. Blazing Saddles, a blogger on Eurosport UK, said that the Schleck brothers need mirrors on their bikes to avoid stiff necks from looking back for each other or a tandem bike. Here's the link: http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blog/b.../article/2593/

Andy just can't bear to leave his brother('s) behind. I know, that's a bad one.
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Old 07-27-11, 07:47 PM
  #73  
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I sure hope so. He was my rider to win this year and if Cadel wasn't so good at time trialing I think he might have had it.
Poor Andy... 2nd three years in a row. You watch, next year is his year. I think if he can get second that many times first is right around the corner.
He is after all only 26, he has a long way to go before he even thinks about retiring.
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Old 08-07-11, 07:21 AM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by hyhuu View Post
It's possible. But if Contador decides to become a tdF specialist then he is doomed.
AC has already said he's not riding the Giro anymore. I really dont see AS beating an in-form and properly peaked AC in the TdF anytime soon.
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Old 08-07-11, 03:31 PM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by guadzilla View Post
AC has already said he's not riding the Giro anymore. I really dont see AS beating an in-form and properly peaked AC in the TdF anytime soon.
I'm actually glad to hear that. The tour is the only race where he has any legitimate competition, even if he's under the weather or has a bit of bad luck.
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