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The Next Big Thing?

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Road Cycling “It is by riding a bicycle that you learn the contours of a country best, since you have to sweat up the hills and coast down them. Thus you remember them as they actually are, while in a motor car only a high hill impresses you, and you have no such accurate remembrance of country you have driven through as you gain by riding a bicycle.” -- Ernest Hemingway

The Next Big Thing?

Old 01-11-21, 07:10 PM
  #1  
profjmb
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The Next Big Thing?

The following have all become big, with many but not all thinking they're desirable:

Electronic shifting
Wider tires
Deep wheels
Disc brakes
Power meters

Anything new or on the horizon that looks important? (Thinking of a new bike and want to make sure I at least am aware.)
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Old 01-11-21, 07:42 PM
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The only thing I can think of that is available now would be completely hidden cabling/wiring or perhaps storage in the frame for spare tube, etc.
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Old 01-11-21, 10:58 PM
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Thru Axles
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Old 01-11-21, 11:34 PM
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#lightweightnon-aeroiseverything
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Old 01-12-21, 12:54 AM
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Anytjong coming up that looks important? No.

Changes on the horizon?
- increased use of recyclable materials in packaging.
- a push towards lighter bikes since the last few years trended away from that.
- a push for cable routing that isnt the result of your bike engineer hating you.
- more threaded bbs.

Well I guess 1, 3, and 4 could be viewed as important in some ways. So sure- there is important stuff on the horizon.

What isnt important is 13sp Campy or making an ebike look even more like an analog bike.
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Old 01-12-21, 06:54 AM
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Equally or more important than getting the next "improvement" is not getting stuck with something that is on it's way out. Press fit bottom brackets, QRs on disc bikes and tight tire clearance come to mind.
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Old 01-12-21, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by shelbyfv View Post
Equally or more important than getting the next "improvement" is not getting stuck with something that is on it's way out. Press fit bottom brackets, QRs on disc bikes and tight tire clearance come to mind.
I'd add post-mounts to that list. You can easily adapt flat mount frames/forks to post mount calipers, but not the other way around. TA and flat-mount have become the standard, but there are still stragglers.

PF BBs don't bother me so much as long as there's enough room for a decent adapter (I think that Trek's outgoing BB90 was really the only one with too-narrow of a bore to accommodate).

And yeah, I want ~30mm tire clearance, but will take 28mm in a pinch.
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Old 01-12-21, 03:57 PM
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I think that the industry has gone a bit hog-wild on the low pressure thing. ENVE, Zipp and even Giant don't recommend pressures above 5 bar or so. In the near future, tire and wheel technology will get good enough that hookless wheels will be able to support pressures that people actually want to run. I used to think I was on the ultra low end of the spectrum for running 55psi in 28mm tires at 135lbs. I'm not sure how 75psi is supposed to suffice for a 220lb dude running 25mm tires.

So once the tech catches up, the marketers will fire up again and tell us how running high pressures is actually faster in many cases, like when climbing out of the saddle or on smooth roads or for heavier riders. But people will have gotten used to the cushy rides + grip provided by fat tires and low pressure, so there will be a strong demand for bikes with some sort of suspension. We already see that happening with the roubaix, madone, domane etc. but I think it will go mainstream enough to dominate the WT.

I also predict that, if wide rims get popular enough, we will even see one or two radial ply tires. These tires will be optimized for those wide rims, just like motorcycle and car tires currently are. They will probably be more compliant, more efficient and grippier, but less durable. We'll probably see it in use at a WT TT. We've seen radials semi-recently, like the Schwalbe Ultremo R.1 and the Maxxis Radiale but those were made when everyone was using ultra skinny rims. I'd probably want something like a 28-29mm actual sized tire (so 25c marked) on 23mm (internal) rims.

I would go with something like the Domane (suspension, tire clearance, T47) with wide rims (the Bontrager Aeolus 3V is good). The integrated storage is also a good future-proof feature. Saddle bags are probably going to get unfashionable in the next couple of decades.

Last edited by smashndash; 01-12-21 at 06:38 PM.
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Old 01-12-21, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by smashndash View Post
Saddle bags are probably going to get unfashionable in the next couple of decades.
On road racing style bikes, saddle bags have never been fashionable.
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Old 01-12-21, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by noodle soup View Post
On road racing style bikes, saddle bags have never been fashionable.
Fine. Even less fashionable due to the introduction and normalization of integrated storage? I personally hate carrying stuff in my pockets... not sure why so many roadies prefer that over using a saddle bag.
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Old 01-12-21, 06:44 PM
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Originally Posted by smashndash View Post

So once the tech catches up, the marketers will fire up again and tell us how running high pressures is actually faster in many cases,
It's faster in almost every case.

That's what has been lost in the hype: the fact that bigger tires only have lower CRR than smaller tires when inflated to the same pressures. 25mm at 80 psi is slower than 25mm at 90 or 100 psi.
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Old 01-12-21, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by rubiksoval View Post
It's faster in almost every case.

That's what has been lost in the hype: the fact that bigger tires only have lower CRR than smaller tires when inflated to the same pressures. 25mm at 80 psi is slower than 25mm at 90 or 100 psi.
Yeah, it's quite infuriating that the average roadie or even industry insider has no concept of hoop stress and thinks comparing an 80psi 23mm tire and 80psi 28mm tire is somehow apples to apples. It's a little mind-blowing that they were essentially able to throw a firmer tire on a steel drum and convince all of "us" that 2+2 = 5 all of a sudden.

My predictions aren't based entirely on objective reality. They're what I believe the industry will shove down our throats regardless of the truth.
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Old 01-12-21, 08:36 PM
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Rim brakes.
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Old 01-12-21, 08:51 PM
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Electric bike technology.

Eventually they'll make it from the portly bikes currently out with 50 mile range to some featherlight that will do 200 miles on a charge. Just wait, it'll happen!
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Old 01-12-21, 09:00 PM
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Custom tailored 3D printed saddles will become reasonably priced and popular.

Last edited by tyrion; 01-12-21 at 09:03 PM.
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Old 01-13-21, 05:18 AM
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Old 01-13-21, 09:24 AM
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Road tubeless.
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Old 01-13-21, 09:36 AM
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Dropper posts on road bikes will start becoming the rim brake vs disc brake fight this year.
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Old 01-13-21, 09:53 AM
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I've never ridden a bike with less than 32 mm tires so "wide tires" isn't something new to me. But being new to road biking I really like good disc brakes and, especially, my power meter. Though I think both of these are minor compared to an e-bike. My wife and I can ride together now with each of us putting out the same relative effort. And nothing beats being able to do that.
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Old 01-13-21, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Canker View Post
Dropper posts on road bikes will start becoming the rim brake vs disc brake fight this year.
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Old 01-13-21, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Canker View Post
Dropper posts on road bikes will start becoming the rim brake vs disc brake fight this year.
Ugh, that would be absurd to see as commonplace. Whats scary is that while it sounds dumb, it is totally something that I could see happening because- well this industry of marginal gains and marketing hype is just that disconnected from reality.
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Old 01-13-21, 08:03 PM
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Bike aware driverless cars should open up a lot more open road space to those cyclists too nervous to ride off the mup.
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Old 01-13-21, 08:48 PM
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Originally Posted by znomit View Post
Bike aware driverless cars should open up a lot more open road space to those cyclists too nervous to ride off the mup.
Yeah nah, that idea has been cancelled indefinitely
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Old 01-13-21, 09:24 PM
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Originally Posted by indyfabz View Post
Rim brakes.
First thing I thought of.
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Old 01-13-21, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted by popeye View Post
First thing I thought of.
Can’t wait for all the threads asking how to convert disk brake bikes to rim brakes. Next will be the threads asking how narrow a tire can I run on my XYZ rim. 😀
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