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Anybody thinking about cutting back on group rides b/c of Delta?

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Anybody thinking about cutting back on group rides b/c of Delta?

Old 08-05-21, 11:41 PM
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
Does anyone on this forum know Larry? Know anyone who knows Larry within 6 degrees of separation. In close to 20:years on BF, I’ve seen my share of trolls. I have to give Larry some cred however on trolling on almost every possible issue imaginable. I can’t believe there actually is a real Larry.
kj43 saw me, I yelled at him to go catch someone he was chasing.

Guys covid is here to stay, if youre vaccinated you are safe and the unvaccinated are asking for it anyways and don't really care. If youre afraid of getting covid and you are vaccinated I don't really know what to tell you, its not going away, treat it like any other virus. Would you stop going to a group ride because its flu season?
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Old 08-06-21, 02:30 AM
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I've been riding with the same group of about 10 friends throughout the pandemic (in the early days it was all on Zwift, but once restrictions were eased we began to meet-up regularly). And I will continue to ride with that same group of friends. We are all vaccinated and take all the reasonable precautions we can whether we are together or not. Some of us work in high risk environments (I work in a university, a couple work in schools, and there is a nurse and police officer among us). I have been avoiding mass start events since the pandemic kicked off, but I am making an exception for Etape Loch Ness at the end of the month. Originally, it was supposed to go ahead in April 2020, but like most things, didn't happen. But, at the start, I will be masked up until the group begins to break up and I am just left with my mates.
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Old 08-06-21, 03:18 AM
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I didn't even hear about this delta thing until yesterday when my nurse daughter told me. I have no interest in the virus, news in general or even the world outside of my little world anymore. The only effect the virus has on my life is making me carry a mask when I go out on the off chance some store makes you wear one and they all seem to have different rules. There is a McDonald's in my town and you can go in with no mask, sit down and eat and everything is normal. The BK right next to it only has drive though. The Taco Bell next to it will let you go inside and order but you can't sit and eat. There's no logic to any of it.

But I actually don't mind wearing a mask because then no one can see my ugly face haha.
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Old 08-06-21, 03:43 AM
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Not sure why you worry about other riders being vaccinated or not. According to the CDC's own studies, vaccinated people can carry the same viral loads as unvaccinated people and they can infect other people just the same.

From the Associated Press: " Walensky cited data from the last few days, still unpublished, taken from 100 samples from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with COVID infections. They found that the amount of virus in the noses and throats of vaccinated infected people was nearly "indistinguishable" from what was found in unvaccinated people, confirming what some experts have suspected. The increased viral load associated with the Delta variant appears to make vaccinated people equal spreaders of the virus."

Last edited by BHG6; 08-06-21 at 03:46 AM.
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Old 08-06-21, 04:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Bah Humbug
Until we learn that it actually transmits differently from the original strains, I’m not going to assume it does. That would be like wearing gloves in public because Delta “might” transmit through touch.

I never stopped wearing a mask in public though, and will not until this thing is actually gone from the public. For realsies.
Well, be prepared to wear a mask forever because this is a flu strain. They do not go away...ever.
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Old 08-06-21, 05:03 AM
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Originally Posted by BHG6
Not sure why you worry about other riders being vaccinated or not. According to the CDC's own studies, vaccinated people can carry the same viral loads as unvaccinated people and they can infect other people just the same.

From the Associated Press: " Walensky cited data from the last few days, still unpublished, taken from 100 samples from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with COVID infections. They found that the amount of virus in the noses and throats of vaccinated infected people was nearly "indistinguishable" from what was found in unvaccinated people, confirming what some experts have suspected. The increased viral load associated with the Delta variant appears to make vaccinated people equal spreaders of the virus."
What studies?

The one from India? Where the vaccine wasn't the ones authorized by FDA?
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Old 08-06-21, 06:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest
I'm not cutting back, I didn't do group rides before covid. 🙃

That said I do think you're safe outside. I do group other sports and Delta isn't changing that. You need some large number of viral particles to become infected, indoor vs outdoor air makes a huge difference in how much of somebody else's breath you take in.



There's legitimate question about what degree vaccinated people may be able to spread the virus. Apparently you build up systemic immunity that isn't present in your nose and throat where the virus takes hold. We just don't know.
Took me a minute to find this, because I heard it on the radio several days ago. I think it supports your point, above. You have to read a ways down in the story to get to this part. Throw in the fact that Delta is so much more transmissible, and it starts to look like even outdoor activities, especially in a crowd, might be dicey.
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Old 08-06-21, 06:50 AM
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Originally Posted by BHG6
Not sure why you worry about other riders being vaccinated or not. According to the CDC's own studies, vaccinated people can carry the same viral loads as unvaccinated people and they can infect other people just the same.

From the Associated Press: " Walensky cited data from the last few days, still unpublished, taken from 100 samples from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with COVID infections. They found that the amount of virus in the noses and throats of vaccinated infected people was nearly "indistinguishable" from what was found in unvaccinated people, confirming what some experts have suspected. The increased viral load associated with the Delta variant appears to make vaccinated people equal spreaders of the virus."
What you (and so many others spreading this nonsense) miss is the part about these being INFECTED individuals.

Yes, INFECTED individuals appear to spread the virus equally, regardless of vaccine status.

HOWEVER, vaccinated people are far less likely to become infected.

Thus, vaccinated people are far less likely to be spreading the virus.
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Old 08-06-21, 07:38 AM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan
Let me amend that. I know that most of my ride partners are vaccinated, but I don't know if all are. Odds are, some aren't.
Do what I do: Ask them.

If they are, they'll tell you. If they respond with a hostile "It's no one else's business if I am or not", that means they're not.
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Old 08-06-21, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by pgjackson
Well, be prepared to wear a mask forever because this is a flu strain. They do not go away...ever.
COVID-19 definitely is not a flu (influenza) strain. It is a coronavirus.
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Old 08-06-21, 08:43 AM
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I did RAGBRAI last week which is right when the CDC said even fully vaccinated need to mask up inside. Probably 1 in 400 wore masks in stores or large crowds during the week.

At this point in the season, all my group riding is over. Its solo or family rides from here on out. If I were still group riding, I would not stop as of now. Check back in 2 months and who knows- its seems like a whole new world every couple months ever since the start of 2020.
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Old 08-06-21, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Kapusta
INFECTED individuals appear to spread the virus equally, regardless of vaccine status.

HOWEVER, vaccinated people are far less likely to become infected.

Thus, vaccinated people are far less likely to be spreading the virus.
I'm not convinced that the data support the "vaccinated people are far less likely to become infected" conclusion.

In the July COVID-19 outbreak after large gatherings in Barnstable County, Mass., where the fully vaccinated rate was about 69%:
  • 75% of the cases were in fully vaccinated people
  • 79% of the COVID-positive vaccinated people were symptomatic
  • 90% of the cases had the Delta variant
  • the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated cases appeared to be similar
These data suggest that the virus was spreading easily among the unvaccinated. Which is why the CDC recently changed the masking guidelines.
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Old 08-06-21, 09:19 AM
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I’m not cutting back on group rides, no. I’m vaccinated and quite comfortable knowing the vaccines work to prevent infection. I’m also quite comfortable being nearly completely unconcerned at this point with the fate of the non-vaccinated. Particularly among relatively affluent cyclists, where it’s a deliberate choice to remain unvaccinated, and not an issue of availability. In contrast, my concern that the needy and neglected receive access to vaccines is very high, both here and abroad.

As someone who had COVID and sought hospital care last October, and as someone with many friends in healthcare service, I’m confident that they have a good handle on how to care for infected patients, and while a surge of Delta-infected patients may be taxing and straining healthcare workers, that’s a systemic problem in the healthcare industry as opposed to a battle with a “disease we don’t understand.” They have the knowledge and tools to treat and recover most patients— it’s no mystery— but to the extent hospitals are not staffed or organized to handle the volume are problems which can be addressed without needing to eliminate the virus, the spread of which will slow eventually regardless of how many hours ER staff work.

So no, no reduction in group riding for me, although I do lament the social and economic costs and damage the unvaccinated (young kids excluded, of course) are forcing upon society.
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Old 08-06-21, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by terrymorse
I'm not convinced that the data support the "vaccinated people are far less likely to become infected" conclusion.

In the July COVID-19 outbreak after large gatherings in Barnstable County, Mass., where the fully vaccinated rate was about 69%:
  • 75% of the cases were in fully vaccinated people
  • 79% of the COVID-positive vaccinated people were symptomatic
  • 90% of the cases had the Delta variant
  • the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated cases appeared to be similar
These data suggest that the virus was spreading easily among the unvaccinated. Which is why the CDC recently changed the masking guidelines.
Thanks for prompting me to look up the report on the Barnstable case, as I was not aware of it. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

It definitely raises some concerns and questions, so I’ll be rethinking my own general attitude towards COVID precautions, but it does not increase my worry specific to group rides at this point, and I’ll continue with those.
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Old 08-06-21, 10:29 AM
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I'm still going on group rides, but the group I ride with is relatively small and doesn't keep to a tight pack. I'm still going by the report that it doesn't spread much in outdoor situations unless you're close to the person for a long time, but I'll be keeping an eye out for more info as always.

Originally Posted by LarrySellerz
if youre vaccinated you are safe
That depends on what you mean by "safe". I know someone who is vaccinated and still caught it, getting put out of commission for a couple weeks. Granted she's a nurse, so more likely to catch it than most. She also likely recovered faster than she would have if not vaccinated.

So if "not going to die" means safe, yeah you're right (hopefully). If "not going to catch it and get sick", don't be so sure.
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Old 08-06-21, 10:31 AM
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Originally Posted by terrymorse
I'm not convinced that the data support the "vaccinated people are far less likely to become infected" conclusion.

In the July COVID-19 outbreak after large gatherings in Barnstable County, Mass., where the fully vaccinated rate was about 69%:
  • 75% of the cases were in fully vaccinated people
  • 79% of the COVID-positive vaccinated people were symptomatic
  • 90% of the cases had the Delta variant
  • the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated cases appeared to be similar
These data suggest that the virus was spreading easily among the unvaccinated. Which is why the CDC recently changed the masking guidelines.
I read that hospitalizations were something like 97% unvaccinated, so it seems like we're much less likely to be hospitalized, but yes can still catch and spread it. Makes me nervous with me about to go back to work where about 1/3 of my students can't be vaccinated yet, including my own child.
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Old 08-06-21, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by terrymorse
I'm not convinced that the data support the "vaccinated people are far less likely to become infected" conclusion.

In the July COVID-19 outbreak after large gatherings in Barnstable County, Mass., where the fully vaccinated rate was about 69%:
  • 75% of the cases were in fully vaccinated people
  • 79% of the COVID-positive vaccinated people were symptomatic
  • 90% of the cases had the Delta variant
  • the viral load of vaccinated and unvaccinated cases appeared to be similar
These data suggest that the virus was spreading easily among the unvaccinated. Which is why the CDC recently changed the masking guidelines.
Let's clear something up: the CDC states (and pretty much all experts agree) that the vaccine DOES reduce the chances of being infected by the delta variant. Nationwide data continues to back this up. Why else would it be spreading so much faster through unvaccinated populations than the vaccinated population?

You are misinterpreting what those numbers above tell us. You are not alone in this, many people do, and it is perpetuating a lot of bad information. That example does NOT disprove the assertion that vaccinated people are less likely to get infected than non-vaccinated. It actually says very little about it. Here is why:

You can't just look at the proportion of vaccinated vs un-vaccinated that got infected. You need to compare that to how they are represented in the whole population (in this case, the population of the gatherings). That is what tells you how likely members of each group are to be infected. Here is an example:

Lets say you have a group of 100 people where 95% are vaccinated (*see below for reasoning)

So you have a group of 95 vaccinated, 5 un-vaccinated.

Lets say that a vaccine is 90% effective. This means that in a given scenario, a vaccinated person is 1/10 as likely to be infected as an un-vaccinated person.

OK, so lets expose this group to a spreader event. Lets say that the conditions are such that an vaccinated person has a 50% of being infected. You would expect 2.5 un-vaccinated people to be infected. The vaccinated people have 1/10 the chance of being infected as the un-vaccinated. 1/10th of 50% is 5%. 5% of 95 people is 4.75 vaccinated people infected.

SO, you end up with 2.5 vaccinated and 4.75 vaccinated people infected.

In other words, even though a vaccinated person is much less likely to get infected in this situation, they still make up a greater part of the total number of infection. THIS is why you can't use one particular scenario like this to draw a conclusion that the vaccines are not effective in reducing the likely hood of infection.

Yes, I used hypothetical numbers here. Similar results could happen with a lower vaccine effectiveness and lower vaccination rates. But it explains why the CDC is (wisely) not going to look at that and see it as a counterexample of the vaccines effectiveness, when nations data shows that vaccinated are far less likely to be infected.

Also, when looking at particular instances, there is also a certain amount of dumb luck. Maybe the spreader individuals were mostly running in particular circles of these gatherings that were disproportionately vaccinated.

What that scenario DOES show is just how much more contagious Delta is. And THIS is why the CDC is now recommending masking up, and taking extra precautions even if you are vaccinated. But it is not just this case study, it is the nationwide trends.

And this was the point I was making above: riding with a group of vaccinated people is less likely to expose you than riding with an un-vaccinated group, simply because people in the vaccinated group are less likely to be infected.

*This could reasonably happen in a part of the country and particular community that takes vaccination seriously. Vaccine status is closely tied to the social and cultural circles people are in. For example, of my 25 or so closest local friends and family, nearly 100% are vaccinated. Only the small children are not. Heck, my whole neighborhood is probably 95%. Yet we live in a county with a similar vaccination rate to Barnstable County, Mass. In other words, it is very possible in a county with a 69% vaccination rate that the rate at a given gatherings could be much, much higher, even 95%.
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Old 08-06-21, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Kapusta
Let's clear something up: the CDC states (and pretty much all experts agree) that the vaccine DOES reduce the chances of being infected by the delta variant. Nationwide data continues to back this up. Why else would it be spreading so much faster through unvaccinated populations than the vaccinated population?

You are misinterpreting what those numbers above tell us. You are not alone in this, many people do, and it is perpetuating a lot of bad information. That example does NOT disprove the assertion that vaccinated people are less likely to get infected than non-vaccinated. It actually says very little about it. Here is why:

You can't just look at the proportion of vaccinated vs un-vaccinated that got infected. You need to compare that to how they are represented in the whole population (in this case, the population of the gatherings). That is what tells you how likely members of each group are to be infected. Here is an example:

Lets say you have a group of 100 people where 95% are vaccinated (*see below for reasoning)

So you have a group of 95 vaccinated, 5 un-vaccinated.

Lets say that a vaccine is 90% effective. This means that in a given scenario, a vaccinated person is 1/10 as likely to be infected as an un-vaccinated person.

OK, so lets expose this group to a spreader event. Lets say that the conditions are such that an vaccinated person has a 50% of being infected. You would expect 2.5 un-vaccinated people to be infected. The vaccinated people have 1/10 the chance of being infected as the un-vaccinated. 1/10th of 50% is 5%. 5% of 95 people is 4.75 vaccinated people infected.

SO, you end up with 2.5 vaccinated and 4.75 vaccinated people infected.

In other words, even though a vaccinated person is much less likely to get infected in this situation, they still make up a greater part of the total number of infection. THIS is why you can't use one particular scenario like this to draw a conclusion that the vaccines are not effective in reducing the likely hood of infection.

Yes, I used hypothetical numbers here. Similar results could happen with a lower vaccine effectiveness and lower vaccination rates. But it explains why the CDC is (wisely) not going to look at that and see it as a counterexample of the vaccines effectiveness, when nations data shows that vaccinated are far less likely to be infected.

Also, when looking at particular instances, there is also a certain amount of dumb luck. Maybe the spreader individuals were mostly running in particular circles of these gatherings that were disproportionately vaccinated.

What that scenario DOES show is just how much more contagious Delta is. And THIS is why the CDC is now recommending masking up, and taking extra precautions even if you are vaccinated. But it is not just this case study, it is the nationwide trends.

And this was the point I was making above: riding with a group of vaccinated people is less likely to expose you than riding with an un-vaccinated group, simply because people in the vaccinated group are less likely to be infected.

*This could reasonably happen in a part of the country and particular community that takes vaccination seriously. Vaccine status is closely tied to the social and cultural circles people are in. For example, of my 25 or so closest local friends and family, nearly 100% are vaccinated. Only the small children are not. Heck, my whole neighborhood is probably 95%. Yet we live in a county with a similar vaccination rate to Barnstable County, Mass. In other words, it is very possible in a county with a 69% vaccination rate that the rate at a given gatherings could be much, much higher, even 95%.
This.

The event attendees came from all over the country.

Thus, the Massachusetts vaccine rate is irrelevant

We also do not have good data on the vaccine rates within the community that attended the large "gatherings"
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Old 08-06-21, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by GhostRider62
This.

The event attendees came from all over the country.

Thus, the Massachusetts vaccine rate is irrelevant

We also do not have good data on the vaccine rates within the community that attended the large "gatherings"
Exactly.

And this is why, in the CDC study of this event referenced in an earlier post, they state in the Discussion section:

"The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, data from this report are insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, including the Delta variant, during this outbreak."
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Old 08-06-21, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Kapusta
Exactly.

And this is why, in the CDC study of this event referenced in an earlier post, they state in the Discussion section:

"The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, data from this report are insufficient to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, including the Delta variant, during this outbreak."
But that little footnote doesn't excuse how they use so-called data from the so-called study or the garbage study from India that they allude to.

As you might tell, I have zero confidence in the CDC and prefer to make my own decisions.
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Old 08-06-21, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by terrymorse
COVID-19 definitely is not a flu (influenza) strain. It is a coronavirus.
​​​​​​Yeah, well, my car isn't a bike either, but I still hold the KOM. Who cares about details and reality?
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Old 08-06-21, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by GhostRider62
But that little footnote doesn't excuse how they use so-called data from the so-called study or the garbage study from India that they allude to.
.
You’re not even making any sense.

That “little detail” is is the whole point. The data from that study does not allow a conclusion as to whether or not the vaccine reduces the risk of infection from the Delta variant. Which, had do you been paying attention to this conversation, is the point being debated. There are multiple conversation threads going on here. Try to pay attention who you are responding to.
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Old 08-06-21, 12:40 PM
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It's outdoors and our team had a pretty good compliance on meeting/vaxxing and such. But the after drink is indoors at that ride, so I am not just headed home.

The in town ride not with our team, both the "club run TT" and the in town group ride meet outdoors after for a drink. So I choose to still stay for a chat at those.
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Old 08-06-21, 01:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Kapusta
You are misinterpreting what those numbers above tell us.

<theoretical numbers game snipped>

It still takes some rather sophisticated mental gymnastics to rationalize away this:
  1. ~69% of the population was fully vaccinated
  2. 75% of the positive cases were fully vaccinated
It also doesn't take a leap of logic to suggest that the asymptomatic infections of the vaccinated group were almost certainly under-reported.

For my part, I'm still doing group rides. But I've gone back to wearing a mask indoors. As required by my county's Universal Indoor Face Covering Order.
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Old 08-06-21, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by BHG6
Not sure why you worry about other riders being vaccinated or not. According to the CDC's own studies, vaccinated people can carry the same viral loads as unvaccinated people and they can infect other people just the same.

From the Associated Press: " Walensky cited data from the last few days, still unpublished, taken from 100 samples from vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with COVID infections. They found that the amount of virus in the noses and throats of vaccinated infected people was nearly "indistinguishable" from what was found in unvaccinated people, confirming what some experts have suspected. The increased viral load associated with the Delta variant appears to make vaccinated people equal spreaders of the virus."
Yes, when infected with the Delta variant, vaccinated people can carry the same viral load as unvaccinated people. But, they are still less likely to get the Deltas variant than unvaccinated people.
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