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The bubble is upon us?

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Road Cycling “It is by riding a bicycle that you learn the contours of a country best, since you have to sweat up the hills and coast down them. Thus you remember them as they actually are, while in a motor car only a high hill impresses you, and you have no such accurate remembrance of country you have driven through as you gain by riding a bicycle.” -- Ernest Hemingway

The bubble is upon us?

Old 01-11-22, 12:18 PM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by Koyote View Post
To me, all of this makes it much more attractive to purchase a custom frame (or a boutique production frame like Crust) and build it up.
You're not alone. Have fun getting the parts to build it.

I just sent out a Lynskey a customer ordered up. She mentioned how she was happy to wait for the frame. It took like 8 months or something. Her hubs took 6 months (Chris King) but I was able to get them in about the time she got her frame. I was anticipating that would be the longest wait. I had the bike in house for over a year just trying to get some GRX parts.

Everyone is building up a custom bike right now.
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Old 01-11-22, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001 View Post
You're not alone. Have fun getting the parts to build it.

I just sent out a Lynskey a customer ordered up. She mentioned how she was happy to wait for the frame. It took like 8 months or something. Her hubs took 6 months (Chris King) but I was able to get them in about the time she got her frame. I was anticipating that would be the longest wait. I had the bike in house for over a year just trying to get some GRX parts.

Everyone is building up a custom bike right now.
Oh, sure, I get that parts availability is still problematic...But I'm not currently looking for a new bike. I just meant that, if the big brands are building monopoly power on the retail side, they're gonna push up prices...And if the margins are narrowing, then (next time I'm in the market) I'd rather just go custom.

Summer 2020, out somewhere in the car with my wife, I was telling her about the bike shortage. At the end of the story, as we pulled into the garage, I waved my hand at the five bikes hanging from the wall and said, "See, wasn't I smart to stock up?" She liked that.
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Old 01-11-22, 01:05 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Koyote View Post
Oh, sure, I get that parts availability is still problematic...But I'm not currently looking for a new bike. I just meant that, if the big brands are building monopoly power on the retail side, they're gonna push up prices...And if the margins are narrowing, then (next time I'm in the market) I'd rather just go custom.

Summer 2020, out somewhere in the car with my wife, I was telling her about the bike shortage. At the end of the story, as we pulled into the garage, I waved my hand at the five bikes hanging from the wall and said, "See, wasn't I smart to stock up?" She liked that.
HAHAHAHA - yeah I bought a bike shop to store mine.
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Old 01-11-22, 03:24 PM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001 View Post
Here's the kicker - prices haven't actually "gone up" it's just that we are now able to actually get the MSRP for an item. Those prices are never going back down except for like Shimano with the OE greymarket flood that's coming. So the parts have "always" been that price but no one has been paying it. it's kind of what shops have been complaining about for years

Want to know the really scary thing? All of the OEs are now announcing actual price increases. Not only that but these are coming with MSRP bumps as well. before our costs just went up and they held MSRP.

So not only are your prices not going back down they will keep climbing. Shortage or not.
not what i wanted to hear when im trying to get my hands on an entire 105 groupset.
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Old 01-11-22, 04:00 PM
  #30  
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Lots of turmoil in the industry. Looks like it's going to be a rough ride for a while. It's what happens when a finely tuned (such as it was) JIT-ish system gets globally trashed and has to restart itself. I'm glad my needs are met with chasing older, higher-end bikes. They come with parts already on them and often mildly used.

Psimet..thanks for creating threads like this. Getting a better understanding of what's going on behind the curtain is very interesting.
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Old 01-11-22, 05:34 PM
  #31  
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This is fascinating. Thank you for sharing.

I continue to do my best to support my favorite local shop, but they have not been able to get anything of late. I use them for service for things I can't handle, but when I was trying to get a new bike, they weren't even taking deposits anymore. And now Trek has taken over one of our biggest local chains of shops. Just very depressing. I want to see the local guys survive - they are so important for local racing, teams, etc., but the future looks a little bleak.

Selfishly, the bike shortage pushed me to try SRAM as it was actually available on a bike I wanted, and I've been able to stock up on a few consumables. It will be nice to see stuff back in regular stock. Maybe things will be a little more normal in 3 years when I turn 50 - my wife says I can get a fancy new bike then.
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Old 01-11-22, 05:56 PM
  #32  
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It's the same for almost all of the sectors right now... Bikes, cars, even the freaking houses doubled in my area.

Add these scalpers who reserve/buy products in advance and resell them for a profit as soon as they get them and you get a nasty market. People buy Teslas nowadays to sell them a few months later or even the week after for a profit. Ford recently announced it would force the first Lightning buyers to keep the truck for X months through a no-sale provision to avoid scalpers. People bought 4-5 PS5s in early December and were selling them for twice the MSRP just before Christmas.

We've seen the same situation with smart trainers in early 2021 as well. Bikes are in high demand and so are the parts. Unfortunately, too many people are trying to take advantage of this situation in my opinion. Something is wrong with our society.
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Old 01-11-22, 06:50 PM
  #33  
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People that complain about current market conditions should just wait awhile, maybe a year or two for markets to adjust, and enjoy what they they already have. Consumerism is a major source of pollution.
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Old 01-11-22, 07:24 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by sced View Post
People that complain about current market conditions should just wait awhile, maybe a year or two for markets to adjust, and enjoy what they they already have. Consumerism is a major source of pollution.
Not all of us can, the kids keep growing. My middle kid just grew out of his 24" into a 27.5, I couldn't find a decent bike for a reasonable price that was just right, but the local shop had a c-dale trail 6 which is a decent geometry frame for XC. One fork upgrade, a proper length crank, and a 1x9 system from microshift and for 1100 I had a nicer bike than what they seem to be selling for about 1400, with air fork and lockout and down to 28lbs. Managed to get used for my daughter but haven't found a decent XS mtb on ebay or marketplace for a reasonable price. Now I'm building a new cross/road bike for my oldest since she's almost out of her road bike and the middle kid has outgrown his. If she's doing road nationals in FL it can't be on the mtb so maybe consumerism but also necessity if my kids are going to have their fun. Next year the middle kid will be racing mtb and training road and track, too young for nationals, while the oldest will do track nationals if its in PA again, several cross races and train half the time on the mtb in the woods.
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Old 01-12-22, 08:02 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Russ Roth View Post
Not all of us can, the kids keep growing. My middle kid just grew out of his 24" into a 27.5, I couldn't find a decent bike for a reasonable price that was just right, but the local shop had a c-dale trail 6 which is a decent geometry frame for XC. One fork upgrade, a proper length crank, and a 1x9 system from microshift and for 1100 I had a nicer bike than what they seem to be selling for about 1400, with air fork and lockout and down to 28lbs. Managed to get used for my daughter but haven't found a decent XS mtb on ebay or marketplace for a reasonable price. Now I'm building a new cross/road bike for my oldest since she's almost out of her road bike and the middle kid has outgrown his. If she's doing road nationals in FL it can't be on the mtb so maybe consumerism but also necessity if my kids are going to have their fun. Next year the middle kid will be racing mtb and training road and track, too young for nationals, while the oldest will do track nationals if its in PA again, several cross races and train half the time on the mtb in the woods.
Ha, I have been looking for a replacement hardtail frame for my oldest daughter. For the last couple years she was using a Marin 13" disc brake frame built up with 26" components I had/bought, but we are past the end of use for that frame size. It was a randombikeparts.com frame purchase and there isnt anything close to that now. I can get older Trek 930 frames for 2x as much as I bought the Marin disc frame, or I can buy some really expensive 26" disc frames.
She doesnt push it hard when she rides in the woods so there is no need for anything modern/expensive and everything could just be swapped to a larger frame(even the fork, I cut it to make sure that was an option). But its looking like she will have to use my wife's 90s updated 930 for now.

Nothing near the level of use/need that you mention though. I just bought a road frame on the c&v forum for her since she also outgrew her current road bike. Its a steel frame that is twice as old as her and I will move the 2x9 drivetrain over. I cant imagine having to buy on a budget in this market, with the kid riding competitively in other states.
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Old 01-12-22, 09:26 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by sced View Post
People that complain about current market conditions should just wait awhile, maybe a year or two for markets to adjust, and enjoy what they they already have. Consumerism is a major source of pollution.
That's what people said two years ago when this great adventure began.

On my end, I'm currently not able to put my hand on a set of tires. While I understand that consumerism is a source of pollution, it's needed. Overconsumption isn't. When someone is not even able to buy the 2 tires of his preference, there is a problem.

On a similar note, I tried to reserve a gravel bike in advance (called in November 2021 hoping to get one by April-May 2022) and only 1 LBS was able to put my name on a waiting list for a potential delivery in November 2022. It is insane.

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Old 01-12-22, 10:33 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by eduskator View Post
On a similar note, I tried to reserve a gravel bike in advance (called in November 2021 hoping to get one by April-May 2022) and only 1 LBS was able to put my name on a waiting list for a potential delivery in November 2022. It is insane.
That long of a wait is in part based on what you are choosing to buy. A local shop has multiple models and sizes of Jamis Renegade bikes in stock for sale. And they have a ton of Domane models and sizes.
Canyon has multiple sizes and models of their Grizl gravel bike in stock(as of 2 days ago). And more boutique brands are available earlier too- the Fairlight Secan 2.5 has multiple sizes and colors available in March.
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Old 01-12-22, 11:58 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by eduskator View Post
<snip>1 LBS was able to put my name on a waiting list for a potential delivery in November 2022. It is insane.
...and to me that seems like a really quick turn. HAHAHA. Seriously though it's because of the brand/model. Honestly you could probably get it before then if you buy it off that brand's consumer facing website.
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Old 01-12-22, 12:47 PM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr View Post
That long of a wait is in part based on what you are choosing to buy. A local shop has multiple models and sizes of Jamis Renegade bikes in stock for sale. And they have a ton of Domane models and sizes.
Canyon has multiple sizes and models of their Grizl gravel bike in stock(as of 2 days ago). And more boutique brands are available earlier too- the Fairlight Secan 2.5 has multiple sizes and colors available in March.
It's fascinating what different shops can get. I tried to buy a renegade last year; my local shop had 2 in stock, both too big for me. I tried to reserve one in my size and was told that they had little control over what Jamis was shipping them. They wouldn't take a deposit because they couldn't guarantee I would get the model / size I wanted. To my knowledge, they still haven't gotten one. I finally bought a Lauf. It made me a little sad as I like supporting local shops, but ultimately, I do love the Lauf.

edit: just went and read my comment. Man, I should not type on my phone. Fixed typos.

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Old 01-12-22, 12:56 PM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by ericcox View Post
It's fascinating what different shops can get. I tried to buy a renegade last year; my local shop had 2 in stock, both too big for me. I tried to reserve one in my size and was told that they had little control over what Jamis was shipping them. they wouldn't take a deposit because they couldn't guarantee I would get the model / size I wanted. Too my knowledge, they still haven't gotten one. I finally bought a Lauf. It made me a little sad as I like supporting local shops, but ultimately, I do love the Lauf.
Agreed on the seeming randomness of available inventory.
What's really funny is the shop I mentioned hasn't been a Jamis dealer in the past. They just showed up later half of '21. It's traditionally a Trek and Giant dealer.
My area didn't have a Jamis dealer- the closest was 60mi away and that shop would only special order. So definitely a win for Jamis.
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Old 01-13-22, 07:54 AM
  #41  
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Hi All,

Fascinating perspective from Psimet, he definitely knows what he is talking about and presents an excellent high level viewpoint. I would like to know Psimet's opinion of what I would consider the "sleeping giant'.

Several China based bicycle manufactures are selling bikes and carbon wheels consumer direct at prices much lower than the Big Three. I would suggest that if these manufacturers get their marketing act together to build their brand and open up more USA based warehouses (i.e. ICAN), and possibly even retail outlets, the Big Three would face some very serious competition. I would tend to think the Big Three have considered this possibility and could be concerned if this were to actually happen.

I wonder what Psimet would think of this?

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Old 01-13-22, 07:55 AM
  #42  
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Random, wildly uninformed opinions about the bike industry in 2022/2023. Long story short: I think 2023 is going to be the time to buy bikes. Tons of stuff is aligning.

1. Tons of people panic-bought high-end bikes in 2020 and 2021. These people will realize by late 2022 that they don't ride these bikes and be looking to sell them. I think we'll see a flood of used bikes start to rise in 2022.
2. Omicron is forcing China to re-evaluate and loosen the CCP's draconian COVID policies. This should help address the largest supply-chain issue.
3. Chinese direct sales companies are making some really good stuff and are making real headway. Winspace, Seka and ICAN frames. Farsports, LUN and Light Bicycle wheels. I'm starting to see more of this stuff show up on group rides with happy owners. Gone are the days of bootleg Chinarello garbage. Also, this stuff is generally readily available and custom built to order quickly. Really good products with really good service and prices that are 1/3rd of major brands. (edit: lol, just realized that the poster right above me made this point. Yeah, what ^^ said).
4. Shimano is building $300MM worth of new manufacturing capacity focused on high-end bike parts. This capacity should be online by the end of 2022.
5. Many experts seem to be predicting that the shipping and logistical snafus that have been plaguing supply chains will be worked out in 2022.
6. Enthusiasts like me are deeply annoyed with the fact that what was a $10K bike in 2019 became a $13.5K bike in 2021 and what was a $5,500 bike in 2019 became a $7,800 bike in 2021. Road bike pricing is just absurd right now. As the supply chain issues start to be resolves, there has never been a better time for new brands to enter the market and existing alternatives to gain market share. This has been building for a while and I believe the latest price increases are the final straw. I agree with Psimet: 2023 is the year where direct sales finally starts to become mainstream over in North America.

One more very personal opinion: I myself am increasingly less willing to tolerate LBS ********. Some of this is the fault of the shops themselves, and some of this is just a reality of the business that has forced shops to cut corners. Still, the surly/untrained/know-nothing employees, the ridiculous pricing compared to online options, the lack of inventory (they never have what you're looking for), the frequently garbage mechanics, the disorganized and dirty shops etc... I've kind of had it. LBSs already have one foot in the grave as Psimet points out. One part of me bemoans the fact that if independent bike shops go away it will be tough to get a broken spoke fixed. The other part of me is annoyed that something simple like fixing a broken spoke costs $95, takes ten days, you have to deal with rude employees that act as if they're doing you a favor (and expect to be tipped heavily) and is often poorly done when you get the wheel back. Again: economic reality is why a lot of these conditions exist, some of it is not the shops' fault. Still, I can't stand it any more.

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Old 01-13-22, 08:02 AM
  #43  
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Of course bike prices should have risen.

I paid $1.60/gal for heating oil in early January of 2021, it is now $3.25/gal.

Not much doesn't rely upon energy.

We can't get the bikes we want because we are choosing the wrong models? Sounds like the meat counter. No steak, eat hamburger.
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Old 01-13-22, 08:21 AM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by Hiro11 View Post
The other part of me is annoyed that something simple like fixing a broken spoke costs $95, takes ten days, you have to deal with rude employees that act as if they're doing you a favor (and expect to be tipped heavily) and is often poorly done when you get the wheel back.
I simply don't believe this anecdote.
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Old 01-13-22, 08:42 AM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by Koyote View Post
I simply don't believe this anecdote.
*IF* this happened, I would be willing to bet that it was a "I really don't want to deal with you" quote, made with the hopes that a difficult customer would walk.
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Old 01-13-22, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by WhyFi View Post
*IF* this happened, I would be willing to bet that it was a "I really don't want to deal with you" quote, made with the hopes that a difficult customer would walk.
There's hyperbole, and then there's bs. That story is bs. It undercuts the poster's point...Makes it laughable, really.
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Old 01-13-22, 08:57 AM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by Koyote View Post
There's hyperbole, and then there's bs. That story is bs. It undercuts the poster's point...Makes it laughable, really.
Eh. I don't work at an LBS, but I've worked customer service, and I've done worse to make a ****** customer walk. I'm not saying that it's typical, or even likely, simply that it's within the realm of possibility, but that there's probably a story behind it.
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Old 01-13-22, 09:02 AM
  #48  
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Old 01-13-22, 09:11 AM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001 View Post
You're not alone. Have fun getting the parts to build it.

I just sent out a Lynskey a customer ordered up. She mentioned how she was happy to wait for the frame. It took like 8 months or something. Her hubs took 6 months (Chris King) but I was able to get them in about the time she got her frame. I was anticipating that would be the longest wait. I had the bike in house for over a year just trying to get some GRX parts.

Everyone is building up a custom bike right now.
Great point and that’s why a lot of us are fishing the used pond for components or building outside of the conventional markets. The whole situation is ridiculous as bike prices pre-pandemic were grossly over inflated, a premium bike is not worth the $5k tag, that now has risen to $7k if you can find one. A lot of this stupidity is engrained in the industry practices and sales models. I hope this doesn't happen but they will flood the markets and the Independent LBS will be the winners, the branded stores will lose out due to their inability to change or do business outside of their models. Reciently my Domane needed a bottom bracket bearing, the Trek store wouldn’t repair it because they didnt have access to Trek authorized parts, although they are readily available on the net. This type of arcane practice shows the level of inflexibility instilled in their models.
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Old 01-13-22, 09:15 AM
  #50  
Hiro11
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Originally Posted by Koyote View Post
I simply don't believe this anecdote.
Spoke broken on an ENVE SES AR. They had the spoke in stock. They charged me for replacement and a "major truing". Tire mounted tubeless and required removal and retaping. In fairness, it was a lot of work for a broken spoke but I still got ripped.

Last edited by Hiro11; 01-13-22 at 09:29 AM.
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