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The bubble is upon us?

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The bubble is upon us?

Old 01-14-22, 09:57 AM
  #101  
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Originally Posted by sloppy12 View Post
Should have used amazon. you could have gotten all that for $250 and had it in two days. lol
Please link Assos Centos EVO or Lazer G1 MIPS for under 200 bucks on Amazon? There is zero absolutely zero price incentive to use Amazon for good bike stuff. Fast delivery? Sure.
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Old 01-14-22, 10:35 AM
  #102  
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Originally Posted by GhostRider62 View Post
Please link Assos Centos EVO or Lazer G1 MIPS for under 200 bucks on Amazon? There is zero absolutely zero price incentive to use Amazon for good bike stuff. Fast delivery? Sure.
Calm down ghost rider its sarcasm.
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Old 01-14-22, 10:49 AM
  #103  
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When a hobby or pastime is 'fetishized' (my word) in a stratified class system where the upper class has loads of disposable income, things get silly-expensive fairly quickly. Just look at high-end audio (or better, don't!).
Originally Posted by Branko D View Post
Well, you could satisfy yourself with less... but you won't. There's a perfectly functioning road bike, in stock, in the local Decathlon store with 105, rim brakes, Fulcrum racing 6 wheels, alloy frame and CF fork for a bit less than a thousand Euro. It's a lot of bike for the money, really. Hell, you can get a perfectly adequate road bike with Microshift stuff on it (which works just fine) for half that.

The kit can be also had at all sorts of price points, too. I have a good amount of budget kit which is really perfectly adequate (mostly from the local Decathlon store, their upper end of the range is actually good), but I also have come Castelli kit and a nice bike with (mechanical) Dura-ace and CF wheels because, well, I am closer to 40 than to 30 and I can afford it. These are, however, to an extent, luxury goods.

The current 20 year olds shouldn't feel too bad; you don't get very much for the extra cash, and when they're closing on 40 imagine what sort of awesomeness will be on sale for the middle aged men in lycra then, eh?
No kidding. Bicycles that run software are luxury goods, alright.
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Old 01-14-22, 10:58 AM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by prj71 View Post
If you are spending that much on that stuff you are doing it wrong. Amazon is your friend.

Fishing is expensive. I fly fish. Fly rods are about $800-$1000. Fly reels $200-$300. Fly Line is $70-$80. A good pair of waders is $400-$500.

I have 4 fly rods and matching reels, 4 pairs of waders, miscellaneous other fly fishing gear such as chest pack, fly box , flies, tippet etc. Do the math.

I have a good quality fly set up, & recently added a compact rig for travel & to take on the bike. Complete outfit for $105! Rod is good, reel good, line OK, leaders & bits not great.

Shoot-outs on YouTube show remarkably little difference in performance between expensive rods & inexpensive ones- like Denali vs Pinarello.
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Old 01-14-22, 11:09 AM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001 View Post
our customers overwhelmingly are the moms who have 5 bikes in the famil who want to make sure that when they pull them out to ride to school or go to get ice cream as a family that they aren't going to die. Sure they may just need air and a cleaning and a few tweaks, but they pay for my knowledgeable eye to go over every part of it and make sure their Amazon special isn't actually cracked and that the grill assembler who put it together has the fork on the right direction and the skewer actually closed.
For every mom that is your customer, there are 10 parents who treat bicycles for themselves and their children as inexpensive toys, and who let their children ride with barely functional brakes and/or drivetrains and oversized helmets worn at an angle which expose their children's foreheads. This issue may be socioeconomic but I see this even in the relatively affluent area where I live. My own wife thinks I (a) slightly overspent on my son's current ($560) and prior ($420) bikes and (b) over-maintain them because she got his first (with training wheels) from a sporting goods store and it worked "just fine."

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Old 01-14-22, 11:09 AM
  #106  
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Originally Posted by Branko D View Post
Well, you could satisfy yourself with less... but you won't. There's a perfectly functioning road bike, in stock, in the local Decathlon store with 105, rim brakes, Fulcrum racing 6 wheels, alloy frame and CF fork for a bit less than a thousand Euro. It's a lot of bike for the money, really. Hell, you can get a perfectly adequate road bike with Microshift stuff on it (which works just fine) for half that.

The kit can be also had at all sorts of price points, too. I have a good amount of budget kit which is really perfectly adequate (mostly from the local Decathlon store, their upper end of the range is actually good), but I also have come Castelli kit and a nice bike with (mechanical) Dura-ace and CF wheels because, well, I am closer to 40 than to 30 and I can afford it. These are, however, to an extent, luxury goods.

The current 20 year olds shouldn't feel too bad; you don't get very much for the extra cash, and when they're closing on 40 imagine what sort of awesomeness will be on sale for the middle aged men in lycra then, eh?
This is an excellent point. 25 years ago at age 22, my first road bike was a $400 Bianchi with downtube shifters. A year later, I upgraded to a steel Fuji team with 9 speed Ultegra (ok, it had 8 speed ultegra that I moved to the Bianchi when I got a good deal on 9spd stuff). I rode that bike for 9 years. Then when I finished my Ph.D. and had a real job, got mid-level Orbea. It was great and was my primary bike for 10 years. Then a lower priced Ridley with 105 when I gave the Orbea to my son. Our disposable income is higher now; last year I got my dream bike. Still "mid-level" in that it is a prince, not a dogma, but I have Di2 and FFWD wheels. I certainly enjoy it more, but the cheaper bikes served me well. I go thte prince because I could.

There are still bargain bikes out there, and even claris is a pretty damn good groupset. Yes, you have to spend a lot to get a top end bike, and yes, it is people with disposable income who buy them. My youngest kid's bike is an REI special with claris - it works fine. My older kid rides my orbea with still functional 10 speed ultegra. It is fine, though I need to service the rear hub. Like a lot of sports, you can easily spend a ton on cycling. I spend way too much. But it can be done on a budget.
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Old 01-14-22, 01:41 PM
  #107  
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Last time I dropped by my LBS to fix something I couldn't, I was talking with the owner who told me he'd only sold 6 bikes in the last 6 months, but was doing more than fine on just service, though of course some parts were a problem (like the spring for the Ergopower lever he was fixing for me). I looked around. The shop was FULL of bikes, but none of them were new display models. All of them were there for service.
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Old 01-14-22, 02:39 PM
  #108  
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Originally Posted by Hiro11 View Post
I live ~30 minutes to the southeast from you. You can probably guess which shop I'm talking about, it's well known. I've had similar bad experiences with another shop in the area years ago.
75% of Chicagoland is 30 minutes southeast of me. If you're talking southwest burbs then maybe you're implying Spokes in Wheaton? They're pretty much a Giant store though I thought. They charge an arm and a leg for everything but they're still around so enough people must like them. Otherwise I can't think of anyone specifically. Could be anyone. Every store here is well known. Everyone's prices are going up as well. That and - this is "Chicago". Getting a meal from Portillo's for our family of 4 is $40-$50.

It's OK to say their name. People that have had problems with me never hesitate to throw my name around. That and there aren't many shops that I think have no value but every shop has some bad stories.
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Old 01-14-22, 02:51 PM
  #109  
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Off the subject, but I saw a McSomeone or Another with a Psimet tag on the Alpe du Zwift this morning. I thought that was kind of neat.
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Old 01-14-22, 03:04 PM
  #110  
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Originally Posted by WhyFi View Post
Off the subject, but I saw a McSomeone or Another with a Psimet tag on the Alpe du Zwift this morning. I thought that was kind of neat.
HAHAHAHA - yeah. Pat McClarty. on our team. I've been told he does well in the make believe racing stuff. - He's always going on about Zwift in the team chat.

EDIT - I was out there yesterday, albeit not on the alpe. Anymore I ride as P. SIMET
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Old 01-14-22, 03:12 PM
  #111  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001 View Post
HAHAHAHA - yeah. Pat McClarty. on our team. I've been told he does well in the make believe racing stuff. - He's always going on about Zwift in the team chat.

EDIT - I was out there yesterday, albeit not on the alpe. Anymore I ride as P. SIMET
Now Zwift-stalking.
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Old 01-14-22, 03:13 PM
  #112  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001 View Post
75% of Chicagoland is 30 minutes southeast of me. If you're talking southwest burbs then maybe you're implying Spokes in Wheaton? They're pretty much a Giant store though I thought. They charge an arm and a leg for everything but they're still around so enough people must like them. Otherwise I can't think of anyone specifically. Could be anyone. Every store here is well known. Everyone's prices are going up as well. That and - this is "Chicago". Getting a meal from Portillo's for our family of 4 is $40-$50.

It's OK to say their name. People that have had problems with me never hesitate to throw my name around. That and there aren't many shops that I think have no value but every shop has some bad stories.
I agree, but the poster hasn't complained about the quality of the work - only about the price. And complaining about price AFTER the work is done, when you could've/should've/might've asked about the price ahead of time, is whiny. I'm always amazed by people who voluntarily enter into transactions, get precisely what they expected, and then claim to have been "screwed." If you really feel that way, then you were a fool for entering into the transaction in the first place.
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Old 01-14-22, 03:17 PM
  #113  
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Originally Posted by WhyFi View Post
Now Zwift-stalking.
let me apologize up front for not riding often and being immensely slow when I do.
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Old 01-14-22, 03:55 PM
  #114  
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I'm not sure I'd judge much of the bike industry by January sales. Isn't this always a "dead" month? A lot could change by March or April.

I think shortages are still impacting multiple industries around the world.

But, yes, we will see changes with respect to COVID. I thought fitness centers were reopening, but Omicron could close them up again.

But, yes, eventually those bikes will be forgotten once again in the basement or back of the garage.

I do think there are signs that the economy is struggling which may actually be good news for the bike industry.
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Old 01-15-22, 07:41 AM
  #115  
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Originally Posted by Hiro11 View Post
I'm saying I brought a wheel in with a broken spoke and 10 days and $95 later I walked out with the wheel fixed.
So, you brought in a job, had to wait 10 days, paid what you had agreed to pay for the job, and you feel you were "ripped"?
Did you ever consider that the shop just may have had other jobs waiting that had been brought in before you arrived? If you didn't ask about the cost or time beforehand, that's on you.

Originally Posted by Erzulis Boat View Post
I do. That is the going rate for a spoke/truing job where I live. An LBS 60 miles north would charge half that.....when they were in business (they folded last year).
Do you see any correlation there? Working for cheap makes for happy customers, but doesn't necessarily keep your business afloat for long.
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Old 01-15-22, 12:34 PM
  #116  
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
I'm not sure I'd judge much of the bike industry by January sales. Isn't this always a "dead" month? A lot could change by March or April..
The trend was over pretty much the entire last quarter of last year. Had nothing to do with this January. The thing of note is that we "returned" to demand levels we would see in a "normal" or pre-covid year. Seeing that trend over the quarter and into the new year already now implies the "return" of demand to normal levels.

This takes into account the "dead months" as you mention. These are same period comparisons.

in other words no one went into December and said, "wow, this is way lower than it was in July! people must hate bikes now." Instead they went into Oct, Nov, and December and said, "the last 3 months trended the same as fall 2019 and fall 2018. Markedly below what had been usual for these months in 2020. It's possible we're back to normal levels."

Omicron is peaking and starting to drop just like it did in South Africa. We will not see the lock downs or closures we saw in the past. People are starting to remember they generally don't like bikes.
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Old 01-15-22, 12:40 PM
  #117  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001 View Post
People are starting to remember they generally don't like bikes.
Sigh. My LBS became a Trek owned store in late 2018. During the course of this pandemic it doubled in size but the additional space was almost entirely devoted to e-bikes.
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Old 01-15-22, 12:43 PM
  #118  
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Originally Posted by SoSmellyAir View Post
Sigh. My LBS became a Trek owned store in late 2018. During the course of this pandemic it doubled in size but the additional space was almost entirely devoted to e-bikes.
Yup - that's where the market and growth is. As much as all us enthusiasts want to believe that just because the stuff we like is expensive and there seems to be a short supply of it that we are somehow the key to this industry we just aren't. *shrug*
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Old 01-15-22, 01:58 PM
  #119  
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The LBS here that is a Trek dealer I think has been busy at least was in 2021 with repairs. They wanted me to be a mechanic and it was nice of them but in my retirement I did not want to go back to working 3 days a week and at least one on the weekend. The reason they were really interested in me was not because I am some super bike mechanic ( but I can get it done) but, that I could build and true wheels. They were desperately needing someone to do wheels. They did not even ask see one of my own wheels but when I mention spoke tensions and making sure wheels were safe and sable I think that made the case. I am not sure now for 2022 what we will see at this shop but for me sadly I like the place but they just don't have much reason for me to go in the store. They don't sell too many tire variations, or have many replacement parts as we know. In fact the best advocate for replacement parts it yourself.

This works for me but I should mention one of my riding friends is an orthopedic surgeon. The best thing about riding with him is that he happens to be a very strong rider but if you crash he happens to be the absolute best person in the group. However like he says I don't really do anything to my bike other than maybe generally make sure it is rideable with lube and possibly washing the bike. If he needs any work the LBS gets his bike in a hurry. For this guy he has way too much business working as an orthopedic surgeon and I am glad he does that in fact. I am not sure what he gets an hour but pretty sure it is more than being a mechanic. I have another riding friend who is a LBS owner and rides himself and his problem is he does not have time to ride as much with the shop and I know he is not exactly rolling in money! If I really like to ride might be best to sell the LBS and find another gig and ride.
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Old 01-15-22, 02:31 PM
  #120  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001 View Post
Omicron is peaking and starting to drop just like it did in South Africa. We will not see the lock downs or closures we saw in the past. People are starting to remember they generally don't like bikes.
We are past Christmas and New Years which is good for COVID, but bad for retail.

But, I think it is premature to declare a significant drop in cases. Perhaps a few local areas, but not nationwide.

So far mortality hasn't followed the Omicron surge, but hospitals are filling up, and if the trend continues, the government may be forced to respond, even in a lockdown weary country.

And, of course, there is still risk to the international trade and shipping infrastructure.

What happened to all the people who bought a 10 year supply of toilet paper back in 2020? There may be a bubble simply because some people have stocked up on the supplies they'll need, perhaps even over stocked if their cycling changes, and just don't need to buy more. We'll likely see NOS 2020 and 2021 parts showing up on E-Bay in a few years.

I had to groan when I would read about people choosing to order 2 or 3 bikes, with the intention to keep one and return the others. It could lead to shops filling with obscure inventory.

On the other hand, there have been a number of bike shops that have closed due to either retiring owners, or shops struggling with inventory. That may well be a benefit to the shops that survived.

I wouldn't be surprised if there is another hectic year as backorders are delivered, inventories bounce back, and people who bought used components come back into the market.
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Old 01-15-22, 02:46 PM
  #121  
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What evidence is there of a bubble?

The parts were not being made and therefore, they are not en route. I don't see the shortages of parts easing anytime soon. I have parts ordered 7 months ago and the estimate keeps getting pushed.
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Old 01-15-22, 03:02 PM
  #122  
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Maybe the chip shortage is impacting bicycle and parts manufacturers, too.

Covid is far from over.
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Old 01-15-22, 03:19 PM
  #123  
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Originally Posted by Fredo76 View Post
Maybe the chip shortage is impacting bicycle and parts manufacturers, too.

Covid is far from over.
It is more than a chip shortage, and the impact is both domestic and international.

Harbor Freight has been experiencing random shortages for over a year now.
Our local building supply store has some of the oddest shortages from conduit to plywood.
My favorite frozen pizza has been out of stock for quite some time, and a couple of weeks ago, the brand was reduced to cheese pizza.
My poor cats are now dealing with their favorite cat food being out of stock.
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Old 01-15-22, 03:35 PM
  #124  
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In my industry, there are items that went on backorder in March 2020 that are still on backorder. Those items aren't coming from China, either.
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Old 01-15-22, 04:56 PM
  #125  
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Originally Posted by WhyFi View Post
Off the subject, but I saw a McSomeone or Another with a Psimet tag on the Alpe du Zwift this morning. I thought that was kind of neat.
What time were on you on the Alpe this morning? I did the 9am (central US time) tour du zwift long ride. Did not see the Psimet tag - but I did see Psimet himself take umbrage with some impending embargoed announcement on the twitters. I immediately followed him, of course.
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