Prediction: DA 7900 will be 12 speed by 2010
 

Can't see logic in running two 10sp formats, so DA 7800 will be maintained as a legacy product for a few more years while DA 7900 can be spun off into 12 speed heaven.

If I'm wrong, who will remember in 2 weeks. But if I'm right, I'll be dragging this thread up as an example of my genius.

Wouldn't it be DA 8000 by then?

It'll be an electronic CVT with a motor that peddles for you.

Your dubious assertion aside, the logic of your thinking on this latter point is the real BF Genius.

Indeed.

I am not interested in either more wheel dish or a thinner chain.

I sure hope you're wrong. 12-21's are ok by me.

Or a wider spread in the rear. I already heel my rear skewer from time to time.

Yes. I have enormous feet.

By 2010, only retrogrouches will be using 10-speeds.

There has been extensive industry insider speculation on the new D.A. groups (electronic and mechanical) and there has been nary a whisper about 11 speed. All indications is that it will remain 10 speed.

Hopefully we'll know specifics by the summer. This vaporware bicycle **** is getting pretty old.

If they could make a device that does a half step shift so you get gears between the cogs on your bike, I'd buy it.
Love to have a gearing between 11 and 12.

Or they make a hub that can take a 9 or 10 cog.

There is a practical limit to how far a wheel can be dished so, although SpongeDad may be right, something has to give. In other words, either the old (but improved) Spinergy carbon bladed wheel might be reintroduced or a frame with a tandem-style 145mm dropout spacing which will accommodate a low-dish wheel and a 12 cog cluster.

Cogs might have to get thinner and thinner so we will end up having to go to a jewelry store to buy a chain! When will it end?

I would think that a 12-speed drivetrain would offer some pretty diminishing returns. It's vaporware, so you can only speculate at the weight, but I can't imagine that it would offer substantial savings over a high-end triple chainring, which would offer you a better range of gear options.

A 135mm standard across MTB and road certainly has merit. Adding another cog or two doesn't. Between my 7400 D/A 7sp and my Campy 10sp there is zero difference in range. Ultimately I've just learned to pedal in a narrower cadence range. 20 years of progress there.

Besides, switch to D/A triple in front <gasp>, and you'll add another ten.

I am not sure there is much point in going to 12, but never bet against the future greed of companies. I think it's more likely we'll see an expansion of the electronic groups and improvements in other areas, like SRAM's new cassette.

It's 2008.

Where the hell is my jetpack?!?

There's already one out with 14 gears in the rear (internal) . . .

Yeah at which point cogs will last 30km and chains maybe half of that.

Shimano has held a patent on a 14 speed for a while. Somewhere on line there is another photo and a description. Here's one page.

This says they patented it in 2000. I saw another web page before.

http://www.campyonly.com/shorts/14speed.html

The patent drawings say 1999 that's probably when they submitted it.

This is from 1999

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/5...o14cassuo2.gif

I'd like to add an 11 and 18t cog to a 12-25. I guess I could just run a 12-23 but both 11 and 25 are nice

but filed in '96 so expires in 2016.

Mind you, I agree that 12 sp isn't worth much (unless you reeeely want that 20 gear on your 12-25).

So if Shimano has a patent on it, why don't they introduce a 14-speed drivetrain? Even though I think it's stupid, it seems like that'd be a smash and would be a great way to widen the already sizable gulf between them and Campagnolo. Is it because they're so focused on electornic DA?

Just because they patented it doesn't mean they're planning on making it (or ever). It might just be a tool to get competitors to waste time trying to come up with something equivalent or better etc. etc.

OK that's crazy. The cogs go past the hub/spoke flange :eek: