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wondering about projecting performance on 200+ mile ride

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Old 06-30-10, 12:09 PM
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wondering about projecting performance on 200+ mile ride

hi, all:
i'm signed up for a 205 mile ride in september. i've only ever done 1 ride over 100 miles before, but i do get out and ride daily during my "summer". i seem to ride around 3-4,000 miles from mid-may to fall.

anyway, i was not on a trainer at all this winter and with a rainy spring i barely got out to ride until early june. i'm still under 1,000 miles for the season, with about 650 so far in june.

i was wondering if anyone had experience in predicting performance during a long event. i will not be racing to win, but i'd like to be respectable.

for whatever it is worth, lately i've been riding ~50 miles one day, then 20 the next and repeating. i'm still in base-building mode, so i'm not killing myself or doing intervals. generally speaking, i've been coming in at about 2h20 for a 45 mile course, riding solo.

one way to guess at my time (assuming the 45 mile course is a shorter representation of the 205-miler) is to multiply my time by 205/45, but that ignores rest stops, group dynamics, and the wear-and-tear of a longer event.

on the other hand, i'm not killing myself on these early season (for me!) training rides.

does anyone have any thoughts on predicting performance during that endurance ride?

of course, i'll be spending lots more time on the bike, identifying my weaknesses, doing a bit of training (but still keeping it fun), and doing some longer rides.

for what it's worth, i did do a hilly 88-mile ride "off the couch" earlier this month (just at a slow pace) and thought to myself if i could do that without any real riding for the season, with a few months of prep i should be just fine.

thanks for any thoughts on projections, or just general encouragement, comments or criticism.

oh yeah, i've had a few saddle issues that were not present last year which are of a little concern for a longer (10+ hour?) event. any help there is welcome as well.
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Old 06-30-10, 12:20 PM
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I can tell you from experience that riding for 200 miles is nothing like riding for 100 miles, and not even on the same planet as 45 miles.

However, that said, if you have your nutrition and position nailed down for 100 miles than 200 is very doable, you just have to make sure to pace yourself. Do a 100 mile ride where at the end of the 100 miles you still feel fresh, and that will give you an idea of the pace you could do 200 at.
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Old 06-30-10, 12:21 PM
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Strengths and weaknesses take a back seat to sore butt, sore neck, sore arms, and overall fatigue. Knowing what to eat and drink to prevent Bonkville and Cramptown.

Find the best shorts with the best chamois. Find the best saddle.

Otherwise it's pretty simple: when the pedal comes up, push it down again. Repeat as necessary.
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Old 06-30-10, 01:04 PM
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If you can find someone here that can give you a firm enough answer, you can just mentally convert your predictions into truth and not even worrying about doing the event.

-Jeremy
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Old 06-30-10, 02:22 PM
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thanks for the reply, umd.

Originally Posted by umd
I can tell you from experience that riding for 200 miles is nothing like riding for 100 miles, and not even on the same planet as 45 miles.
i understand and appreciate the experience. the one ride i did this year close to 100 (and as i said above i'm just getting on the bike for the summer (after a 200-day ski season)) i still felt fine, aerobically. obviously i did not start off the season with no fitness, but i have no clue how to estimate the impact of ski mountaineering. i wind up just assuming 0 for purposes of TSB.

Originally Posted by umd
However, that said, if you have your nutrition and position nailed down for 100 miles than 200 is very doable, you just have to make sure to pace yourself. Do a 100 mile ride where at the end of the 100 miles you still feel fresh, and that will give you an idea of the pace you could do 200 at.
i understand that pacing will be more an issue than i've dealt with before, as will nutrition. i've typically not really focused on that for 3h rides.

given your experience, if we're talking about a 50-mile course can you tell me:
1) assuming your time is x minutes (and you rode hard but did not kill yourself), how much longer does it take you for 2 laps of that course? obviously it is n*x minutes, but what is n? presumably n > 2...but is it 2.1 or 2.5?
2) what is your time for 4 laps of that same course -- or, rather, what would n be in that case? presumably n > 4.

just looking for a swag.

i've seen that the benefits of drafting can be significant -- up to 20-30% (would have to look that up), so i can apply that factor separately.

i'm just thinking that if i do a ride 1/4 the distance in a certain time, clearly i'll either have to slow down for the remaining 3/4 or keep a slower, steadier pace....but i wonder just how much more than 4x that time will be. (or 80% of 4x, given that i'm comparing a solo ride to a group ride).

thanks for indulging me here.

ps umd the quar has been quite interesting for me. collected lots of data last year and am actually putting it to use for more efficient training this year. still learning, of course.

Last edited by tetonrider; 06-30-10 at 02:29 PM.
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Old 06-30-10, 02:41 PM
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IF (and that's a big IF) you can do 100 miles at a pace where you not be fatigued at the end, you could probably reasonably expect to do 90-95% of that pace for the second 100. I'm just pulling those numbers out of my ass, but that is my feeling based on my own experiences. If you go at a pace a fair bit lower than your typical pace, you can pretty much do it all day. If you were to look a power curve past a few hours it's pretty much flat. It really just comes down to comfort and holding yourself in position all day more than any aerobic issues.
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Old 06-30-10, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by EventServices
Strengths and weaknesses take a back seat to sore butt, sore neck, sore arms, and overall fatigue. Knowing what to eat and drink to prevent Bonkville and Cramptown.

Find the best shorts with the best chamois. Find the best saddle.

Otherwise it's pretty simple: when the pedal comes up, push it down again. Repeat as necessary.
point taken. my shorts have been fine in the past, as has my saddle....though this season (weird for it to begin now?) my saddle has been causing a few issues. wonder if it's just me having to break in.


Originally Posted by Tunnelrat81
If you can find someone here that can give you a firm enough answer, you can just mentally convert your predictions into truth and not even worrying about doing the event.

-Jeremy
hahah!

not looking for anything to firm, just wondering what others have seen in terms of increase in time from 50->100->150->200-mile rides. surely it's not 1x->2x->3x->4x.

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Old 06-30-10, 02:56 PM
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btw, in case I wasn't clear, you are better off going slower from the beginning rather than starting off with your normal "45 mile pace" and slowing down as you get tired. And if you aren't tired at the end, you can always pick the pace up.
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Old 06-30-10, 03:13 PM
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I would go out and ride 200 that is the only way you will truly know what to expect.
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Old 06-30-10, 04:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Avanti73
I would go out and ride 200 that is the only way you will truly know what to expect.
+1.
UMD is 100% correct, 200 is nothing like 100 and isn't even in the same country as 45 miles. I ride 50 a day commuting. I can clock off a century with no issue, but it's not the same as riding 50. Besides the comfort issues... and they will exist, there's a very definite mental one. If you've ever done a century you know the mindset that sometimes sets in at about 70-80 miles (the WTF was I thinking? one) well it'll come back with a vengeance at about mile 150.

We did a death run down the C&O canal last year on a dinner bet. 183 miles start to finish in a day. At about 140-150 even the strongest riders were massively off pace. By 170 we were back on adrenaline.

200 is all about endurance and having a solid core for that level. It's finding a pace that can be maintained hour after hour.
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Old 06-30-10, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by umd
IF (and that's a big IF) you can do 100 miles at a pace where you not be fatigued at the end, you could probably reasonably expect to do 90-95% of that pace for the second 100. I'm just pulling those numbers out of my ass, but that is my feeling based on my own experiences. If you go at a pace a fair bit lower than your typical pace, you can pretty much do it all day. If you were to look a power curve past a few hours it's pretty much flat. It really just comes down to comfort and holding yourself in position all day more than any aerobic issues.
thanks! i can't (yet) do 100 miles w/o feeling fatigued (as it would probably mean i wasn't riding hard enough, and i simply can't hold back that much), but when i rode my longest ride this season, i felt tired but also felt i could do more if i needed to. it wasn't an all-out pace.

Originally Posted by umd
btw, in case I wasn't clear, you are better off going slower from the beginning rather than starting off with your normal "45 mile pace" and slowing down as you get tired. And if you aren't tired at the end, you can always pick the pace up.
this was clear to me. i think i made a statement earlier that confused the point by implying that one either starts out with a 45-mile pace and necessarily slows down or maintains a more consistent, slower pace. i'd choose the latter. blowing up is never good.

Originally Posted by CCrew
+1.
UMD is 100% correct, 200 is nothing like 100 and isn't even in the same country as 45 miles. I ride 50 a day commuting. I can clock off a century with no issue, but it's not the same as riding 50. Besides the comfort issues... and they will exist, there's a very definite mental one. If you've ever done a century you know the mindset that sometimes sets in at about 70-80 miles (the WTF was I thinking? one) well it'll come back with a vengeance at about mile 150.

We did a death run down the C&O canal last year on a dinner bet. 183 miles start to finish in a day. At about 140-150 even the strongest riders were massively off pace. By 170 we were back on adrenaline.

200 is all about endurance and having a solid core for that level. It's finding a pace that can be maintained hour after hour.
i hear you.

that said, while the mental, positioning, and comfort challenges are certainly important, what i was hoping to do was to focus on the timing. umd later did take a SWAG at estimating a 200-mile pace vs a 100-mile pace, so clearly it is possible to make a guess. (of course, it is just a guess based on some experience, so i'm not holding him to it; his experience is more than mine, so i'm inclined to go with it and see what happens in the real event, unless someone else has another perspective, based on some experience.)

i'm sure my psyche will be challenged just as much as my body. for what it's worth, it is pretty common for me to do things like wake up at 2 am, hike/skin (through snow) up a peak in the tetons, and ski down. sometimes these adventures take 15 hours, round-trip...so i'm kind of used to mental punishment. i tend to fare better in things that require me to just keep moving (vs sprints). on that 88-mile ride, i drank 2 bottles of water and had one clif shot block. of course i would plan better for a long ride, but i'm just pointing out that i was able to get through it, which had the main benefit of helping me believe that 200 is at least achievable.

thanks for the replies.
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Old 06-30-10, 08:54 PM
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I've done 3 rides over 100 miles in June (104, 130, and 114 miles), and fitness-wise, if you can easily do 100 miles (I never ride hard on long rides), then do a few rides in the 130-150 mile range to get your body accustomed to being in the saddle for that long. I usually take in some sort of food product every 45 minutes (I alternate between GU/Clif Blocks and Clif bars each time, and drink Gatorade), and typically drink one 24 oz. water bottle every 90 minutes or so (60 minutes if it's hot out).

On the 130 miler, my body was not happy at around the 114 mile mark...my sides started hurting for whatever reason, my wrist hurt, neck, feet, knee, etc. That took 7 hours and 34 minutes (and was wicked windy out), and I was beat to hell by the end of it. The 114 mile ride I did a week later took 7 hours and 17 minutes (a lot more climbing), and I felt fine. Go figure. So yeah, get your body used to the time in the saddle if you want to almost enjoy it.

And eat/drink more.
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Old 06-30-10, 08:59 PM
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The one and only double I did took just about twice the time I needed to do a similar century length ride a bit later in the summer. So, IME, your pace can easily be within 5-10% of what you can do with similar terrain.

I will say, though, that 5-6 hours in the saddle is not at all the same as 10-12 hours in the saddle, especially if you start having issues at hour 4 or 5, as I did. Ona short ride, you can tolerate problems in the last hour or two, but not so much when you're looking at problems in the last 5 to 6 hours. That is a miserable time, and can find you hating your life pretty deeply at hour 8 or 9, especially knowing you have a couple more hours to go.

Again, just my experience, but while I would really love to do more doubles, I won't until I sort out the saddle problems.

Best of luck!
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Old 06-30-10, 09:00 PM
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From my experience with a 200+ mi ride, the hardest part of the ride won't be keeping your legs fresh. Your shoulders/arms/hands/ass (you can say ass)/feet will probably be way more sore than they ever have. Your body is simply not used to spending that much time on a bike. FWIW, I completed my double having only done two single centuries before and lots of training rides in the 40-60mi range.

Some rules of thumb which helped me:
1) eat more than you think you need to.
2) drink more than you think you need to
3) go slower than you think you need to
4) avoid going anaerobic if possible. spin, spin, spin.

Good luck! Riding for that long is an awesome accomplishment and one you should be very proud of if completed successfully.
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Old 06-30-10, 11:19 PM
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thanks much for the replies.

Originally Posted by GuitarWizard
I've done 3 rides over 100 miles in June (104, 130, and 114 miles), and fitness-wise, if you can easily do 100 miles (I never ride hard on long rides), then do a few rides in the 130-150 mile range to get your body accustomed to being in the saddle for that long. I usually take in some sort of food product every 45 minutes (I alternate between GU/Clif Blocks and Clif bars each time, and drink Gatorade), and typically drink one 24 oz. water bottle every 90 minutes or so (60 minutes if it's hot out).

On the 130 miler, my body was not happy at around the 114 mile mark...my sides started hurting for whatever reason, my wrist hurt, neck, feet, knee, etc. That took 7 hours and 34 minutes (and was wicked windy out), and I was beat to hell by the end of it. The 114 mile ride I did a week later took 7 hours and 17 minutes (a lot more climbing), and I felt fine. Go figure. So yeah, get your body used to the time in the saddle if you want to almost enjoy it.

And eat/drink more.
points taken.

while that first 88-miler wasn't "easy" for me, i did it and was fine. i figure i'd pick up some speed from riding in a group.

i did have some comfort issues, but i'm still not sure if it's the distance, the fact that i hadn't been on my bike too much (so far), or a sign that it's the wrong saddle.

Originally Posted by DScott
The one and only double I did took just about twice the time I needed to do a similar century length ride a bit later in the summer. So, IME, your pace can easily be within 5-10% of what you can do with similar terrain.

I will say, though, that 5-6 hours in the saddle is not at all the same as 10-12 hours in the saddle, especially if you start having issues at hour 4 or 5, as I did. Ona short ride, you can tolerate problems in the last hour or two, but not so much when you're looking at problems in the last 5 to 6 hours. That is a miserable time, and can find you hating your life pretty deeply at hour 8 or 9, especially knowing you have a couple more hours to go.

Again, just my experience, but while I would really love to do more doubles, I won't until I sort out the saddle problems.

Best of luck!
thanks!

Originally Posted by mike868y
From my experience with a 200+ mi ride, the hardest part of the ride won't be keeping your legs fresh. Your shoulders/arms/hands/ass (you can say ass)/feet will probably be way more sore than they ever have. Your body is simply not used to spending that much time on a bike. FWIW, I completed my double having only done two single centuries before and lots of training rides in the 40-60mi range.

Some rules of thumb which helped me:
1) eat more than you think you need to.
2) drink more than you think you need to
3) go slower than you think you need to
4) avoid going anaerobic if possible. spin, spin, spin.

Good luck! Riding for that long is an awesome accomplishment and one you should be very proud of if completed successfully.
good advice. i know we've established that 45 miles is quite a bit different than 200, but what consistently doing 45-50 is teaching me is little things, like varying the position, shaking out the arms, etc. i'll just have to be sure to get into the good habits on the shorter rides and extend them for the big ones.

thanks!
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Old 07-01-10, 03:17 AM
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Check out the Long Distance forum here as well: https://www.bikeforums.net/forumdispl...urance-Cycling ... people over there are experienced long distance cyclists, many of whom have ridden 200+ miles.

Check out the UMCA website as well for articles on riding long distances by people who have ridden long distances: https://www.ultracycling.com/

And a tip ... if you're currently riding 50 miles each weekend, next weekend ride 60 miles, if that goes well, ride 70 miles the following weekend. If that goes well, ride 80 miles the next weekend, etc. etc. etc. and thus gradually increase your distance.

Another tip ... see if there are any randonneuring events going on in your area. If you can get out for a 200K brevet, that would give you a somewhat better idea of what you're getting into. I found the jump from the 200K brevet to a 300K brevet (that was 323 km = 200 miles) quite easy. 200 miles is quite similar to 125 miles ... it just takes a bit longer.
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Old 07-01-10, 04:31 AM
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Originally Posted by tetonrider
i will not be racing to win, but i'd like to be respectable.
somehow i doubt you'll even be "racing."
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Old 07-01-10, 06:04 AM
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My best advice...spend more time in the saddle preparing to perform, less trying to predict how you will perform, and the performance will take care of itself.
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Old 07-01-10, 06:08 AM
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Maybe I can help. I just finished my fifth 300k(186 mile) ride and have learned something new each time.

First 300km:
Training=300 miles all spring(!).
Learned= 300 miles isn't enough. Eat more. Get comfortable on the bike and don't keep adjusting stuff while on the ride!
Result= 16 hours and fell asleep twice(started at 12:15am). Bonked once.

Second - fourth 300k's:
Training= 900-1600 km in spring.
Learned= It's not the miles, it's the quality of training. I need to figure out what I can eat and how much.
Result= 13:40 to 14:30 for the 3 rides. Bonked once.

Fifth 300k:
Training= 600 miles in spring on road bike, commuting 10 miles/day. Practiced with a kettlebell through winter. Trained in groups for the first time. Core trained for the first time with kettlebell.
Learned= quality training more important than miles. Core is KEY.
Result= 11:32 minutes and felt really strong for first half and pushed hard for second half.

To train with less miles and to finish over 2 hours faster was a great result for me. The kettlebells helped immensely. I didn't spin all winter and my first ride of the year was 100km and I did it faster than I'd ever done it before. That's gotta be attributed to the kettlebell practice. I'm very happy with the result.

Feeding: I've tried the stuff they feed you on the ride, homemade 40:30:30 bars and a number of other things. I've bonked and ran out of energy after eating a larger meal on the ride. This year I made baggies with enough powder to make 300 calorie bottles and just mixed them as I went. I've read that you can't digest more than 300 calories/hour and you should drink around 24 ounces of water per hour so that was my reasoning; one bottle per hour. I had no energy issues. I used The Edge, by Reflex. It's 15% protein which is important for endurance work. I recommend you try something similar beforehand. It's nice to not have to deal with food and because it's got protein I don't have cravings for tuna fish sandwiches or anything like that... actually no cravings at all.

So, do more than ride, work your core and figure out how to get 300cal/hr in consistently and you should have a great time. You've got a couple of months get work it all out so hopefully you can be well prepared.
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Old 07-01-10, 11:01 AM
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I always wonder when my 200 mile virginity will disappear. My centuries consists of half a dozen feet of climbing so by the end of the 100 miles, I think to myself...to do 200, I would have to do what I just finished...again 0.0

Of course, if the 200 miles is a one-way trip, it won't seem as bad as doing a 100-mile loop twice.
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Old 07-01-10, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by 7bmwm3gtr
I always wonder when my 200 mile virginity will disappear. My centuries consists of half a dozen feet of climbing so by the end of the 100 miles, I think to myself...to do 200, I would have to do what I just finished...again 0.0

Of course, if the 200 miles is a one-way trip, it won't seem as bad as doing a 100-mile loop twice.
Don't do 2x 100 miles loops, do a 200 mile loop. Much more fun.
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Old 07-01-10, 11:40 AM
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You need to get used to the saddle more. Replace all couches, dinner chairs, and desk chairs with bike saddles.

You can even replace your toilet seat with a saddle if you get a special super-ergo one with giant cutout.
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Old 07-01-10, 11:44 AM
  #23  
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Would I be correct in assuming this is LoToJa you are signed up for? I will be doing my first this Sept as well. I have just been trying to focus on seat time so my taint can last the 10-12 hrs I will be sitting on it.
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Old 07-01-10, 12:09 PM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by tetonrider
p
not looking for anything to firm, just wondering what others have seen in terms of increase in time from 50->100->150->200-mile rides. surely it's not 1x->2x->3x->4x.

https://connect.garmin.com/activity/33462762

Look at my HR graph there. My perceived effort was steady, if not harder towards the end, but my body wasn't cooperating. It feels harder, but you're going just a smidge slower.

Also, keep in mind that perspective is everything. If you start out on a 200m ride, you don't get to mile 70 and think "almost done". I've done 100m rides where I felt terrible, and wondered how I'd ever doubled that distance. Then, the next week I had a great double. The first 60m flies by. The middle hundred drags on, and then the last 40m you're cruising in, knowing that you'll finish, and the pressure is off.
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Old 07-01-10, 01:33 PM
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Username is tetonrider, 205 miles, September. Has to be LoToJa. I did this race twice in 1993 and 1994. Levi won in 94. I was racing doing a lot of racing and training both years, it was hard, but if I remember finished in the top 15 in the 4/5 category both times.

I highly recommend having some suger cubes, advil, tylenol in you jersey. The suger cubes were a lifesaver for me and my friend. Coke at the last feed zone.

You have all of July and August and the first week of September to get in 4+ centurys. I found solo / non drafting centurys were enough to prepare for it. Doing LoToJa solo (if you are not good at drafting) is going to be painful.

Please don't use a mountain bike
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