I set NP equal to the avg solo power over the 30 minutes that we did last time, that was 262 W and 236 W.
Pace line NP was calculated as: (w*P1^4+(1-w)*P2^4)^0.25

This is too important to be glossed over. It may make a tidy equation but it also creates flawed data.

The time between exchanges is a considerable amount of time. If we assume 5 seconds for the entire process with 30 second pulls that is 1/6th of the total time. It matters. I'm not sure what values I would use for that time but I think it needs to be factored in.

Realistically, any two man break I've ever been has one rider suffering more at least at some point in the break. I also agree with a previous post that suggested that the stronger rider take longer pulls but that both riders pull at the same speed (although they efforts are different). The stronger rider may notch it up a kph or two but successful breaks are the ones where the pace is the steadiest.

^ That's why we prefer longer pulls when training, about 2-3 mins.

+1 I have been both the weaker and the stronger (obviously at different times)

I would also ad this depends on goals when really trying to make speed the stronger one should take longer pulls as the pace can be maintained at a higher rate. If it is training, equal or even more time in the front for the weaker cyclist to gain fitness and speed. Pulls by the stronger rider should be to increase the pace and push the training partner without dropping him and make the pace honest

Well, the entire point of the excercise is to see if the difference is too big or if we could go faster in a a paceline.

I thought of that. For the change from drafting to pulling it is instantaneous. Going fom pulling to drafting if you would go to drafting power instantaneously, then you would still need a large power burst to get up to speed again. So the power required during a transition could be modeled as starting with pulling power, easing off enough to drop 1 bike length in 3 seconds, accelerating again to get back to the pulling speed of the other rider.
It makes the NP higher, I wonder how significant this is.

What my first calculations show is that you can not do much better than with constant speed, and that alo allows for longer pulls.

In this case the goal is only to have the highest Strava score possible :)

Point?...LMAO...

I've always done 3 minute pulls in this situation, or any paceline situation when rolling is inappropriate. One can also use mileposts: works out about right whatever the terrain. Hold the cadence, even if it's gusty. Shoot for the average desired power or HR. That's perhaps the biggest difference between riding solo and pulling.

Well, if it made you laugh it gives this thread already 1 use.