Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
 

I just bought my first tri bike, I am a swimmer not a biker :-) so please bare with me. When choosing and buying my first bike many factors came into consideration, most of them related to fitting and having a reliable bike shop available in the area, of course price was also a determinant factor.

I chose Cervelo, the P2 appeared to fit the bill, however I knew Cervelo had two frames on 2014, my concern was to get the newer frame, and I was happy to get the one with the Dura Ace shifter, now I realized that Cervelo also had a 11 speed model with the new frame and I ended up getting the one with the Shimano 10 Speed components.

My question is how fast the 10 speed will become obsolete in terms of availability of higher end parts ( for 105 and up)?
Are the newer aero wheels backward compatible? Is there any way I could get a pair that will work with a 11 speed drive train (assuming I will upgrade to 11 speed in the next 5 years). I am just a little annoyed, I thought that I would be future proof buying a Cervelo and I neglected the 11 speed upgrade, I thought they were just running parallel, I did not know 11 was actually replacing 10.

Thanks!
Edward

I don't know how someone could answer this correctly.

I highly doubt that 10 speed will become obsolete any time soon. Maybe in a few years you may have to use eBay for parts, much as current 9 speed users are likely doing now.

You can run a 10 speed cassette on 11 speed wheels, you need a spacer which likely comes with the wheels or can be had quite cheaply, so fear not.

I would expect 10 speed road to stay for a very long time. 8 speed still exists in Shimano's named road groups, and that appeared a long time ago. They can't add too many more speeds to the rear end of the bike before needing a major redesign of the standard road bicycle's rear triangle and rear hub, which is not going to be as easy a transition as previous group upgrades have gone.

Now mountain drivetrains are another thing. With 142 thru axle, and the popularity of 1x, I bet we see more gears on mountain cassettes soon. 8 speed may only stay on walmart bikes.

Edit: 9 speed users only have to use Ebay if they're looking for Ultegra or DA grade stuff- Shimano still makes plenty of 9 speed hardware. Heck, Shimano may still make-or still possess a quantity of- light 9 speed cassettes (they still have some older stuff that isn't posted on their website), but I doubt many stores would keep such a thing on the shelf.

parts are still readily available if i were to choose to have a 7-speed. i could even make up a nice 5-speed if i wanted to.

Not only does Shimano support 9 speed and 8 speed, apparently they re-released 7 speed road brake/shifter units. I didn't think that would happen, but it did. As for 10 speed, when Shimano released 10 speed many years ago and subsequently stopped supplying Ultegra and DA level 9 speed components, SRAM was not a major player with road bike components. Now we all know they are. If Shimano vacates support of 10 speed, will SRAM follow suit or seize an opportunity to fill a gap left by Shimano? Will Shimano not create that gap? My point is, it's a different dynamic today.
According to my LBS, they expect Shimano to continue to supply Ultegra level 10 speed chains and cassettes. I don't know if they have information or just guessing based on how difficult it is to obtain these items today.

Yeah, that's nothing to worry about at all. Zero.

My fifteen year old Campy Record 10 speed drive train is still running flawlessly...don't worry about it.
If you are concerned buy a couple of chains and cassettes...future proof for just a few bucks.

As said earlier. I could put together a nice 5 speed and be ok with it.

My crystal ball says 3 years 'til eBay only for DA cassettes. 4 years for Red domes. 2 years for Record.

As for brifters, non-eBay DA is already tough to find, so you better get 'em quick if you want 'em. Ultegra 10s might not last long, either. Probably easy for another 2 years or so, though.

The consumables or parts that will wear on a regular basis are chains and cassettes. You shouldn't have any problem finding 10 speed versions of those for quite a while.

+1. no problems getting 7 speed parts now, Shimano even has new 7 speed brifters. I wouldn't worry about 10 speed going away any time soon

You have to go eBay for 105 level and up 7-speed stuff, though. That's what the OP is wondering about.

http://www.amazon.com/Shimano-HG50-7.../dp/B00393913M ???

Cassettes and chains will be available for a very very very long time at the highest quality if 9 speed is any indication. High end shifters and derailleurs are already gone for the most part. You'll find lower quality stuff for awhile yet.

so will 10 speed consumables collapse in price?

Since you are buying a P2 with Dura Ace, I assume you will either stay serious with tris and cycling or you will give it up. In either case, it won't matter. You will either get rid of the bike or switch to whatever is the latest long before worrying about getting parts for the obsolete group.

Shimano 105 5700 10 Speed Road Cassette | Chain Reaction Cycles Shimano 105 5800 11 Speed Road Cassette | Chain Reaction Cycles
this isn't collapsed to you? The entire bike parts market is collapsed. Those prices are just a few (like literally maybe $5) dollars above what a LBS in the US pays for the part.

I happen to be a psychic and 10-spd. will become obsolete on June 12, 2017.

I have one bike with a 7 speed and another with an 8 speed. Never have trouble getting parts.

Still not a problem finding stuff but I was specifically refering to cassette/freewheels and chains that need regular replacement. Those can be found new with no problem

I just hope they can stick to the 11 speed and use that as a standard, instead of dicking around with their marketing schemes to gradually go up in speeds over the years and call them upgrades. I want to be able to have my older bikes be completely interchangeable with my newer bikes.

Probably not gonna happen. Boutique, one-off, 13-speed has already been done.

They will go on clearance when they become discontinued, then after a few years the NOS parts will be on ebay for outrageous prices. For instance, an NOS Shimano 600 7 speed cassette is $199.99 at the ebay NOS Bicycle Shop. A Dura Ace 8 speed is $300. Best thing to do is buy up a bunch of 10 speed parts when they go on clearance and just hoard them. That's what I'm going to do.

don't bite on the marketing scam, ride the P2 till the wheels fall off or if it starts to hold you back (which isn't likely unless you go pro)

It's tough to gauge when the best price is gonna happen. Shortly after the best price happens the good stuff disappears.

I scored a couple of 8-speed XT cassettes on closeout in 1999 for $25. Wish I would have gotten more. Like 10 or so. The currently available 8-speed cassettes are pretty meh comparatively.