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Old 09-28-19, 02:03 AM
  #76  
Tragically Ignorant
 
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Originally Posted by blacknbluebikes
Look, I can't speak for BBB, but as someone in software development, it's not a big challenge to write software that will track every bike transaction on eBay. Why would you think BBB doesn't do that? Cross that with putting a 'bot on CL, check prices on used inventory posted on LBS sites... this ain't quantum computing. Harder questions are: does source make their pricing methodology transparent? If prices are questioned, can they be qualified and possibly updated? How often does a given model trade and price? Else, you're likely just using a standardized depreciation rate, and a seven-year-old anything is technically toast. Except a Babe Ruth baseball card, right?

I used to work with pricing in the bond market, same kind of question when you're looking at "over the counter" transactions. "My price is better, yours is wrong." Yeah, heard that a bazillion times. At the point of sale, it's two parties negotiating and we'll see who wants the transaction more...

But spare us the venom. That price is worth what you paid to get it. On the internet. yeah. But, gotta start somewhere...
I think the venom is somewhat justified by the misleading use of the Blue Book name which people associate with an actual methodology for measuring prevailing prices. I see no evidence that BBB is using any surveying technique, and "why would you think bbb doesn't do that" is just burden of proof shifting. The faq on bbb actually describes two entirely different methods, an analysis of "millions" of private party sales with absolutely no plausible method described for building such a database, and "Our algorithm considers a bike's age, brand, type, frame material, suspension, condition, components, wheel size, modifications, manufacturer and retailer discounting and the depreciation that occurs as soon as a new bike is purchased.". It's clear that it's really the second one that they're using, the first one is just implausible.

One really obvious difference is that private car title transfers are registered officially, so there's a real way to estimate the numbers of sales, and there's no such traceability involved in the vast majority of private bike sales.
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