Oslo: The Journey to Car Free
#401
Prefers Cicero
China was once the LCF paradise you so often say is ideal. China today is the number one consumer of cars. They reached that position 5 years faster than anyone predicted. They now have started several auto plants and have started a plan to produce after market factories to support those car sales. The two sites I posted are simple business projections but even politically China doesn't have to curb any building at all till after 2030. So 40 million cars in a nation with 5 times as many people as the US is reasonable. They went from practically no personal cars to 20 million cars in record time. And now in the second link I posted they are making it very hard to ride on a train with a bicycle. None of that is addressed in your response that I can see. Except the idea they are working on ride sharing.
It's really unfortunate they are restricting bikes on trains. I assume it is because ridership is so high they just don't have room, but I hope they reconsider, and, for example add baggage cars with bike racks like we have on some VIA trains in Canada. The Bike Train | VIA Rail
Last edited by cooker; 07-01-17 at 02:15 PM.
#402
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Just as a point I think you must have missed that we are talking about China and India at the moment? China was once the LCF paradise you so often say is ideal. China today is the number one consumer of cars. They reached that position 5 years faster than anyone predicted. They now have started several auto plants and have started a plan to produce after market factories to support those car sales. The two sites I posted are simple business projections but even politically China doesn't have to curb any building at all till after 2030. So 40 million cars in a nation with 5 times as many people as the US is reasonable. They went from practically no personal cars to 20 million cars in record time. And now in the second link I posted they are making it very hard to ride on a train with a bicycle. None of that is addressed in your response that I can see. Except the idea they are working on ride sharing.
Opium has a harm. Opium is a poison, undermining our good customs and morality. Its use is prohibited by law. Now the commoner, Yang, dares to bring it into the Forbidden City. Indeed, he flouts the law! However, recently the purchasers, eaters, and consumers of opium have become numerous. Deceitful merchants buy and sell it to gain profit.
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My limited understanding of history also recalls that China had fast market-growth in opium, whose addictive potential could also be exploited for profiteering. I found the following quote in Wikipedia in reference to opium, but you could probably substitute driving/cars and achieve the same validity:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_opium_in_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_opium_in_China
Do you believe business Week and Forbes are mistaken on their predictions?
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It wasn't exactly a "paradise". It was a poor country where most people couldn't afford a car. Now that they can afford them they are buying them, but also struggling with the consequences and trying to set limits, at least in the largest cities, long before they get anywhere near US ownership levels.
It's really unfortunate they are restricting bikes on trains. I assume it is because ridership is so high they just don't have room, but I hope they reconsider, and, for example add baggage cars with bike racks like we have on some VIA trains in Canada. The Bike Train | VIA Rail
It's really unfortunate they are restricting bikes on trains. I assume it is because ridership is so high they just don't have room, but I hope they reconsider, and, for example add baggage cars with bike racks like we have on some VIA trains in Canada. The Bike Train | VIA Rail
#405
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Your point? Like the west's addiction at the time caused opium usage and the people were waiting for it? Does either of you last two post address the issue of which direction India and China are moving in transportation. Or is it your assertion the Chinese are not intelligent enough to tell the difference between an addiction and mode of transportation?
Do you believe business Week and Forbes are mistaken on their predictions?
Do you believe business Week and Forbes are mistaken on their predictions?
People in the US or any other driving-dependent area are not addicted to driving because they lack the intelligence to choose otherwise. They/we get saddled with time-demands that make it too lucrative to forego driving. Certainly one can choose to LCF by sacrificing certain opportunities, but that is a matter of willpower, not intelligence.
An intelligent person can simultaneously see how life could be better with less driving, while also being rational enough to choose to make more money when doing so requires driving. There are just a few of us far-sighted enough to see how the sacrifices that come with LCF are worth it in the long run for the greater good of sustainability, personal health and budgetary decompression, etc. but that doesn't mean we're more intelligent than someone who drives to a job where they do rocket science or otherwise apply their high IQ for high pay.
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I am not making a judgment call on the Chinese people I am simply pointing out the reality of becoming a First World economy in relationship to private transportation. The day might come when they rethink their decision but I don't believe they will reverse course till they feel they have reached parity with the US like Japan and South Korea have.
#407
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Whether such "sacrificing" is much or little or for the right or wrong reasons or "worth it in the long run" is wholly subjective.
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When you debate things like this in threads, it threatens to get the thread moved to P&R. That said, the sacrifices of LCF are not subjectively worth it. They are real contributions to conserving fuel, reducing CO2 emissions, reducing demand for paved lanes and parking spots, etc.
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When you debate things like this in threads, it threatens to get the thread moved to P&R. That said, the sacrifices of LCF are not subjectively worth it. They are real contributions to conserving fuel, reducing CO2 emissions, reducing demand for paved lanes and parking spots, etc.
The subjective part comes when someone outside of the people making the decision make the determination as to what contribution is or isn't worth it. If the things can be accomplished and people can have the choice they want it is a win win. It becomes debatable when someone that has never experienced poverty and hardness of life that someone in a developing world has tries to tell them what sacrifices are worth it when that same someone already enjoys the options the developing people are striving for. If you get the point. I have no right to tell people in Oslo how to build their city and they have no influence on how we build ours. That is how it is supposed to be I think. My opinion anyway.
#410
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When you debate things like this in threads, it threatens to get the thread moved to P&R. That said, the sacrifices of LCF are not subjectively worth it. They are real contributions to conserving fuel, reducing CO2 emissions, reducing demand for paved lanes and parking spots, etc.
#411
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Is it your selective vision thing that causes you to reword/paraphrase other posters' statements into something that fits your agenda of cheerleading for the dreamers who post about various imaginary alternate realities that only they and you can see?
You know damn well that what I posted about naive/uninformed believers of hyperbolic rhetoric/promises about the imminent arrival self driving cars is frequently discussed elsewhere on BF (several threads on it are active on A&S this week) with some of the visionary/dreamy comments made by at least one true believer who also frequently posts about his faith in technological wizardry on LCF including this very thread.
#412
Prefers Cicero
Who claimed that the pipe dreamers of BF and elsewhere post about their wishful thinking visions only on this thread?
Is it your selective vision thing that causes you to reword/paraphrase other posters' statements into something that fits your agenda of cheerleading for the dreamers who post about various imaginary alternate realities that only they and you can see?
You know damn well that what I posted about naive/uninformed believers of hyperbolic rhetoric/promises about the imminent arrival self driving cars is frequently discussed elsewhere on BF (several threads on it are active on A&S this week) with some of the visionary/dreamy comments made by at least one true believer who also frequently posts about his faith in technological wizardry on LCF including this very thread.
Is it your selective vision thing that causes you to reword/paraphrase other posters' statements into something that fits your agenda of cheerleading for the dreamers who post about various imaginary alternate realities that only they and you can see?
You know damn well that what I posted about naive/uninformed believers of hyperbolic rhetoric/promises about the imminent arrival self driving cars is frequently discussed elsewhere on BF (several threads on it are active on A&S this week) with some of the visionary/dreamy comments made by at least one true believer who also frequently posts about his faith in technological wizardry on LCF including this very thread.
Last edited by cooker; 07-02-17 at 07:28 AM.
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If the things can be accomplished and people can have the choice they want it is a win win.
It becomes debatable when someone that has never experienced poverty and hardness of life that someone in a developing world has tries to tell them what sacrifices are worth it when that same someone already enjoys the options the developing people are striving for. If you get the point. I have no right to tell people in Oslo how to build their city and they have no influence on how we build ours. That is how it is supposed to be I think. My opinion anyway.
#414
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My limited understanding of history also recalls that China had fast market-growth in opium, whose addictive potential could also be exploited for profiteering. I found the following quote in Wikipedia in reference to opium, but you could probably substitute driving/cars and achieve the same validity:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_opium_in_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_opium_in_China
What the heck does opium addiction in China have to do with transportational issues in North America ??
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The question was about why driving was gaining so much market-share in China. I say it is a form of colonial exploitation similar to what was going on with the opium boom in China. The US has been used as a lucrative consumer market by global investors for a long time, and now there are efforts underway to expand consumer markets in China for the same reason. Getting people addicted to expensive products is very lucrative and good for global GDP growth, if not for the people being used to pay for that growth by maintaining their addictions.
#416
Senior Member
...
I don't think there's any win-win possible in terms of certain industrial practices like ubiquitous driving and liberal energy use harming the environment/climate/etc. I've explained why numerous times in various threads, and I think people keep debating it just because they don't want to make certain sacrifices regardless of the harm they cause. Where this leaves us is that some people are trying to diminish the significance of sacrifices such as LCF by some, while others are struggling with what to do in the event that many, even a majority of people, just never come around to seeing how the cause and effect of things like driving and pavement add up to environmental degeneracy. Where is win-win possible in this?
...
I don't think there's any win-win possible in terms of certain industrial practices like ubiquitous driving and liberal energy use harming the environment/climate/etc. I've explained why numerous times in various threads, and I think people keep debating it just because they don't want to make certain sacrifices regardless of the harm they cause. Where this leaves us is that some people are trying to diminish the significance of sacrifices such as LCF by some, while others are struggling with what to do in the event that many, even a majority of people, just never come around to seeing how the cause and effect of things like driving and pavement add up to environmental degeneracy. Where is win-win possible in this?
...
#417
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The Commuting sub-forum helps people. The above although what you expect on the LCF sub-forum is nothing but the sort of rank eco/enviro-whacko, self-aggrandizing, self-congratulatory demagoguery we might expect to see in Al Gore's upcoming sequel to, An Inconvenient Truth-- Gore's impending crockumentary titled, An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth To Power-- nothing to do with bicycling and the love of cycling. Simple 'Foo' faire.
https://www.wired.com/story/photo-of-the-week-a-dizzying-view-of-a-bicycle-graveyard-in-china/
Last edited by Mobile 155; 07-02-17 at 06:46 PM.
#418
Prefers Cicero
For me the problem has almost always been the difference between what the people are doing and what the people that didn't follow the others believe they should be doing. China has groups trying to establish a return to cycling and feel it should be easy. What is hardly ever talked about is the want or even attitude if the people the few are trying to win back. They have even started several ride share programs for bikes. Look at some of the problems the old kingdom of the bike are now having.
https://www.wired.com/story/photo-of...yard-in-china/
https://www.wired.com/story/photo-of...yard-in-china/
Once they get the wrinkles worked out and the players winnowed down, it should end up being a lucrative business and they expect to export the model to places like "Panama, Malaysia and Italy".
#419
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That's a great story - there turns out to be a huge demand for bike share in the largest Chinese cities, but so many unregulated private entrepreneurs are getting in on it and flooding the market with "dockless" bikes for hire, that can be dropped off anywhere, it's clogging the city with parked or abandoned or dumped bikes that the police end up confiscating by the thousands.
Once they get the wrinkles worked out and the players winnowed down, it should end up being a lucrative business and they expect to export the model to places like "Panama, Malaysia and Italy".
Once they get the wrinkles worked out and the players winnowed down, it should end up being a lucrative business and they expect to export the model to places like "Panama, Malaysia and Italy".
It seems if part of the problem is the populace is more interested in bikes because they can be used by opening an App on their phone. I read the average Chinese consumer uses their phone twice as often as someone from the US might to charge things and bike share is one of those things. They are however looking at size restrictions, too big or two small and have already started working on laws restricting kids under 11 from using a bike in town.
And today I ran across an article saying they are working on banning E-bikes because they are too dangerous. Looks like the Government will be pushing car production for the next few years to me. But as I said before, we shall see. Their country their problem. https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshe.../#7a2c139b141b
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An obstacle has been those raised in the beehives of Old World thinking who came to a place like California to get away from the high-rise, elevator, rat race, fast-talking lifestyle and then corrupted the politics by stealing highway improvement monies and allowing dense building right up to the 'shores' of our highways, turning open spaces into the beehives that caused them to flee the big cities in the first place. The Jetsons is a good example of looking to a future that still allows for the independence of personal transportation. It's a fanciful notion given the technology, which is why we have and use automobiles but for many, personal transportation it's still a better lifestyle than looking down on the streets of a city from the 40th floor and see nothing but ribbons of yellow...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/r...amsterdam.html
#421
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Actually that creates an interesting quandary. If people get a virtual office and don't need to drive to work, then they can live anywhere, and they won't need a car to drive to work, but they still want to go other places like the store or hockey rink or whatever. So will more people move out to the woods, but with less driving, or will a lot of people still want to live in cities to be close to other stuff, even if they don't need to be there for work?
In a perfect world, I could see more such 'pods' that would each be relatively complete in terms of supplying the needs of the citizens. And ideally, they would have more walkable town centers. And could be connected by mass transit so that activities and businesses that depend on a larger critical mass of population (pro sports, for example) could draw from a number of such 'pods.'
But have pondered this over the course of a few long bike rides, I realize that's pure fantasy. Looking at how these 'satellite cities' have been developed in the real world, there is no central planning, and no real attempt to make things more livable by finding a way around the "acres of free parking" that tend to dominate such areas.
When I wrote my original post, I was thinking that the current model of city is quite old and is ready to be replaced with a new and better model tailored for a changing world. But on reflection, I think if that happens it won't be for another century or so.
#422
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#424
Prefers Cicero
But have pondered this over the course of a few long bike rides, I realize that's pure fantasy. Looking at how these 'satellite cities' have been developed in the real world, there is no central planning, and no real attempt to make things more livable by finding a way around the "acres of free parking" that tend to dominate such areas.
When I wrote my original post, I was thinking that the current model of city is quite old and is ready to be replaced with a new and better model tailored for a changing world. But on reflection, I think if that happens it won't be for another century or so.
When I wrote my original post, I was thinking that the current model of city is quite old and is ready to be replaced with a new and better model tailored for a changing world. But on reflection, I think if that happens it won't be for another century or so.
see eg. Millennials Continue Urbanization Of America, Leaving Small Towns : NPR
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That "central planning" is happening to at least some degree, both actually centrally planned, and through unplanned mechanisms. More young people are giving up driving and looking to live more centrally, and communities and regional and federal governments are investing more in public transit and other urban improvements. As discussed in this thread, cities are growing both up and out, so not just out, as they did in the latter 20th century
see eg. Millennials Continue Urbanization Of America, Leaving Small Towns : NPR
see eg. Millennials Continue Urbanization Of America, Leaving Small Towns : NPR