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The bubble is upon us?

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Old 01-22-22, 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted by fishboat
Nope. A drop of 8% in the SP500 does not a correction make. You taught economics..you're better than this.
Economics is not about the stock market, fyi. When it comes to such things, I know barely more than any other reasonably well-informed layman. So, no, I'm not really 'better than this.'

But I do wonder if this is the start of a real correction, or just a blip.

Back on-topic: at my fave shop, I am seeing far more bikes than a year ago, and parts availability seems to be loosening up, too. But that's just my anecdotal observation.
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Old 01-22-22, 05:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Russ Roth
IIf trek, specialized, or whoever opened a shop and every shop within the region dropped the brand they would lose market share and have to start backing up.
Those major brands might shift where they offload there products by using "sporting goods stores" like Academy Sports + Outdoors, Big 5, Dunham's, Hibbett, Modell’s, Recreational Equipment Inc. Contracted assemblers are nothing new, & if the big brand name OE's cared about their reputation, they'd only use there own technicians to do assembling & repairs & not subcontractors.
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Old 01-22-22, 05:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Koyote
Back on-topic: at my fave shop, I am seeing far more bikes than a year ago, and parts availability seems to be loosening up, too. But that's just my anecdotal observation.
Are those parts you're seeing of things that are in demand or are they throw-away things the kid's parents buy like in the checkout lane or dead weight parts taking up space on the shelf?
When I walked in to a few bicycle shops recently, I noticed the aforementioned for inventory or the shelves were still bare, even some of those empty racks had outdated price listings.
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Old 01-22-22, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Koyote
Economics is not about the stock market, fyi.
Well aware of that.
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Old 01-22-22, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by fishboat
Well aware of that.
Post #150 suggests that you've only been aware of it since post #151.
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Old 01-22-22, 07:59 PM
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Originally Posted by fishboat
As messed up as the entire supply chain is..it may well get worse. I've been working on personal finances for the last week. Covid-induced issues aside, the markets have been on a rather heady expansion for 12 years. Expansions typically don't last that long(in fact I think the current one is the longest in history) and we're either overdue or long overdue for a correction.
The U.S. stock market has had several corrections in the last 12 years (Nov '15, Jan '18, Sep '18, Feb '20)
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Old 01-24-22, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Koyote
But I do wonder if this is the start of a real correction, or just a blip.
Originally Posted by fishboat
Nope. A drop of 8% in the SP500 does not a correction make. You taught economics..you're better than this.
When Fortune and Forbes are both calling it a "correction," I think that's what the rest of us can call it, too.
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Old 01-24-22, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Koyote
When Fortune and Forbes are both calling it a "correction," I think that's what the rest of us can call it, too.
I prefer to call it a rutabaga.
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Old 01-25-22, 05:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001
For those that don't already know - yes I am in the industry. Most of us have been talking about the impending bubble of inventory that is coming. You see when the shortages first hit just about everyone everywhere started placing panic buys. Some because they thought the demand would last (or the inventory would actually show before it dissolved) and some because they didn't know what else to do.

In the meantime the industry has successfully run all of the streams out of parts. if there was ever a time to eliminate margin loss points or grey market goods - this is it.

All of us knew though that at some point the tides would shift. The product would eventually start coming through and be met with cancelled orders from customers or lower than anticipated demand. At the OE side there would be smaller bike brands all over that placed large orders just to get on Shimano's OE build list who now know they aren't going to produce that many bikes and have piles of components they now need to get rid of (grey market).

I have emails and discussions about this going back to 2020. We all knew it was coming but many thought they would have another year or two of the current state. it looks like maybe the time has already come. Demand is markedly down at every dealer I have been talking to. The same ones who were a 3 week wait last year this time are saying they are completely dead.

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opin...g#.Ydx8_mjMKUk

This can go in many directions.
1. Much to most of your (you guys used generally) delight you may now be able to find product all over again and at the same wholesale or below wholesale pricing you came to love (semi likely)
2. Most of these OEM's will use this as an opportunity to complete their efforts to go consumer direct (SRAM has taken huge strides in that regard, same with Giant, Trek, and Specialized to name a few) in order to maintain pricing integrity and prevent margin erosion.

Honestly I am starting to feel like the OE's will dump product on dealers if they end up having overages. Shimano product will absolutely make it into the aftermarket as OE and it's value will be decimated in short order. Most companies will institute some form of consumer direct sales. Those that already have consumer direct will step further (Trek buying up every store they can that makes sense for example). All of these things will absolutely spell disaster for what remaining independent dealers there are left (you guys refer to them as LBSs). Couple this with the theft rings that have been going around to every metropolitan area and hitting shops shops with smash and grab and destroying them financially - it's a bleak outlook for your local.

I get that most here don't care 1 bit about the industry or who is involved in it ("I want my bike parts now and I want them at prices that make me question whether they are legit parts" and all) but I wonder how many of you realize this ultimately screws over the customer? Trek isn't making deals or giving away product. SRAM has cut all factory and "pro" deals. Guys that helped build the company can't even get parts let alone a discount on them. Shimano is actually getting retail prices and higher for the first time since the internet was invented. None of these guys will want to walk away from that margin...
Interesting.
Maybe I read it wrong but it appears that you are implying that the biggest negative effect is that big brands such as Trek will not discount their bikes?
If so, how is that a big deal?
What was the average discount and how often does the average cyclist buy a new bike?
Doesn’t seem like it would add up to that much.
In the past six years I have purchased three new road bikes and it wouldn’t have affected any of my purchases.
And one of those bikes was a Litespeed T6 that I got at a huge discount because it was a two year old discontinued leftover.
If that deal wasn’t available at the time I would have simply just purchased something else.

Last edited by downhillmaster; 01-25-22 at 05:50 AM.
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Old 01-25-22, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted by downhillmaster
Interesting.
Maybe I read it wrong but it appears that you are implying that the biggest negative effect is that big brands such as Trek will not discount their bikes?
If so, how is that a big deal?
What was the average discount and how often does the average cyclist buy a new bike?
Doesn’t seem like it would add up to that much.
In the past six years I have purchased three new road bikes and it wouldn’t have affected any of my purchases.
And one of those bikes was a Litespeed T6 that I got at a huge discount because it was a two year old discontinued leftover.
If that deal wasn’t available at the time I would have simply just purchased something else.
You read it wrong. He is citing evidence of a shortage & the brands unwillingness to walk away from brand value when/if the pendulum swings the other way.

I'd like for 10% off wholesale price to return for employees. I'd love "factory blemish" frames to return. I'd love a lot of things derivative of a stable supply chain balanced with stable demand to happen. It's not going to happen any time soon. There just isn't product to available to discount. When there is product to discount, the product production & shipping cost will be so high that that there will be no room in the price to discount even if we/they wanted to. Furthermore there will be so much product bought at inflated prices We LBS's will be stuck holding the bag when consumer demand stagnates/drops to nothing. There'll be no option but to sell/consolidate to a big brand. It's a legitimate concern. Our livelihoods are at stake.

People who make the bike industry frequent this forum. You've done this before...failed to make the connection between consumer perspective & industry professional. Your Litespeed wasn't discounted to "make a sale;" Your Litespeed was discounted because they needed that 8 square feet of real estate space for something else that would sell. What does an LBS do if that is the case for every product?
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Old 01-25-22, 06:05 PM
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This is well written.

“There shouldn’t be a de facto floating cartel to control this industry. And hopefully, as we resurrect antitrust law, there won’t be.”

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/t...bCckFfjmlkpWaQ

I'm starting to get, "no comment" from my insider sources I have relied on in the past. The Pon Cannondale move is one that is greatly underappreciated for what it really is. Cannondale spent a ton of time creating an assembly facility stateside. They possess the ability to box up frames and get them here inexpensively and rapidly. The assembly plant is doing what Trek is also doing by creating a consumer direct packaging/model - copying Canyon (hopefully everyone saw the Trek packaging patent that someone awarded them). With Pon's acquisition of Cervelo the rumor is that they are going in guns blazing on consumer direct future models using that assembly facility for cannondale and cervelo.

The point of this thread was simply to put this stuff out here. I knew some would be interested and there might be some good conversation. I knew the vast majority wouldn't really understand it outside of a "I can still get my parts now on Amazon and I am paying about the same price. I don't know what you losers are talking about" framework but for those that do: hopefully you can start to see that the consumer bicycle industry in the US as we have known it is undergoing a fundamental change and restructuring.

The service fees, license, and certifications he mentions service shops will end up having to pay in order to simply exist and work on what's out there was something I guess I knew deep down but hadn't really fully considered. We're f'd. Also explains a lot of what I have been watching the component guys do.

If you haven't listened to my podcast (i don't honestly expect that many have) about PowerTap I believe I mention that some of the importance of that acquisition to SRAM was most likely some of the sensors and tech that most likely had use the in ebike market. Their acquisition of the computer company last week also plays into that. They have to respond to what Shimano has been doing with their ebike and steps programs.

Fun stuff. The shop owners forums I am in is full of guys going, "who cares! I strip piles of old bikes for parts all the time and I can fix those bikes forever...and someone is always going to need something fixed."

This all gets back to the same question I constantly ask and have been asking for over 16 years - "Do you need or want a bike shop to exist? If so what is it about the shop that really represents value to you?" For most here that's an easy question. I have found the general cycling enthusiast population generally does want shops to be around but really can't articulate why.
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Old 01-26-22, 02:20 AM
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Originally Posted by base2
You read it wrong. He is citing evidence of a shortage & the brands unwillingness to walk away from brand value when/if the pendulum swings the other way.

I'd like for 10% off wholesale price to return for employees. I'd love "factory blemish" frames to return. I'd love a lot of things derivative of a stable supply chain balanced with stable demand to happen. It's not going to happen any time soon. There just isn't product to available to discount. When there is product to discount, the product production & shipping cost will be so high that that there will be no room in the price to discount even if we/they wanted to. Furthermore there will be so much product bought at inflated prices We LBS's will be stuck holding the bag when consumer demand stagnates/drops to nothing. There'll be no option but to sell/consolidate to a big brand. It's a legitimate concern. Our livelihoods are at stake.

People who make the bike industry frequent this forum. You've done this before...failed to make the connection between consumer perspective & industry professional. Your Litespeed wasn't discounted to "make a sale;" Your Litespeed was discounted because they needed that 8 square feet of real estate space for something else that would sell. What does an LBS do if that is the case for every product?
You are so off base.
I know why the bike was discounted and I know why I bought it. My Litespeed was a two year old discontinued model that came direct from the factory btw.
Do you think any retail business model would survive though if the factory/suppliers themselves were regularly sitting on large amounts of two year old, undesirable product? My bike/purchase was in no way indicative of the overall market then or now. That is why I pointed it out but you of course missed that so I am sure the irony of your reply is also lost on you

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Old 01-26-22, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted by downhillmaster
You are so off base.
I know why the bike was discounted and I know why I bought it. My Litespeed was a two year old discontinued model that came direct from the factory btw.
Do you think any retail business model would survive though if the factory/suppliers themselves were regularly sitting on large amounts of two year old, undesirable product? My bike/purchase was in no way indicative of the overall market then or now. That is why I pointed it out but you of course missed that so I am sure the irony of your reply is also lost on you
Up to now, many factories & bike makers had 2 year old product. As day to day, month to month buffer in demand variability accumulated & compounded in various warehouses in various markets for various model as bean counters made their best guess of how many of X model in X size would be ordered in X place. It doesn't make sense for a satellite distribution warehouse to to ship one-off, year-end leftovers back the continent distribution hub except in bulk on a single truck at years end.

That single truck of say 50 bikes usually ended up at a wherever the continental distribution warehouse is to be listed on the employees/professional/industry insider/non-consumer section of their website for internal sale, warranty return reasons, etc...

The point was even the factory spares of 1 or 2 or 3 of a particular model are gone & not coming back. Do you really think an industry supply chain can operate properly with no buffer? None at all?

Just how tight can you pull a rubber band?

Do you think any business model would survive though if the factory/suppliers themselves were regularly sitting on large amounts of two year old, undesirable product?
This is exactly the concern everybody is having when the rubber band snaps...bubble burst, whatever, year-end Onesie-twosies becoming thousands, tens of thousands. Then what? Maybe a BF thread entitled: "The bubble is upon us?"

Nobody cares why you bought your bike. That your bike existed at all as a onsie-twosie meant that the supply chain was more or less smooth, predictable, able to be forecast with reasonable, acceptable accuracy.

You got lucky in that your bike was a 2 years old buffer bike sitting like a stuck link in the supply chain somewhere gumming up the works. Likely returned back to the manufacturer after being in the wild. Selling it to you at that time at discount yielded better profit for whoever was involved & was cheaper than the cost of dealing with it further. The loss of X-percent potential profit on 1 bike of a few thousand made was an acceptable trade because that one bike was displacing one that would yield full profit &/or the accumulated costs of it's existence teetered on becoming a loss.

Read this again.
There is more to supply chain than the bike slot at your LBS.

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Old 01-26-22, 01:28 PM
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Originally Posted by base2
Up to now, many factories & bike makers had 2 year old product. As day to day, month to month buffer in demand variability accumulated & compounded in various warehouses in various markets for various model as bean counters made their best guess of how many of X model in X size would be ordered in X place. It doesn't make sense for a satellite distribution warehouse to to ship one-off, year-end leftovers back the continent distribution hub except in bulk on a single truck at years end.

That single truck of say 50 bikes usually ended up at a wherever the continental distribution warehouse is to be listed on the employees/professional/industry insider/non-consumer section of their website for internal sale, warranty return reasons, etc...

The point was even the factory spares of 1 or 2 or 3 of a particular model are gone & not coming back. Do you really think an industry supply chain can operate properly with no buffer? None at all?

Just how tight can you pull a rubber band?


This is exactly the concern everybody is having when the rubber band snaps...bubble burst, whatever, year-end Onesie-twosies becoming thousands, tens of thousands. Then what? Maybe a BF thread entitled: "The bubble is upon us?"

Nobody cares why you bought your bike. That your bike existed at all as a onsie-twosie meant that the supply chain was more or less smooth, predictable, able to be forecast with reasonable, acceptable accuracy.

You got lucky in that your bike was a 2 years old buffer bike sitting like a stuck link in the supply chain somewhere gumming up the works. Likely returned back to the manufacturer after being in the wild. Selling it to you at that time at discount yielded better profit for whoever was involved & was cheaper than the cost of dealing with it further. The loss of X-percent potential profit on 1 bike of a few thousand made was an acceptable trade because that one bike was displacing one that would yield full profit &/or the accumulated costs of it's existence teetered on becoming a loss.

Read this again.
There is more to supply chain than the bike slot at your LBS.
Good stuff.
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Old 01-26-22, 03:10 PM
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Originally Posted by base2
Up to now, many factories & bike makers had 2 year old product. As day to day, month to month buffer in demand variability accumulated & compounded in various warehouses in various markets for various model as bean counters made their best guess of how many of X model in X size would be ordered in X place. It doesn't make sense for a satellite distribution warehouse to to ship one-off, year-end leftovers back the continent distribution hub except in bulk on a single truck at years end.

That single truck of say 50 bikes usually ended up at a wherever the continental distribution warehouse is to be listed on the employees/professional/industry insider/non-consumer section of their website for internal sale, warranty return reasons, etc...

The point was even the factory spares of 1 or 2 or 3 of a particular model are gone & not coming back. Do you really think an industry supply chain can operate properly with no buffer? None at all?

Just how tight can you pull a rubber band?


This is exactly the concern everybody is having when the rubber band snaps...bubble burst, whatever, year-end Onesie-twosies becoming thousands, tens of thousands. Then what? Maybe a BF thread entitled: "The bubble is upon us?"

Nobody cares why you bought your bike. That your bike existed at all as a onsie-twosie meant that the supply chain was more or less smooth, predictable, able to be forecast with reasonable, acceptable accuracy.

You got lucky in that your bike was a 2 years old buffer bike sitting like a stuck link in the supply chain somewhere gumming up the works. Likely returned back to the manufacturer after being in the wild. Selling it to you at that time at discount yielded better profit for whoever was involved & was cheaper than the cost of dealing with it further. The loss of X-percent potential profit on 1 bike of a few thousand made was an acceptable trade because that one bike was displacing one that would yield full profit &/or the accumulated costs of it's existence teetered on becoming a loss.

Read this again.
There is more to supply chain than the bike slot at your LBS.
Supply chain is so complex in fact that some of us have dedicated careers to it, it's a fields of study, there's tons of certifications available, etc.

The supply chain for bikes is way longer than 2 years as well. If you take into account design, tooling, prototyping and testing you are more on a 5 year lead time for many things. I "happened" to be "adjacently placed" to a major bike industry company having an engineering design meeting. It was something like 2013 or 2012 and they were covering products for model year 2019. I didn't hear any specifics obviously but was impressed they were "working that far in the future".

Even basic products have 1 year supply chains. Decide you want to make something and start placing orders, get everything made, assembled and shipped and received and you're roughly a year down the line.

Sure there are specific products or companies that gear themselves to shorter lead times, more efficient supply chains, etc but in almost all of those examples they have increased costs so they look to shorten the value stream between production and the customer (are usually consumer direct lets say).

I'm not too worried about the bike glut of inventory. Any possible overage will be relative and minimal. The big companies didn't go nuts producing - they have limited compacity and almost all of them were smart enough to know the peak in demand wasn't going to last. It's the shops that went nuts ordering... they're gonna be screwed.

I mean Trek will now control so many shops and be so consumer direct that they can theoretically just lock excess bikes in a warehouse and maintain an artificial shortage to maintain price integrity as long as they want. They know this.

Fun stuff. Already talking to cohosts about a podcast on this. should be fun and hopefully in the next week or so.
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Old 01-26-22, 03:13 PM
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Sorry - to build on that when the demand peak hit it wiped out what was in the chain and then quickly wiped out what was in process. The first items produced "since the hit" are really going to be hitting us late this season to next year. So yes - roughly that 2 year span between PO to delivery on in process product.

The interesting part is items like Shimano's GRX. it really isn't been readily available since launch and it's almost been out long enough to be looking for a revision to design in some way.

Oh and remember during the launch of the latest Ultegra and DA that they said it would be generally available to the aftermarket.... THIS quarter. My feed on facebook is flooded with pics of all the shop owners posing with their piles of New DA and Ultegra rotors. ... or not.
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Old 01-26-22, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001
Supply chain is so complex in fact that some of us have dedicated careers to it, it's a fields of study, there's tons of certifications available, etc.
.
.
.
.
Fun stuff. Already talking to cohosts about a podcast on this. should be fun and hopefully in the next week or so.
Cool. Looking forward to another podcast. The Powertap one was high quality & informative.
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Old 01-26-22, 07:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001
I mean Trek will now control so many shops and be so consumer direct that they can theoretically just lock excess bikes in a warehouse and maintain an artificial shortage to maintain price integrity as long as they want. They know this.
Trek to become the DeBeers of bicycles? I don't know about that ...

But if that comes to pass, I suppose I should be happy that Canyon's Carlsbad showroom is on my way to the office.
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Old 01-27-22, 01:57 PM
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One of the big brands is having an "all hands" dealer zoom meeting today. Implications are that it is a big announcement. .....
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Old 01-27-22, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001

This all gets back to the same question I constantly ask and have been asking for over 16 years - "Do you need or want a bike shop to exist? If so what is it about the shop that really represents value to you?" For most here that's an easy question. I have found the general cycling enthusiast population generally does want shops to be around but really can't articulate why.
For me, at the end of the day what I want is to lay my hands on something and see it, size it, get a feel for it. I have no use for a repair shop, I can fix it, build it or make it. Last year I built three wheelsets, a paltry number compared to you I'm sure, but I have another three sets planned for this year and might end up with a few more, it keeps me in practice. I've got all the tools and equipment bought over the years. What I no longer have since changing careers, is the ability to walk into work and see the changes that are happening all around. Somehow I missed that Rival AXS was released last year, didn't see it on any new bikes till this week, to see it working on a bike, feel how it worked and how the shifters were shaped meant that I left with a rear der and right shifter, unfortunately I'm finding the left shifter impossible to find. This is for my daughter's new cross bike, I've ordered a Miwaukee, and based on geometry I believe it will fit, but I went to all the local shops first to try and fit her on one. Had any of them had a cross bike in her size that I could have fit her on, I would have probably left with it. It took me weeks and a lot of searching before deciding to drop the cash on a frame I can't see. Unless its a real bargain, I don't like guessing on things like this. I bought a poseidon frame after the pandemic started to cover the kind of riding my wife and I do. She likes hers, I think the fit sucks, just don't like the feel of the bike at all. A test ride would have shown me that and I wouldn't have wasted the money. I still use it cause I can't find another frame I can try out and I don't want to waste more money. For the most part I think shops exist for the average consumer, where they can get what they see as a good bike, with good service and know plenty would just assume buy their new bike online to save money, I get it since I've dealt with them. But unless it was used, or a real bargain like the poseidon, we've bought at least 9 bikes in the last 4 years local.
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Old 01-27-22, 03:10 PM
  #171  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001
One of the big brands is having an "all hands" dealer zoom meeting today. Implications are that it is a big announcement. .....
Bigger than the WaveCel?
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Old 01-27-22, 03:22 PM
  #172  
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001
This is well written.

“There shouldn’t be a de facto floating cartel to control this industry. And hopefully, as we resurrect antitrust law, there won’t be.”

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/t...bCckFfjmlkpWaQ
Indeed! The problem is that antitrust law has not really been enforced in the USA for a very long time. I took antitrust law in 2000, when most of the key cases were from the mid 1980s, and that is pretty much still the case today. The current administration talks like antitrust may make a comeback, but the FTC and DOJ have much bigger fish to fry, e.g., Big Tech. Even assuming that everything Matt Stoller said above is true, the bicycle industry is just not a priority for antitrust enforcement.

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Old 01-27-22, 05:35 PM
  #173  
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I have to imagine this is the big news:

SPECIALIZED ADDS CONSUMER DIRECT SALES
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Old 01-27-22, 08:37 PM
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So does that count as bigger than WaveCel?
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Old 01-28-22, 04:09 AM
  #175  
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Originally Posted by Sy Reene
I have to imagine this is the big news:

SPECIALIZED ADDS CONSUMER DIRECT SALES
Last weekend I drove a few hours to go pick up a new Aspero. When I was at the shop, the owner was telling me how Specialized was prioritizing order filling to shops that did not have a company owned store within some distance. What a crappy way to do business.

Psimet2001 what I want in an LBS to to be able to drop a bike of and have it be ready in a day. I don’t want to bring it in for new BB bearings and be told I have to leave it for a week- just let me bring it in when you’re ready to work on it- I’d pay 1.5x labor for that.
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