cooker

There was already a trend for more cycling infrastructure, but if only existing cyclists switch to e-bikes it wouldn't have much additional impact - same number of cyclists. However if e-bikes attract new people (which may in fact be happening) then we will see even greater acceleration of accommodations for two wheels.

Maelochs

It is a chicken-eats-the-egg thing: will enough people start e-biking so that the cities start building safer bike access, or will people be too afraid to e-bike in the current environment, so the push for better bike infrastructure will falter and flatten out?

I have no clue, but I think even with awesome bike lanes and huge safety increases, e-bikes will still be the only real growth segment.

linberl

I'd love to see carbon fiber velomobiles. I'd buy one now, lol. Solves the commuting in crappy weather problem some folks have. Has cargo capacity. Can have space for a passenger or kids. Manual nexus (or the next iteration) drive and e assist. No insurance or registration required. Replaces the 2d car in most families.

cooker

Yes, but that means new people, not existing cyclists switching. Of course, I think some will switch as we get older, but we need fresh blood too (not on the street!)

However as pointed out before, places like Copenhagen and Amsterdam show that the segment of the population willing to cycle is much higher than we might realize, if the culture, climate and facilities support it.

prj71

e-bikes will replace pedal bikes so the number of bikes "out there" in use will stay the same while people become fatter from not using a real bike.

Maelochs

I sort of disagree. Older riders will possibly gravitate to e-bikes as their bodies break down, but I expect the number of people who want to ride pedal-powered bikes will remain constant because it is work.

I expect more bikes in general because I expect more people who don't want to or always want to drive a car will see e-bikes a a reasonable alternative---cheaper and easier to license, insure, operate than a real motorcycle, but sufficiently speedy so around-town trips become feasible for people not fit enough or willing enough to ride a bike.

cooker

Thanks - you are really getting into the spirit of the thread, with specific predictions.

Maelochs

"Spirit" of the thread? Time to send this one to P&R.

McBTC

e-bikes will replace spare tires on new cars...

tmac100

Love it

Walter S

Cute. But most people don't want a much bigger and expensive solution, and one that still leaves their car (and its passengers and other content) abandoned on the side of the road.

cooker

We had a thread on this before, or maybe it was in this thread - I can't find it right now. Such a bike does exist, at least as a concept bike: https://www.fastcompany.com/1632669/...re-compartment.

Some new cars are starting to come without spare tires, on the assumption that either flats are extremely rare, and/or you could use a temporary inflation kit to get you to a service centre, and/or people will call for a tow truck rather than try to fix it themself, or whatever. So in theory, some people might decide to eschew a spare tire, and have a bike in their spare tire compartment (if they have one) either for emergency backup, or more likely for mixed mode travel. However I doubt it will catch on much.

tandempower

It's actually more work to maintain a calm pedaling cadence/torque than to give in to impatience and pedal as hard as possible to get to your destination faster. I notice this because when I want to stay cool on my commute, I try to stay relaxed and pedal at the fastest rate that requires minimal effort but my inclination is to pedal faster.

The motor-reliance culture causes people to get used to sitting absolutely still and thus associate any amount of physical activity with effort, but the reality is that anything you're used to feels like less effort than something you have to push yourself to do.

tandempower

Plus with self-driving cars, there will be no reason to have a spare tire on board cars at all, because passengers will just get picked up by another car while the one with the flat waits for a tire-changing robot to show up with a tire.

Walter S

Perhaps, unless you own your self driving car and there's no fleet management going on.

cooker

Yes, so this is what remains to be seen. Will self-driving cars lead to a surge in car-services and effectively increased sharing of cars and fewer cars in production; or will people still own private cars at the level they do today or even higher, and continue to use them primarily as sole owner/occupant?

My own opinion is that self-driving cars will accelerate the trend we are already seeing towards app-based-rides and car-sharing, and that at least some young healthy people will combine that with more walking, public transit and cycling, leading to less car use and ownership. I also think networking the cars will lead to more ride sharing, as Uber is now starting to offer as a discounted service. If you're being driven to King and Bay, and you get a text that if you agree to the car picking up Joe along the route, because he's also going to King and Bay, then your fare will be reduced by 40%, and there's a plexiglass shield between your seat and Joe's, and it will only add 90 seconds to your travel time, why wouldn't you do it?

However, of course it could go the other way, and since self-driving cars take some of the stress out of driving and also worrying about parking, they might lead to people taking more car trips, including both short and long trips.

cooker

For summer commuting I've trained myself to ride just below the sweating threshold, so I can ride to work in an office shirt and shorts and all I have to do is put on long pants at the office. Initially it took a lot of conscious discipline but now it is second nature. Mind you, your summer is probably hotter and more humid, and I have the advantage that much of my route to work is gently downhill, and I can coast a lot.

I posted before about how one time I was on a rec ride in the direction of my office and I kept having to remind myself that I didn't need to hold back, and it was okay that I was sweating a bit; but once I veered off my normal commute route I stopped thinking about it and rode as fast as I felt like.

Walter S

Sort of. It takes mental discipline to back off and carefully set your effort. But it's of course never less work to pedal as hard as possible. That makes no sense. As hard as possible is well, as hard as possible! Nothing is more work than that except maybe harder than possible

Maelochs

In many parts of the country (not Canada) it is impossible to step outside during several months of the year without sweating through your shirt in half-an-hour.

Walter S

Seems like some people are really set on avoiding sweat. During warm weather I don't mind sweat at all and I never bother reducing my effort specifically to not sweat. OTOH if it's below about 40F outside and I'll be riding for more than 1/2 hour I'll try to avoid sweating much so I don't go from hot to wet and freezing. That takes being careful about my effort and/or being real selective about how many layers of clothing and adjusting layers quickly when necessary. It also means being intentionally chilly when I depart, as though I should have put more on.

Maelochs

If a person is more comfortable riding slowly and not carrying a change of clothes ... I don't know where cooker works ,... but most of the places I have worked (except working from home) people made it inconvenient to some small extent to change, wash, store wet clothes ....

I understand that most people in a place of business don't want sweaty clothes hanging anywhere ... or wet clothes on a rainy day. Can't blame them.

I also know that when I was commuting in Florida it took half an hour or 45 minutes for my core temperature to drop in the summer ... meaning I could wash as much as I liked, i was still going to sweat a river for the first 30 minutes after I arrived.

When I worked in air-conditioned offices the sweating time was shorter ... but still, I couldn't put on my work clothes fro half an hour, which had to be added to my commute time.

Walter S

Different strokes for different folks. I want to get more of a workout out of my bike ride and get their a little quicker too. At my office there's a shower and exercise room with personal lockers where I can cleanup, change clothes, etc. By the time I'm done with that, little sweating will happen. The investment in time hardly matters because I don't shower at home - just when I get to work. But as current as my attitude is, I'm really talking history here - lately they've had me telecommuting which I don't like as much.

tandempower

I've often heard of people getting rides and/or a car to use while theirs is out-of-service. I don't know why people would own their own self-driving car, but if they did, they could still leave it for the towing service and take a ride in another vehicle to go somewhere else.

tandempower

You're right. Really pushing yourself for speed is work and effort, the best kind. But if I have been cranking out 20+mph for a while and I back off to 18/16/14 or whatever feels like a rest, it's more relaxing to cruise at that speed than it would to, say, stop the bike completely and sit still.

Anyway, I think the more important point is that physical/manual labor isn't necessarily uncomfortable. What makes people uncomfortable about biking and/or walking isn't the small amount of physical movement required, but rather the fact that they are not used to it and so it requires more mental effort to pay attention to everything they need to pay attention to.

Driving is also a lot more effort when you're not used to it. Once you've gotten in the habit of driving a certain vehicle, for example, it can be uncomfortable to switch to a different vehicle, e.g. from a small car to a big truck or vice versa. Even with the muscles you use to pedal, if you're not used to using that combination of muscles in that way, it feels like more work and you might get some soreness until you get used to riding, but when you are used to riding all the time, it's a comfortable as sitting behind a computer, steering wheel, or wherever; except it actually feels better because you're able to let your energy flow through your legs, see the immediate fruits of your labor in the form of motion and breeze, etc.

tandempower

I feel hotter and sweat more when the weather changes from hot to warm than after I've adjusted to the summer heat for a while. I think core heat and muscle tension adjusts to temperature expectations as part of homeostasis, so you start eating differently/less as summer is approaching, relaxing you vascular system, etc. Many people in hot climates eat spicy food to make them sweat, which cools you down and you feel cooler once the small amount of sweat dries. To me, it's just generally a process of adjusting to the heat by getting out and sweating in it and then relaxing in it, moving between sun and shade, and otherwise training my body to know when to calm down, open its pores, and generally harmonize itself with the heat.

Theoretically, if you were a real master at it, you could function in 98F temperatures without sweating at all by turning off all heat-generating bodily activity and just resonating with the external temperature. Of course, I'm not sure that's really possible with everything your body needs to do just to rest, such as pump blood through your organs, digest food, perform cell maintenance, think, etc.