Bulette

This research is a bit sensational (not necessarily wrong). I normally appreciate the League's research and reports; then again, perhaps the sensationalism was added by the secondary reporting and not the source material.

Why not just have a look at the data? Census Table B08301, Means of Transportation to Work, available for at least 10 years, 2010-2019. Bicycle commuting has stayed rather steady -- as you exclaim, consistently less than one million.

PDKL45

For those wondering why the pipeline was being run by software connected to the Internet where it could be hacked, it was a ransomware attack. Most of the time the malicious software comes as a plausible attachment to an email. When someone using a computer attached to the pipeline network opens the attachment, the "hackers" then gain access and encrypt the data on the network, holding access to the data hostage until they receive a ransom. I don't know if it happened in this case, but in all probability, the network was never exposed and waiting for the hacker known as 4chan to come along and do bad things to it.

I don't think this single gas shortage event will trigger a new bike boom, as I would argue that one is already underway and has been for around 12 months now. It's a recreational cycling boom, though, not a utility cycling boom. Cycling equipment shortages are all to apparent to many of us right now and demand is still markedly up from where it was 18 months ago in the cycling industry; it still hasn't really slowed down. All of the major players, not least Shimano, are deeply concerned that demand will wane, the boom will go bust, and if they ramp up production, they'll be left out of pocket with a lot of inventory they can't sell.

However, I believe the big shift (and perhaps boom) in terms of utility/transportation cycling will be a move to ebikes and ebike type velomobiles or small urban vehicles. In some parts of the world, utility cycling is picking up, but it's largely an ebike boom, as people don't like hardship for whatever reason. Traditional cycling will, I am sure, also continue to be popular, but I think any transportation-focused bike boom will be an ebike boom. Where I live near Seoul, in South Korea, I see a huge amount of pedal assist 25 km/h limited ebikes being ridden by commuters, and it's great. The thing is, we have a lot of infrastructure here, with arterial bike paths along the city's major river and its main north and south tributaries, as well as cycling lanes on pavements and lenient police enforcement of cycling on pavements not specifically designated for bikes. The Europeans also have abundant infrastructure and a culture surrounding utility cycling that's probably unmatched elsewhere. They have taken to ebikes in record numbers, especially for transportation. Still, even in places where utility cycling is popular, the car is still king.

For there to be a bike boom in the US, for transportation/utility cycling, there would need to be a cultural shift and a fundamental change in mindset, rather than a single gas shortage event, and I don't really see it happening quickly. I believe there is a huge, perhaps unprecedented, boom for recreational cycling in the US right now, but as a transportation alternative due to gas shortages? It seems unlikely.