Paul Barnard

Well folks, today's time trial effectively ended this year's TDF. Pogacar was going to have a hell of a time making up a few seconds on Vingegaard. There's no way he can make up the difference now, barring an accident or injury. Jonas is a better rider with an appreciably better team.

msu2001la

How much time did the bike change add?
I'd love to see some more detailed stats. The actual change was probably around 15-20 seconds to slow/stop, swap and accelerate back up to speed. But did the lighter climbing bike actually save him any time, or did the lack of aero cost further time?

Eric F 

While it looks that way, there are still a couple of tough mountain stages ahead. You can expect Pogi to punch hard, and if Jonas has a bad day, things could flip in a hurry.

Eric F 

Apparently, Jumbo concluded that aero was a bigger advantage than light + bike change. It seems they were right.

USAZorro

Counting down to the big Jumbo scandal erupting.

The insanity of the performance today will have a lot of people looking at them very, very closely, and it's hard to believe he's THAT much better.

Eric F 

Since Pogi and Jonas had different approaches regarding bike choice, that makes it harder to say it was entirely about human performance. It at least gives Jumbo something to point at to distract from anything else that might be going on.

79pmooney

Pogacar beat Van Aert, a very strong rider by 1:13. That bike change didn't cost him a lot. Maybe 10 seconds after figuring in the benefit. Vingegaard was on a different planet today. He was gaining before the hill, during the hill and after the hill.

And yes, a lot of people will be looking very hard at Vingegaard and J-V as a team from now on. I hope they are clean but this is looking awfully familiar.

Eric F 

Hmmm...

msu2001la

I'm not one to get in the way of a good doping suspicion, but today was an uphill TT with a Cat 2 climb that was over 9% for 2.5k. It seems like it would have been shocking if anyone other than Pogacar or Jonas won today and doesn't seems surprising that they were well out in front of the pack.

How many other riders really thought they had a chance to win today? I don't imagine Yates and Rodriguez (who still did pretty well) were exactly emptying the tanks to battle it out for 3rd place when there's still two more days in the mountains.

roadcrankr

Hey, thanks for putting a spoiler in your post subject.
Many of us cannot watch each stage until later in the day.
Maybe try thinking a little more next time.

TMonk

As much as I wanted WvA to win today - that finish did not suit him. Also, Pogacar is known to struggle in the heat (or so I'm told) - maybe that was a factor? The outcome doesn't surprise me. But, having Vingegaard that far ahead in Eric F's distribution above is a bit alarming. Another possible explanation - most riders weren't going for the win and were saving something in the tank for the subsequent stages for their respective roles as domestiques or going for the stage?

IDK, lots of factors. I want to believe Jonas is clean. The course suites him well, he is the best rider, and maybe had the highest TSS/effort level on the day?

Eric F 

While I agree that the order of the results isn't surprising. Jonas being almost 2kph faster than Pogi is quite surprising. Shocking, IMO.

slcbob

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

semroc

lmao

unterhausen

I changed the title of this thread because it was a little too close to a spoiler.

asgelle

So someone who doesn't understand stage racing decides to make a pretty picture.

nomadmax 

I smell Floyd Landis. Since the begining of this Tour, for the most part, you could cover those two with a blanket. Then today? And Pog had a great ride, it isn't like he fell apart or crashed. A gap that big on a short TT between two guys that can't get rid of each other, smells funny to me. But, I don't care if any or all of them are doped to the gills. There's no such thing as "clean racing", the genie has been out of the bottle, for a while, and you can't get it back in.

Eric F 

Do you think it misrepresents something? It's just data. It also doesn't really have anything to do with stage racing. It's only today's TT. Personally, I find it interesting.

gpsblake

Throughout let's say the past 30 years, has anything like this every happened on a time trial stage in a grand tour????

And from a guy who has won 2 TTT in his entire career in all of racing, but finished up over 2mph faster than the 3rd place???

Sorry, something's not right. Maybe they got a way around the testing or something.. Looking at the 2022 TTT at stage 20 makes this result even more questionable.

MinnMan

People should remember that Pog broke his wrist in late April and that this messed up his training schedule. He didn't bring the same form to the Tour this year that he has in past years.

asgelle

Since 90% or so of the peloton wasn't riding their hardest, what does it mean to compare their times. Look at Ciccone for example. What does his average speed tell us?

MinnMan

You mean the last 3 years?

People have short memories.

MinnMan

Statement is self-evidently unpursuasive. If the Peloton is 100 riders or thereabouts, then 10 riders were riding their hardest. Presumably that was mostly those in the top 10 of the GC. The distribution in that graph still looks skewed compared to the rest of the top 10.

asgelle

If you think 156 is 100 or thereabouts, well ...

gpsblake

No where near what happened today.

He won by 1 minute 21 over 2nd place who Dumolin and 3rd place Porte, Rolgic finished 5th that day 1:56 in 2020

Oh and that TTT in 2020 was 4nearly twice as long (55 minutes 55 seconds was the winning time, today's was 32 minutes 36 seconds)

The gap today was 2:51 to 3rd..... If the same mph difference had applied in 2020, it would have been 5 minutes 30 seconds ahead of 3rd

Sorry, something's up.