Cycle Industry’s Collapse After Bike Boom Ends This Year, Say Analysts
#1
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 22,998
Bikes: old ones
Mentioned: 305 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 26482 Post(s)
Liked 10,449 Times
in
7,248 Posts
Cycle Industry’s Collapse After Bike Boom Ends This Year, Say Analysts
.
..from Forbes.
..from Forbes.
According to an analysis by Yahoo in Taiwan, the bicycle industry is facing a “super cold winter” of falling demand. Asian suppliers of cycles and cycle components have yet to recover from the inevitable market crash that followed the Covid bike boom and still carry high inventory levels.
.
The revenue in the first half of the year for Japan’s Shimano, the world’s largest manufacturer of cycle transmission systems, decreased by about 13% year-on-year, with projections of an annual decrease of 28%.
...SRAM, the world’s second-largest shifting system manufacturer, reported on August 9 that its Taichung, Taiwan, factory would lay off workers, a shock to the globalized industry.
Guimeng, the world’s largest supplier of cycle chains, has seen its revenue in the first half of the year decrease by 34%.
...As well as selling under its own brand name Giant also makes complete bikes for brands such as Scott and Colnago. Giant’s half-year European product sales were down 12%, while US sales fell by 44%. (E-bike sales provided 35% of Giant’s half-year revenues.)
.
The revenue in the first half of the year for Japan’s Shimano, the world’s largest manufacturer of cycle transmission systems, decreased by about 13% year-on-year, with projections of an annual decrease of 28%.
...SRAM, the world’s second-largest shifting system manufacturer, reported on August 9 that its Taichung, Taiwan, factory would lay off workers, a shock to the globalized industry.
Guimeng, the world’s largest supplier of cycle chains, has seen its revenue in the first half of the year decrease by 34%.
...As well as selling under its own brand name Giant also makes complete bikes for brands such as Scott and Colnago. Giant’s half-year European product sales were down 12%, while US sales fell by 44%. (E-bike sales provided 35% of Giant’s half-year revenues.)
#2
Veteran, Pacifist
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Seattle area
Posts: 13,430
Bikes: Bikes??? Thought this was social media?!?
Mentioned: 284 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3949 Post(s)
Liked 4,956 Times
in
2,283 Posts
Thank god. I need a deal on Campagnolo! If there is a glut.
__________________
Vintage, modern, e-road. It is a big cycling universe.
Vintage, modern, e-road. It is a big cycling universe.
Likes For Wildwood:
#3
señor miembro
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Pac NW
Posts: 6,713
Bikes: '70s - '80s Campagnolo
Mentioned: 93 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3954 Post(s)
Liked 6,642 Times
in
3,287 Posts
"Industry analysts believe 2023 will be a trough year, with sales recovering through 2024 and beyond and at a more sustainable level than the heights of the Covid bike boom."
Likes For SurferRosa:
#5
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Mich
Posts: 7,667
Bikes: RSO E-tire dropper fixie brifter
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Liked 3,175 Times
in
2,016 Posts
Only looking to pounce, if the good parts & accessory tech are severely underpriced.
chains, cranks, cassettes, hubs, & lights.
chains, cranks, cassettes, hubs, & lights.
__________________
-YMMV
-YMMV
#6
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 22,998
Bikes: old ones
Mentioned: 305 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 26482 Post(s)
Liked 10,449 Times
in
7,248 Posts
Likes For 3alarmer:
#7
Let your bike be the tool
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: NC/SC border
Posts: 945
Bikes: '66 Raleigh Carlton, '70 Ron Cooper, '95 Bianchi CD'I, Zonal Frame with Xenon gruppo, Carbon Frame with Record Gruppo, Columbia Twosome, Terry Classic, Bianchi SX, Gravity SS/FG
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 342 Post(s)
Liked 317 Times
in
197 Posts
Likes For cranky old road:
Likes For MaxKatt:
#9
Sunshine
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Des Moines, IA
Posts: 16,785
Bikes: '18 class built steel roadbike, '19 Fairlight Secan, '88 Schwinn Premis , Black Mountain Cycles Monstercross V4, '89 Novara Trionfo
Mentioned: 124 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11104 Post(s)
Liked 7,712 Times
in
4,293 Posts
When you have $7000 bikes spec'd with heavy basic sram rival axs, yeah I am not surprised to hear there is a glut of product compared to interest.
Likes For mstateglfr:
#10
Steel is real
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Not far from Paris
Posts: 2,051
Bikes: 1992Giant Tourer,1992MeridaAlbon,1996Scapin,1998KonaKilaueua,1993Peugeot Prestige,1991RaleighTeamZ(to be upgraded),1998 Jamis Dragon,1992CTWallis(to be built),1998VettaTeam(to be built),1995Coppi(to be built),1993Grandis(to be built)
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 690 Post(s)
Liked 1,021 Times
in
679 Posts
I will be on the hunt for more shimano dura ace older components. Probably there will be some deals to be made regarding Shimano new high end stuff. Interesting to know that Giant makes bikes for Scott and Colnago.
#11
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Northern CA
Posts: 743
Bikes: Cannondale tandems: '92 Road, '97 Mtn. Mongoose 10.9 Ti, Kelly Deluxe, Tommaso Chorus, Cdale MT2000, Schwinn Deluxe Cruiser, Torker Unicycle, among others.
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 279 Post(s)
Liked 207 Times
in
129 Posts
Ibis OSO MSRP: $10,999.00
On sale: $7,198.94 (Jenson USA)
Good enough for ya?!!!!
On sale: $7,198.94 (Jenson USA)
Good enough for ya?!!!!
Likes For LV2TNDM:
#13
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,913
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 536 Post(s)
Liked 702 Times
in
415 Posts
Numbers like 20% or 34% down from Covid sales are irrelevant at the retail level. The glut (or shortage) will work it's way through the pipeline without much effect at the LBSs. Anyone whose business model relies on bike sales for profits, is doing it wrong (and won't be doing it for long). But what do I know, I am still a newbie a few months short of 1/2 a century in this racket...
Likes For wheelreason:
#14
working on my sandal tan
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: CID
Posts: 22,648
Bikes: 1991 Bianchi Eros, 1964 Armstrong, 1988 Diamondback Ascent, 1988 Bianchi Premio, 1987 Bianchi Sport SX, 1980s Raleigh mixte (hers), All-City Space Horse (hers)
Mentioned: 98 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3874 Post(s)
Liked 2,579 Times
in
1,586 Posts
#15
Senior Member
In my neck of the woods, e-bikes seem to be the only segment doing well. Everything else is way down.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
#17
Full Member
Don't see cycling industry fade away in developing countries, but it may in developed countries like US, UK, Canada, or Australia. It's just countries' economics and people's mentalities.
Why cook a homemade meal and clean the kitchen when you can grab the same from a fast-food drive-thru and dispose of the takeout containers in the trash bin? Isn't it?
In my neck of the woods, e-bikes seem to be the only segment doing well. Everything else is way down.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
#18
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,052
Mentioned: 27 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2538 Post(s)
Liked 769 Times
in
537 Posts
In my neck of the woods, e-bikes seem to be the only segment doing well. Everything else is way down.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
#19
Clark W. Griswold
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: ,location, location
Posts: 14,026
Bikes: Foundry Chilkoot Ti W/Ultegra Di2, Salsa Timberjack Ti, Cinelli Mash Work RandoCross Fun Time Machine, 1x9 XT Parts Hybrid, Co-Motion Cascadia, Specialized Langster, Phil Wood Apple VeloXS Frame (w/DA 7400), R+M Supercharger2 Rohloff, Habanero Ti 26
Mentioned: 56 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4526 Post(s)
Liked 4,230 Times
in
2,830 Posts
In my neck of the woods, e-bikes seem to be the only segment doing well. Everything else is way down.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
I think it's going to be that way from now on. This is the new normal. I don't see non-motorized bike technology ever appealing to the public again if motorized bikes are available and affordable. Why pedal if a motor will do it for you?
I'm OK with all this. I've had my fun. I don't begrudge anyone their e-bike. Eventually we might all get to the point where pedaling isn't an option, but riding a motorized bike is. Nothing wrong with that.
Likes For CrimsonEclipse:
#21
Disco Infiltrator
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Folsom CA
Posts: 13,464
Bikes: Stormchaser, Paramount, Tilt, Samba tandem
Mentioned: 72 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3133 Post(s)
Liked 2,116 Times
in
1,379 Posts
The bike industry booms and busts. But the last four years have been really off the rails, it’s obvious to anyone now. It’s hardly just bikes either
#23
Randomhead
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Happy Valley, Pennsylvania
Posts: 24,508
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4 Post(s)
Liked 3,802 Times
in
2,593 Posts
The word "collapse" is so ugly. I think the business would normally call it a "retreat" or "realignment." It's not like the big factories are going under. Giant and the other contract manufacturing companies are still going to be building bikes for almost every bike company. I imagine there are at least a few bicycle marketing companies that are going to have problems staying in business.
#24
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sacramento, CA
Posts: 22,998
Bikes: old ones
Mentioned: 305 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 26482 Post(s)
Liked 10,449 Times
in
7,248 Posts
#25
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: NJ, USA
Posts: 1,286
Bikes: two blacks, a blue and a white.
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 446 Post(s)
Liked 850 Times
in
412 Posts
Well, maybe a cold winter coming, but a quick review of Shimano shows a couple of relevant factors to consider...
looking at earnings per share, 2021 was an *** 83% *** jump over 2020. That's followed by a 12% jump in the next Y-o-Y eps of 12%. In two years, eps doubled.
So, if 2023 drops 40% (street estimates), they're still doing pretty damned well. The 2024 and 2025 estimates are higher, so Shimano is expected to maintain earnings significantly above 2020 levels. Far from alaming.
The 2020 eps was 22% higher than 2019.
I don't think anyone at this big (biggest?) bike component maker is going to miss a single meal.
Giant manufacturing shows a very similar profile. 2023 earnings are forecast to be above both 2018 and 2019.
This illustrates that it's tough, as a reporter, to get attention without hyperbole.
looking at earnings per share, 2021 was an *** 83% *** jump over 2020. That's followed by a 12% jump in the next Y-o-Y eps of 12%. In two years, eps doubled.
So, if 2023 drops 40% (street estimates), they're still doing pretty damned well. The 2024 and 2025 estimates are higher, so Shimano is expected to maintain earnings significantly above 2020 levels. Far from alaming.
The 2020 eps was 22% higher than 2019.
I don't think anyone at this big (biggest?) bike component maker is going to miss a single meal.
Giant manufacturing shows a very similar profile. 2023 earnings are forecast to be above both 2018 and 2019.
This illustrates that it's tough, as a reporter, to get attention without hyperbole.