willibrord

We are on the cusp of a paradigm change in touring bikes. The catalyst is the move from racks and panniers to bike packing bags. No longer are braze ons and attachments for racks such a vital feature of touring bikes. This means that steel is no longer the preferred material and carbon fiber and more ecologically sound constructions such as bamboo and hemp can come to the fore.
The median touring bike five years from now will not be an LHT, at least not the LHT that we now know.

saddlesores

or not.....

perhaps in a year or three, the marketing geeks will have found they've
sucked all the profit potential out of the new and improved bike-a-packing
lifestyle model, and have moved on to more lucrative pastures.......
leaving the bamboo-n-hemp gimmick followers to craigslist all their
newly obsolete futurewave touring appliances so's they can jump
on the next paradigm bandwagon to maintain their crisp edginess.

as us ludditivists place our orders for the 100th anniversary edition
of the inferior lht.......

if i'm wrong, well, cycle touring will go the way of colonel sanders...

willibrord

There are bigger things happening in the world than just cycling trends. Climate change and the policies to deal with it are going to have major effects on everything we do. Things like carbon taxes will push more resources towards activities like cycling, but within cycling it will favor newer lower carbon forms of building like bamboo and hemp and away from industrial energy intensive methods like steel and aluminium.

The times, they are a changing.

mstateglfr 

Um...
So many thoughts here, its gonna be tough to organize.


- To put it mildly, you are way off on your timeline. 5 years from now there may be more options in the 'touring' category, but they will mostly be 'adventure' bikes meant for overnight camping rides. A fully loaded touring segment will still exist and be popular due to the versatility and cost.
- Bikepacking bags are insanely expensive. Part of this is because its a cottage industry and as it becomes more popular, costs will drop due to cheaper manufacturers coming into the market. But they are still extremely expensive on a $/liter standpoint compared to the well established rack and pannier route.
- Bikepacking bags dont hold near the volume of panniers. This is an obvious issue and a big issue since many who tour need more volume than a frame bag, bar roll, and saddle wedge protrusion thingy can hold.
- Have I mentioned the cost of good bikepacking gear?...even the current lower quality mass produced gear is expensive per liter of storage.
- Brazeons and racks are absolutely important. They are critical, actually. How often are people touring without a rack? Better asked- how many miles are being ridden rackless vs racked? There is no way of answering this with actual data, so its observational and that answer is little rackless miles compared to ton of racked miles.

- You mention environmental impact. This is an incredibly valid and very interesting subject with relation to the bicycle industry. I think its absolutely important to discuss the environmental impact of a bike being manufactured and any ideas on how to reduce the overall negative impact should be discussed and weighed.
Thing is, one of my touring bikes(sport touring) is from 1980. My full touring bike is from 1990. One is over 35 years old and the other is a quarter century old. I could easily see having both for another 20 years as they are serviced properly and components can be swapped when needed.
New LHTs and Trek 520s(as well as other current welded steel touring bikes) should last 40 years, unless crashed or something like that. Basically, there is no reason to think most couldnt last well past 2050. This can be supported by the sheer number of touring and sport touring bikes still in use from the 80s(and lesser extent the 70s since most from that decade dont have the build of a current touring bike as that started about mid80s).

With the known lifespan of quality steel bikes(of which all steel touring bikes I know of would qualify), are they really so much worse than a bamboo or carbon fiber made bike? What about when you add in the volume of carbon frames which dont last as long, so a consumer has 2 carbon frames for every 1 steel(or 3 for every 2).



Sorry, but 5 years from now there may be more adventure bikes capable of taking a rider off the beaten path with some camping gear, but the equipment will almost for sure still be more expensive(good quality compared to good quality evenly) and the packable volumes will still be more limited. Racks and panniers will still be the predominant way to tour for more than a weekend.
With that said- i legitimately could see more frame bags being used on traditional touring bikes.

fietsbob

The Push from the components makers is towards more complexity .. and then convincing you you Must Upgrade
Reading Here their Marketing works ..

Trevtassie

Hell will freeze over before I tour without two reasonable sized pots so I can have a pasta meal with decent amounts of sauce; Plus a 6 pack of beer, somewhere to cook said pasta out of the rain without making my tent smell like a kitchen and somewhere to keep stuff relatively cold.
Plus being able to unclip my panniers and carry them up a set of stairs and go back and get my bike.

Happy Feet

I think you just have to look at what motivates innovation and how touring people react to that.

If we accept that innovation usually is sought to fill a perceived need:

As long as new people seek traditional loaded touring bikes they will probably seek traditionally made touring bikes.
What is needed is a strong bike to carry a rider in a relaxed position for moderate to long distances up and down hills.The bikes already available work well and tick off all the boxes so, other than fads, which may or may not last, there is no push to spend/design "better". The need is met - even if some guy says it isn't on a touring forum somewhere. One area that may develop is the IGH and belt drive. Otherwise, there is an outlet for the high end POV, it's called custom order and that works well enough as it is.

The problem with trying to mass produce an off the shelf ultimate touring bike is that people who seek such things are very particular about modifications and would never be completely satisfied, as a group, with whatever was presented. Joe wants 36h rims, Fred 40. 700cc/26". Drop bar/trekking bar... Just make a thread here as to what components would comprise the ultimate touring bike and watch the fun ensue.

When innovations do occur is when the tour(er) wants to change the parameters of the tour and thus, the equipment used. Off road tourers wanted/needed a different bike to handle the terrain demands so we see "adventure bikes" and bike packing gear being developed. When it's an off road race we see cyclocross bikes being used (important point).

When tourers want to go faster they do seek lighter bikes and performance oriented gear, especially if there is a competitive angle like randoneering or races like RAMM or Trans Am. There is always the conflict of comfort/reliability vs speed/performance. It's a potent driver.

Now for that important point! When people make that leap they do not look for a traditional touring bike made out of exotic, high priced materials - they look for stronger road racing bikes that maybe offer fatter tires and a relaxed geometry. Just like off road riders look towards cyclocross for their needs. All the design innovation has already been done and manufactured and is immediately available without custom ordering or creating a new class of touring bike. Cervelo, Felt, Trek road bikes... all are being used by fast CC or supported tourers. No one asks Surly to custom make a LHT with CF for that sort of riding.

So, yes some people look to faster, lighter, more exotic bikes for touring. That happens. And they mostly look to the large pool of already available advanced and tested bikes in other genres. No fast/racing tourer is looking for a bike that can also carry 50lb's of gear in 4 panniers. That's the essential disconnect.

I'm in that zone right now as I want to do a longer tour faster, probably CC or supported in the future. I'm not looking at robust touring bikes and wishing I could make them lighter. I'm looking at fast road bikes and wondering how I can make them tour capable.

BigAura

I'm all for a carbon touring bike but if it's not at least as good as steel in every way then it makes no sense. As far as steel is concerned it's an infinitely recyclable material. Plus a steel bike-frame can last a lifetime with minimal maintenance. I just toured on my bike frame from 1970, worked perfectly.

mstateglfr 

If Shimano made a 5arm 110/74 bcd triple in 105 quality or higher, thatd be cool.

Squeezebox

Stuff like that is out there inc. carbon triples. I spent a bit of time looking at carbon triples.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I've heard that MTB deraileurs and maybe cranks also, are not compatible with drop bar brifters.

Happy Feet

Are you asking if brifters designed for road double cranks might have issues with mtb triple cranks?

Squeezebox

That for 1 issue. But with MTB vs road cranksets, derailleurs, shifters working together is a real jumble. I believe I heard that Di2 road shifters will work on XTR derailleurs. Cranksets?? It's a jumble.

nickw

I think you'll find some of the higher end carbon bikes lasting well into the 40-50 + year range, just like steel. Calfee, as an example, has a 25 year warranty on all their carbon frames.

A buddy of mine still trains on a carbon bike from the 90's, faded paint, scratched up, damn near 20 years old....looks cool.

bradtx

A fellow board member used a Cannondale 3.0, an early '90s model, for a trans am so there's a roadie out there than can fit your desires. I've used my '99 Cannondale R1000T for light touring by simply attaching a bag to the aero bar, which was okay for up to ~20 lb. (~9 kg). A handle bar bag and a rear rack that clamps to the seat post are other viable options. Any roadie that fits should work...

Brad

fietsbob

They did XT M730 & XTR M900.. But they keep moving the goalposts, so their engineers have jobs, and make their Boat Payments.

mrv 

i just could not carry one of those long seat wedge things.
i can't imaging rolling into a rural gas station for Pop Tarts, Twinkies, and Gatorade and having that thing sticking up and out my backside. Maybe it's my age. Maybe it's my mind set - whatever.
and I'm not opposed to frame bags (although I don't think I'll ever get my wife to knit me a bike cosey....)

TO the OP: the ULTIMATE touring bike ~ ultimately it's whatever you're touring on.
Use what works for you. Get rid of what doesn't. Is steel working? (so you can magnetically attach a bottle opener? then go for it.) Are you comfortable on carbon? Fine, I am not.
Every time I look at replacing my 1990 RockHopper, I realize it meets about 90% of what I would buy new. So I just keep riding it. (...although the Rivendell Appaloosa really keeps drawing my attention - like sell all my bikes to get!)

BigAura

Faded paint and scratched is fine if that's what you're looking for.

My bicycle frame at 46 years old:



Loaded for touring 1979:



Loaded for touring July 2016:




BTW: That old-steel was a lower-mid-level bike.

Leebo

Does that get you a bigger range than a 64/104 mt triple?

Leebo

Umm, all the long haul truckers will still be in use. Steel has been used for bikes since day one. Hemp?

willibrord

The new builds will trend away from steel. GHG regs will make steel harder to get , and better more environmentally friendly materials will take over, but you are right steel will linger on in older bikes.

Leebo

Ultimate touring bike? That would depend on the tour and the rider. My Karate Monkey was perfect for my tour around Lake Winnipesaukee this summer. Handled road, dirt paths and single track with ease.

nickw

Must be touring on some flat ground with that gearing and no rear brake!

gauvins

I would personally think that the next big change for touring will *not* come from lighter, composite-based frames. Composites are a well known technology which dominates the roadie segment yet is virtually absent from the touring scene. We may argue left and right, but I would think that if composites were a break through for touring applications, we would have seen many already.

E-bikes (hybrids), on the other hand suggest tantalizing applications. I would personally consider something coming down the Vivax lineage, when prices have come down and if they prove efficient at storing some energy produced when riding and restoring it when I struggle uphill.

Tourist in MSN

I am sure that more people will shift to bike packing gear, but I am quite confident that the median will continue to be a bike with racks and panniers.

The bike is the transportation vehicle and the panniers or the bike packing gear is the luggage. Luggage requirements as measured in volume will likely get smaller as more ultralight weight stuff comes out over time. But you won't convince a lot of people that they need to quit carrying a lot of the stuff that they are accustomed to carrying, so volume of luggage will likely not decline enough that four panniers can be replaced with a frame bag, a drybag hanging from the handlebars and an underseat harness for another drybag. Someone that currently carries only two panniers and a handlebar bag might make the switch, but I do not see a lot of the other people out there making the change you propose.

My last tour I used a fairly large Titanium mug for the pasta sauce and only carried one pot. In the photo, I was moving the sauce mug and the noodle pot back and forth every minute or so while trying to keep both warm on a single stove. It worked pretty good but I was traveling solo, the mug might not have worked for two or more. The Titanium mug nested on the outside of the double wall mug that I used for drinking so it was easy to pack

BigAura

My tour was partly on the C&O (easy) and partly off into the Maryland & Pennsylvania hills (challenging sections). Starting at sea-level up to the high point of about 2,400 ft. The gearing was fixed (39x18). I had to push up few hill inclines. I rode down all of them but of course had to continually control my speed. Having only a front brake is really not that big a deal when your gearing is fixed.