It is not chess you don't have to be thinking 5 moves ahead, trust yourself. Don't sweat the little stuff and just take a step at a time. and don't rush it always take the time to look around and take it all in, I think you will do fine.

Generally when people are worrying about weight on the rear wheel, they're talking 30+ lbs. On my mountain bike with crummy geometry for loaded cargo, I run into trouble somewhere in between 45 and 50lbs on the rear wheel... and it doesn't exactly have long chainstays. Taller riders using bikes with similar chainstay lengths have reported that they can move their body weight forward and continue with no problems. (42cm stays on the MTB)

My daily ride has 46cm chainstays, and can handle at least 55-60lbs. At that point the issue is not how much weight can the bike handle, but how much the *rider* can manhandle, since I have to go up steps to get into my apartment building.

Depending on the kind of gear you use, you may find panniers are worth it anyway. I know my sleeping bag maker recommends storing it fluffed up whenever possible.

I carry 8-10 lbs regularly in my trunk bag on most of my long rides and hardly notice it.

I think you're "seriously" overthinking your tour ... it's just 4-5 days on a bicycle in your own neighbourhood. Carry what you want to carry ... it's not like you're going to be on the road for months or anything.

I lived in Lubbock for six years, and I've visited Valley of Fire. First, I think you will likely encounter somewhat of a head wind in that direction. Since you live there, you need no warning about how strong and sustained that wind may be. Travelling west on the high plains in a West Texas summer may well be brutal. Will you be able to still ride if there is a significant dust storm? Bring HUGE amounts of water with you, since riding in 100F at very low humidity with a sustained 25 MPH wind and absolutely no shade is like riding in a blast furnace.

When I visited Valley of Fire in May, the temperature was incredible out on those lava fields. It was at least 15F hotter than out on the high plains, due to all of black lava soaking up sun light. From what I remember when I camped there in March, the campsites do have shelters for shade. However, the 100+ square miles of black lava significantly altered the microclimate. Even in March, on that day the lava was hot. Will it be cool enough at night to actually sleep?

I applaud your hardiness for undertaking this trip at this time of year! Of course, if you have any trouble then numerous drivers will stop to help you out in that part of the country. You could easily get a ride back to Lubbock (with room in the pickup for your bike) if you need it.

I, myelf, would save this interesting trip for late fall/early spring and instead be thinking about the beatiful ride between Cloudcrft and Ruidosa. When I lived in Lubbock, I would sometimes drive out to the higher elevations of NM so that I could just walk in the woods.

re water and expected high ttemps--I personally find that if it is in the high 20s low 30s C (which I guess is in the 80s 90s? F) I regularly go through 1 bike bottle (approx 750 ml) per hour--it sounds like you will be in hotter, drier conditions so if others would chime in with their water usage, these comments from other people experienced touring in hot weather would be a big help to you.

really keep in mind how far it will be until you have access to water (houses, gas stations etc) and then figure out how much water you should have with you. I personally have toured in areas where 2 or 3 bike bottles sufficed, and I was never shy to go up to a house and politely ask to refill my bottles. You may be in areas where you have to go further to refill, so be wary of this.

as I said, running out of water just plain sucks, and if its really hot, you can get into dehydration and heat stroke conditions which really really suck, and could be dangerous.

chime in others, this is something that could be a real help to this fellow to give him a good informed headsup.

cheers

I usually go through less water than that, but I'm prepared for whatever I'll face. I carry at least three water bottles and I always hope I can keep the third one full, just in case I really need it. When I'm climbing in hot weather (upper 30s and hotter) I need a lot of water and three bottles won't be enough. At those times more is better.

I recommend carrying water purification tablets for emergency use, although in dry climates, finding any water source can be a challenge.

If the towns are far apart, then stop in every one and make sure the water bottles are all topped up with fresh water.

water tabs take time for their treatment to take place.
there are so many water filters out there now days.

at the moment I'm using a Platypus micropore gravity filter set up
Sawyer Water Filters makes a great inline filter, that I will probably end up changing to.

another is the Clear2Go water bottle filter.
I have 1 of these. Its just a water bottle cap, with a screw on cartridge filter that is replaceable.
it filters everything

almost no reason to not have a filter with you

at this point I carry it around all the time.
turns tap water into something that tastes better
filters out bugs, etc...

Even though I gave advice to the contrary I am much like to OP always try to be ready for anything and everything that could happen for what ever I am doing. I know it is a bit of a "do as I say, not as I do" thing but I think the OP is ready for the trip and is starting to overthink things, you will do fine, Once you hit the road just enjoy the view and put any worries out of your head, if something happpens fix it and continue on, if you worry too much yo are going to miss the great show mother earth has put out for us there.

The first trip is the hardest. It's hard because there are so many mental and psychological barriers to overcome. It's hard because it's a new experience and it's not the same as riding close to home. It's hard because there's a degree of planning and preparation involved that is not needed for a recreational ride, a commute or a training ride. It's hard because the elements are familiar and foreign at the same time. And it's hard because there is no way to know what to expect before the trip begins.

Planning is the best way to prepare for the trip. There are books, sites, online trip journals and forums to provide plenty of information about cycle touring. But planning is not enough. None of the resources are the same as actually making the trek. No matter how well a person prepares, the first trip is a journey into the unknown. It's true of any bike trip and especially a solo effort.

The first trip is also the most memorable and the most rewarding. The rider who leaves feeling a little apprehensive comes back grinning, full of confidence and ready for the next trip.