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Differences in cycling conditions from WWII to the present

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Differences in cycling conditions from WWII to the present

Old 08-24-07, 12:16 PM
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Just to be clear, I did not choose the scale of the charts either. EXCEL's inner workings chose the scale.
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Old 08-24-07, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by invisiblehand

Larry wrote that people claimed that conditions have changed drastically--for the worse--in the recent past such that his older experiences were irrelevant. One could say that the table is suggests that (nationally) conditions are getting better or at least not getting worse in the recent past.

and where is mr. felton these days?
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Old 08-24-07, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by bmike
and where is mr. felton these days?
I can't help you with that question.
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Old 08-24-07, 12:37 PM
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I don't know, invisible hand, if you DON'T think cycling conditions have worsened since the 1970's, you are living in denial or otherwise belive statistics are the only measurable metric of road conditions and cyclist/driver interactions.

I dispute those statistics you gathered as accurate metrics of road conditions for bicyclists.
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Old 08-24-07, 12:39 PM
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Here are the charts with linear transformations.



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Old 08-24-07, 12:46 PM
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In response to Bek below ...

That is not what I wrote. I don't think that these figures are conclusive regarding driver attention. Even if one thought they were conclusive, there are a lot of dimensions outside of what accidents per mile would address. It is perfectly plausible that driver attention has remained the same since 1990 but that conditions are worse for cyclists since 1970.

Mind you, I have only been (legally) driving since 1988.
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Old 08-24-07, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by bmike
and where is mr. felton these days?
Hopefully enjoying his cycling and far away from his keyboard.
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Old 08-24-07, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Pete Fagerlin
A
Maybe there is some flaw in the way the data is collected but to my layman's eyes it sure looks like the number of motorists on the road has risen and despite the addition of many new distractions the number of cyclists fatalities has declined since "the good ole days."
The flaw is you don't know if the number of cyclists, or their exposure time to interaction with motor vehicle traffic has risen or fallen during that time span.
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Old 08-24-07, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Pete Fagerlin
And if people were less attentive while driving one would expect to see more ped/cyclists deaths.




Bicyclist deaths in motor vehicle crashes 2005: 720 (725 in 2004)

Maybe there is some flaw in the way the data is collected but to my layman's eyes it sure looks like the number of motorists on the road has risen and despite the addition of many new distractions the number of cyclists fatalities has declined since "the good ole days."
Pete, you need to compare that to the actual number of cyclists and peds to have it reflect anything meaningful. Right now it just says the number of deaths went down... but compared to what... number of miles, number of participants or what... it is not normalized in any way. For all I know, the total number dead=the number of participants... and that would be a pretty lousy situation.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics.... "
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Old 08-24-07, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Bekologist
However, larry does allude to something valid in his OP....the basic tenents of bicycling haven't changed much from the 1940's to today. HOWEVER, the road and traffic conditions they get applied on have, in some places dramatically.
JF agrees with you!

Originally Posted by JF PDF of his life story
1972 - 2002
At this point I need to change the format of this history. Over the last three decades of the century, I saw little change in cycling as I knew it, but enormous change in the environment in which cyclists had to operate.


Well, sort of.
In reading it he goes into great detail about a CPSC (and lots of other agencies with acronyms) case dealing with reflectors and pedals and other issues... but hasn't updated the parts on Bicycle Traffic Law Revisions and Bikeway Design and Bike-Planning Standards. Odd that the 'environment' JF alludes to is primarliy legal and theoretical in framework... arguments between manufacturing interests and consumers and not "out there" in the world of streets and cars.
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Old 08-24-07, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Pete Fagerlin
The chart is a summary of NHTSA information. Their data collection methods are described in the underlying documents.

For example, comparing 2004 to 2005:

.1% increase in vehicle miles traveled
2.0% increase in registered vehicles
.9% population increase

Persons involved in motor vehicle crashes 2004 to 2005:

Bicyclists 41,000 (2004) to 45,000 (2005) +9.8%
4,000 more accidents yet only 5 additional fatalities?

Given the reporting methods and the difficulty in capturing data like "their exposure time to interaction with motor vehicle traffic" I would be interested to know how anyone can make a definitive statement one way or another about bicycle safety trends.
In this case, I tend to agree with you... for one reason off road cycling has certainly become a large new trend... accidents there are not usually with motor vehicles (but can be).

The number of cyclists off road may bring the total bike picture up, but what is the number of cyclists facing motor vehicle traffic... awful hard to quantify.
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Old 08-24-07, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by bmike
JF agrees with you!



Well, sort of.
In reading it he goes into great detail about a CPSC (and lots of other agencies with acronyms) case dealing with reflectors and pedals and other issues... but hasn't updated the parts on Bicycle Traffic Law Revisions and Bikeway Design and Bike-Planning Standards. Odd that the 'environment' JF alludes to is primarliy legal and theoretical in framework... arguments between manufacturing interests and consumers and not "out there" in the world of streets and cars.

Wow, huge find... of course JF will allude that he did not mean the "mean streets," but those that propose to govern cycling.
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Old 08-24-07, 05:17 PM
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More traffic please. I quite enjoy the daily commute thru, around, beside, in front of all the trucks and cars. Raise the speed limits too please. 100km/h on city streets, no limit on freeways, country roads and highways
. get rid of ALL on street parking and stopping.

perfect cyclist nirvana
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Old 08-24-07, 05:53 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Guess I wasn't clear. What is the relevance of data about motor vehicle accidents/miles driven to bicycling conditions?
You're right, there's too much generalization to narrow it down to bicycling conditions.

...unless bicycling conditions have something to do with motorist "accidents..."

All these damn graphs. As you once said, I-Like-To-Bike, "it aint rocket science." Where I live, driving sight-lines are much better, lanes are wider, pavement smoother and better-maintained, cars generally smaller and lighter-weighted (except for the ill-fated entrance of the Hugh Jass SUV, which will go the way of all gas-guzzlers.)

I support cyclists who don't want to mix with traffic. It's their choice!

But not everyone thinks riding on the road with traffic without bicycle facilities is stressful, dangerous, or unpleasant, most of the time. Why war against it?

The roads give those of us who prefer them the best way to compete with motoring for transportation, especially in this far-flung, motorist-oriented culture.

In places where the roads offer a poor option, we cyclists need to advocate for other cyclists to remedy our plight, even if it means crossing religious cycling ideologies, whether pro- or anti-VC.
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Old 08-24-07, 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Bekologist
I don't know, invisible hand, if you DON'T think cycling conditions have worsened since the 1970's, you are living in denial or otherwise belive statistics are the only measurable metric of road conditions and cyclist/driver interactions.

I dispute those statistics you gathered as accurate metrics of road conditions for bicyclists.
Regarding the tables, just one more idea to add ...

I don't think that the world has changed so much that old experiences and studies are worthless. And I do think that fundamentally, people are very similar to their counterparts 20, 30, and 40 years ago. I don't know what is driving the results; but some of the stories described earlier (by me too) just don't appear in the tables. Perhaps if there we an urban/suburban/rural breakdown we could see something then. But as other posters have implied, the data is unable to support many strong statements in either direction.

I believe that the cycling environment is changing and certain environments are more foreboding than others. For instance, I have been trying to find a reasonable non-MUP route past the beltway for a while without any success for the past two or three months. I have also been trying to find an alternative to the WOD (45 mile MUP) without any success. We also know that the type of neighborhoods people live in have been changing over the last 50 years. I can say from a few months experience out here that unless one wants to travel some high pressure roads or take extremely circuitous routes, using a bicycle for transportation or "serious" recreation would be difficult. These "hard to travel" neighborhoods, of course, have been developed in the 70s onwards which might explain why certain people traveling in older suburban neighborhoods have not seen many changes (Arlington is fairly easy to bike ... Fairfax is a lot more work) whereas people living in new neighborhoods or the dense downtown districts may have more complaints.
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Old 08-24-07, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Pete Fagerlin

Given the reporting methods and the difficulty in capturing data like "their exposure time to interaction with motor vehicle traffic" I would be interested to know how anyone can make a definitive statement one way or another about bicycle safety trends.
It's easy; self proclaimed "experts" do it all the time. Of course definitive statements and conclusions drawn from such irrelevant data and/or useless analysis are no better than wild donkey guesses.
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Old 08-24-07, 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Pete Fagerlin
Given the reporting methods and the difficulty in capturing data like "their exposure time to interaction with motor vehicle traffic" I would be interested to know how anyone can make a definitive statement one way or another about bicycle safety trends.
Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
It's easy; self proclaimed "experts" do it all the time. Of course definitive statements and conclusions drawn from such irrelevant data and/or useless analysis are no better than wild donkey guesses.
Pete would be interested to know how anyone can make a definitive statement one way or the other about bicycle safety trends, and I-Like-To-Bike adds that it's no better than wild donkey guesses.

In other words, "...nobody knows anything."

Hmm....
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Old 08-25-07, 05:41 AM
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Originally Posted by LittleBigMan
Pete would be interested to know how anyone can make a definitive statement one way or the other about bicycle safety trends, and I-Like-To-Bike adds that it's no better than wild donkey guesses.

In other words, "...nobody knows anything."

Hmm....
Not quite right. People might know the trends of total numbers of "accidents" with motor vehicles. Conclusions and definitive statements drawn from those raw numbers without any associated data about numbers of cyclists and their exposure to motor vehicle traffic, are know-nothing conclusions/definitive statements.
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Old 08-25-07, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Pete Fagerlin
...

Given the reporting methods and the difficulty in capturing data like "their exposure time to interaction with motor vehicle traffic" I would be interested to know how anyone can make a definitive statement one way or another about bicycle safety trends.
Yeah, grains of salt, grains of salt.

I sometimes think about the fatality numbers, which is admittedly lame. If anyone really cares about this they should know that these numbers appear to be going up again, for the past few years (final count on 2006 is not yet available), so any proclamations of a continued downward trend are premature. But what you say is true -- nobody can really make any definitive statements about bicycle safety trends with these statistics anyway, because available numbers on total numbers of cyclists, miles traveled, hours ridden, etc. are so spotty, so wildly divergent, in some instances so downright ridiculous that the whole business is a non-starter.

That said, there is some important info that is available from which we can make some more educated guesses about what might be goin on. For instance, we can see that the ratio of kids to adults among victims dropped dramatically as the fatality numbers fell. (1-in-3 in '98 to 1-in-5 in '04 (DOT), while number of adult victims was fairly steady.) Perhaps what we are seeing is simply a change in culture, with kids not riding bikes as much as they used to.

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Old 08-25-07, 02:37 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
It's easy; self proclaimed "experts" do it all the time.


Happens in DC all of the time.

Although I believe we are far from clueless. We can make educated guesses that fit our observations and proceed from that point. But it is important to realize that there is a good deal of uncertainty, that any program pursued should be regularly evaluated, and that some experimentation is justified.
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Old 08-25-07, 07:54 PM
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Originally Posted by bmike
JF agrees with you!



Well, sort of.
In reading it he goes into great detail about a CPSC (and lots of other agencies with acronyms) case dealing with reflectors and pedals and other issues... but hasn't updated the parts on Bicycle Traffic Law Revisions and Bikeway Design and Bike-Planning Standards. Odd that the 'environment' JF alludes to is primarliy legal and theoretical in framework... arguments between manufacturing interests and consumers and not "out there" in the world of streets and cars.
Thank you very much for reminding me that I needed to complete that article.

It really isn't odd that when I discuss changes in the cycling environment over the last thirty years I am referring to specific actions of government. Operating on the road hasn't changed much in that time (except that the traffic smell has been much reduced by the actions of both government and industry), but the actions of government have been attempts to impose on competent adult cyclists the operating principles and the equipment that government heretofore felt appropriate for incompetent child cyclists using "toys or other articles intended for use by children", in the words of the authorizing law. The last thirty years have been a story of government, motivated by ignorance of cycling and intention to do the work of motorists while humoring the anti-motoring activists, has produced a program for bicycle transportation that is utterly incoherent. How many of you will understand this?
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Old 08-25-07, 08:07 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
Not quite right. People might know the trends of total numbers of "accidents" with motor vehicles. Conclusions and definitive statements drawn from those raw numbers without any associated data about numbers of cyclists and their exposure to motor vehicle traffic, are know-nothing conclusions/definitive statements.
Let's all quit riding our bikes and sit on the couch watching the Tour de France.

The rest of you can live in fear.

I'm just going to live.

I'm sick of the fearmongering. Go on with it, y'all. Find every excuse not to enjoy life, to avoid riding your bike.

But I don't need "rocket science" to explain the last decade of pure pleasure (and lovely pain) cycling to work has given me. I ride with traffic, I don't wait until some nanny somewhere gives me a special sidewalk to ride on.

No offense to those of you who want that, but life's too short to wait for perfect circumstances, in my case. Ain't no time for that.

But if you guys want to continue to raise the specter of fear to give cyclists more reasons not to ride on normal roads, you're on the opposite side of my ideology.

Use your graphs. Argue the danger.

I'll be out riding.

(Please continue with your enlightening discussions about how many cyclists can dance on the head of a pin.)
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Old 08-25-07, 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted by LittleBigMan
Let's all quit riding our bikes and sit on the couch watching the Tour de France.

The rest of you can live in fear.

I'm just going to live.

I'm sick of the fearmongering. Go on with it, y'all. Find every excuse not to enjoy life, to avoid riding your bike.
WTF are you bellyaching about my post on this thread? We are discussing if data about motor vehicle accidents has any relevance to bicycling conditions or if even various statements (positive or negative) bandied about bicycling safety have any credence at all. The fearmongoring is all in your head or you are thinking about some other posts.
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Old 08-25-07, 09:36 PM
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike
WTF are you bellyaching about my post on this thread? We are discussing if data about motor vehicle accidents has any relevance to bicycling conditions or if even various statements (positive or negative) bandied about bicycling safety have any credence at all. The fearmongoring is all in your head or you are thinking about some other posts.
Yes, I've got a belly-full, allright.

I support your own specific cycling needs/preferences. But you are arguing about numbers and graphs.

Don't have time for that, man. Have at it.

Been there done that too. Bottom line is, either you are going to ride, or not. Make your own reasons for/against where you ride.

I-Like-To-Bike, you're the one bellyaching about Forester, so much so that you've lost perspective.

You gonna ride and encourage others to do so, or wage internet war?
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Old 08-25-07, 11:06 PM
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VC sez -

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Nothing's changed since jhon rode the PCH in 1948, and if it has, I'm still golden!!!!"
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