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Winter 2019-20 forecast

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Winter 2019-20 forecast

Old 10-17-19, 01:28 PM
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rumrunn6
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Winter 2019-20 forecast

hmmm ... I thought last year was easy, didn't have to rake my roof once! & rode on studded tires even tho there wasn't much ice!

It looks like this winter could be a bit milder than usual, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Winter Outlook unveiled Thursday.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are likely across much of the U.S. this winter, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Winter Outlook for December through February.

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Old 10-17-19, 04:15 PM
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I tend not to take these forecasts too seriously. I figure these guys are probably right about 50% of the time anyway.
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Old 10-17-19, 04:36 PM
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Last year in My Fair City we broke records for snowfall and it got chilly...odd part was the episodic nature of it, which was demoralizing for staying riding outside.

One week of 60s-70s....then 2-3 weeks of sub-freezing and snow/ice....that then melts....rinse/repeat. That week of mild weather broke the conditioning to ride outside.
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Old 10-18-19, 08:49 AM
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While I have some respect for people who're willing to stick their neck out and make predictions like NOAA, my observations of wooly worms indicate it's going to be a cold winter. Appalachian State University had (maybe still has?) a center where they tracked wooly worm predictions. IIRC, the blacker the wooly worms, the harder the winter was to be; more reddish-brown coloration indicated a milder winter to come. The ones I saw on the road here last weekend were solid black.
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Old 10-18-19, 12:32 PM
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Originally Posted by pdlamb View Post
While I have some respect for people who're willing to stick their neck out and make predictions like NOAA, my observations of wooly worms indicate it's going to be a cold winter. Appalachian State University had (maybe still has?) a center where they tracked wooly worm predictions. IIRC, the blacker the wooly worms, the harder the winter was to be; more reddish-brown coloration indicated a milder winter to come. The ones I saw on the road here last weekend were solid black.
I nearly ran over a wooly last week that was entirely black. We're Fncked!

I wonder if the color used for the prediction map above is just coincidently similarly to the wooly worm???

Dan
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Old 10-18-19, 02:44 PM
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if you're not riding tomorrow you'd better have a good reason, not far from me will be amazing

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Old 10-22-19, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted by _ForceD_ View Post
I nearly ran over a wooly last week that was entirely black. We're Fncked!

I wonder if the color used for the prediction map above is just coincidently similarly to the wooly worm???

Dan
The map shoes my area to be warmer than normal. While I did see a black wooley the previous 2 were a bright green.
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Old 10-26-19, 04:16 AM
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I’m fine with a warmish winter.
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Old 10-26-19, 11:03 AM
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For me, it's not so much temperature as it is snow. When large amounts fall and it get's pushed to the side of the road, which be the way, is where I ride, things get sketchy. Actually, February of last year was when I started driving, because of too much snow on the road.
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Old 11-03-19, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by pdlamb View Post
While I have some respect for people who're willing to stick their neck out and make predictions like NOAA, my observations of wooly worms indicate it's going to be a cold winter. Appalachian State University had (maybe still has?) a center where they tracked wooly worm predictions. IIRC, the blacker the wooly worms, the harder the winter was to be; more reddish-brown coloration indicated a milder winter to come. The ones I saw on the road here last weekend were solid black.
well here in the NE we've got these
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