jyl

Ugh. No fashion sense at all.

Leinster

There'll be nothing more for the sprinters at the Dauphine. That's why the real sprinters are all doing Swiss instead; Cav, Sagan, Degenkolb and Kristoff are all riding there, there's only one REAL mountain stage, (with a few lumpy ones) and 43kms of ITT.

jeirvine 

TdF is supposed to be a hot one this year. Who's best in the heat? The Kenyan? Columbian? Spaniard?

Leinster

Remember, the Kenyan's parents moved there from Gloucestershire, meaning he's more genetically predisposed to spending his summers playing cricket.

KingCat

Lets be honest, if everyone in the TDF was clean, Lance Armstrong would have as good a chance as anyone.

Caretaker

The guy wearing the yellow jersey when they reach Paris.

WCroadie

What does that have to do with who will win this year? And who said it was clean?

JmanEspresso

Personally Im wanting to see Contador take the win, but realistically, Id say its anyones game between Nibali, Froome, Contador. Couple other guys in there will definitely challenge them, but, again personally, I think those are the riders who have the best chance of taking it. Last year was crazy. Cav out day 1, Froome out stage 6(right?), and then contador is out later on.. I was surprised to see so many big name riders crash out.

Laggard

Lance

Caretaker

I hope Contador, Froome, Nibali and Quintana are within a minute of each other on the penultimate stage. Watching them fight it out on the Alpe d'Huez with the crowds and all would be incredible. Even if two of them are close on GC would make it great.

patrickgm60

Glad to see the TTT is back, this year. Can BMC (and TVG) gain time on the others, ala Dauhpine?

b_t

I am rooting for Contador, but I think his chances are not that good. My guess is 1. Froome, 2. Quintana, 3. Contador, 4. Nibali.

Froome has a very deep team supporting him, and their strategies are obviously well thought out and rehearsed. Contador on the other hand has a pompous jerk running his team, and it's hard for me to envision much chemistry on a Tinkoff team.

jyl

Over at the Ster ZLM Toer, Griepel has been tearing up the sprints - every stage bar the prologue was a bunch sprint - while Kittel has finished every stage at the back. The second stage he was caught behind a split in the peloton, but in the remaining stages the peloton seems to have finished in a big bunch and still Kittel has finished almost all the way at the rear. Anyone watch this race?. What's going on with Kittel? Seemed like he was getting his condition back, but this race didn't show it.

RJM

I would like to see Contador win it...and if not Quintana.

Giacomo 1 

I'd like to see that to, and it can certainly happen, but one stage won't be enough for him to steal a win. I can't help but feel that TJ is still a half-a-step behind the big 4 of Froome, Contador, Nibali and Quintana. And I don't hear any of the pundits talking him up to take the yellow, although that could be a good thing if the big 4 forget about him and he can exploit that. He appears to be confident and in good form though, so who knows?

I'll be rooting for him!

sprince

Looking at the first week, Movistar would be well advised to have a plan B. Between the opening TT and the cobbles, Quintana could find himself nearly out of contention going into week two. I can easily see Valverde ending up on the podium. Froome also has a less than exemplary track record with stages like [pick any stage in the first week].

My picks: Contador, Nibali, Valverde.

Giacomo 1 

Valverde is a good pick.

He is having a great season, and is nearly always in the hunt no matter what race he is in. Tactically speaking, he might be the smartest and shrewdest rider in the peloton. He's a better all-arounder than the others, and is far more durable than the fragile Froome and small Quintana. He'll survive and likely do pretty well that first week in the crazy fast flat stages, the cobbles and the TT. I also think on a good day, with good support, he can climb with those guys.

Yup, you convinced me!

Panza

Contador is going to be well rested for the TdF because he'll be sleeping in hotels as he does usually on tours. Froome will be unable to stay in his palace Motor RV Home which will make him feel like a mere muggle. He will function at a fraction of his ego due to this fact and take 3rd place to Contador (and Greipel 2nd go Lotto!). He will return to his queen who will take away all hopes of Knighthood and be banished to Scotland.


Fabio Nibali and Vangarden will follow shortly

Quintana will have velcro strapped his shoes to his pedals this year but will be outshined by Valverde who will still come in 8th place.

Sprint finish will be Cavendish and Peter Sagan (my favorite professional rider) will come second to him stage after stage (again like in the Tour of California) but will take points victory or some other jersey out of thin air, probably the polka dotted jersey.

BigOrangeWave

I'll take Quintana because of all the mountains, I think Froome and Contador look at each other while Quintana slips away. FWIW Valverde is 0 for 7 in Tours on making the podium...and he is now 35. I would be suprised if he is even in the top 5, much less on the podium.

For those of you who maybe aren't sure about the contenders, I came across a pretty good breakdown here: https://the5thq.wordpress.com/2015/0...sey-breakdown/
Only thing that is missing are teammates like Aru, Landa, Kreuziger, Valverde.

I'll still take Sagan for green followed by Kristoff and Cav. Same site also has a pretty decent green jersey preview: https://the5thq.wordpress.com/2015/0...sey-breakdown/

Harristonian

Going to be utterly fascinating. I don't see a race between the GC contenders but more how their teams are able to support their leaders so for e.g. what kind of form will Richie Porte be in to support CF in the hills? and for that matter Geraint Thomas who's been stellar during the spring.

I think the winner will come from the two strongest teams, irrespective of the leaders ability / form.

Prediction: I have a favourite, but I don't actually care. Just don't turn into F1 and lets see attacking riding.

The Giro was so good to watch, I really hope that the tactics are the same.

jyl

I'm thinking this will be one of the best TdFs in recent years. Reasons:
- Not much ITT.
- Scary, windy, cobbly, Mur-y early stages. So happy to see the Tour move away from a first week of processions through the north and west of France.
- Lots of very worthy contendors. To start with, we have four top contenders, not three like last year. And the second tier contenders are more credible, with two having stood on the podium last year. So even if we lose a couple to the first week, we should still have a full quorum for a race.
- The Double.
- The Back-To-Back.
- The Colombian.
- The Frenchie(s).
- The American.
- The Guy Who Has To Sleep In A Hotel.
- We could see a new generation of sprinters challenge the reigning trio of Kittel Cav Griepel.
-

79pmooney

I just read a great article on Quintana, but mostly about his qualities as a good citizen. Nairo Quintana: On equal gender-rights and winning the Tour de France | Cyclingnews.com. I hope to see him do big things on a bike.

That said, I'm rooting for Contador and I think he will pull it off. He wants this. He wants this probably more than anything he has ever gone after before. He has been denied several GT wins and been prevented from starting several more. He knows that those wins would put him with the very few. He doesn't have many years left. But a Giro-Tour puts him up there with the few. He's keeping his mouth shut, but I think we are going to see him step up big time.

His biggest challenge in my view will be Quintana. Quintana is very strong, smart and, has done a lot of work to improve TT and cobble riding. I think Contador will beat him with his experience and race smarts. I think the TTT will be to Contador's advantage because both he is stronger and may help with Saxo-Tinkoff's speed whereas Quintana may have trouble staying on the Movistar train. There is a good chance Froome will have a bad day at some point, especially that first week. (For Froome, a bad day isn't the classic "sans jour", ie no legs, but a day with a crash, wet cobbles or some other misfortune that cannot be dealt with studying a power meter.) And quite possibly, lack of team support a a key time - like last year's early stage when he had no teammate to take the crash he took instead and at the Giro when team leader Porte twice had mechanicals without teammate support. That first week may well see some classics-style racing tactics, a place where Sky/Braillesford (sp) are out of their element,.

I'll guess a rider like Valverde or Pinot (I'm hoping for a French rider) will round out the Podium.

Ben

Leinster

Kittel out.

Marcel Kittel to miss Tour de France - Cycling Weekly

Now, if we'd had this news back in April, I would've said "Degenkolb for the green jersey, mark it down, now." But JD was an also-ran at the Tour de Suisse (where Kristoff and Cav both started slow, but turned up late on), and Sagan is coming into form with a vengeance (and a new Venge) and a point to prove, so I'm not so sure.


The yellow and green are going to be 2 very open competitions this year.

sprince

The modified green jersey scoring will supposedly make it more competitive [allow someone other than Sagan to have a chance]. But I don't see it making much difference. Kristoff (who won 2 stages and can hardly be called inconsistent) was second last year by a margin of 149 points. I say Sagan again by a smaller margin, maybe just squeaking by with a 100 point lead.

jyl

Kittel's comments after ZLM sounded rather desperate, about how managing to finish each stage showed his good fitness.

Degenkolb will have the entire Giant-Alpecin team backing him, but on the kind of stage where he excels (climby sprints), how many of his teammates will be able to keep up? I can see Giant (and Katusha, and Lotto) pegging back breakaways, but in the final kms the climby sprinters will be mano-a-mano. Granted Cavendish won't be a factor on those stages, but Kristhoff and Griepel and Sagan can sprint up hills very well. And Coquard and maybe Bouhanni too? Sagan won't get much team support, granted he never got much at Cannondale.

I think it is possible that the climby sprints get divided amongst the climby sprinters and/or breakaways, while Cavendish wins enough of the flat bunch sprints to get the green jersey.

Just quickly scanning the stages, I see:
- Flat bunch sprints (4): 2 7 15 21. These seem best for the pure sprinters. Unless they get caught out by cross-winds.
- Cobbles (1): 4.
- Lumpy breakaways or climby sprints (7): 3 5 6 8 13 16 18. I didn't study closely enough to guess which is which.
- Climbers showdowns (7): 10 11 12 14 17 19 20. Most of all of these are MTFs.
- TT (2): 1 9. The ITT is only 14 km. The TTT is only 28 km. Not sure how much time a good ITTer or a good TTT team can gain over mediocre ones?