ColaJacket

I'm waiting for transparent aluminum.

GH

transporterjr

I'll give you a pass if you reduce and recycle every plastic bottle from here on out

lkngro

Carbon fiber will fall out of favor as top dog when something better comes along. There was a time when aluminum race bikes were the latest and greatest. Steel, aluminum, and carbon bikes will still be made as long as bikes are a thing, but the next material will come along and surpass them all, then another, then another. I don't think they'll ever go away, but there will be something better. Did you see the other thread about the 3D printed titanium bike? Something, maybe not titanium, could come up from advancements that are made it that field though.

My guess is that the next one will come from the plastics world. New polymers are constantly being discovered, so I don't think it's unreasonable to assume one could be lighter, stronger, etc. than carbon.

flr

This is a bit off-topic: As the size of solid-state-memory increases I would expect an end of mp3 format (and any format that compresses music with the loss of data) in favor of lose-less formats such as FLAC, even for portable digital players.
Of course, I can't imagine a resurgence of any analog format.

OldsCOOL

When? Hmmmm. That's a tough one. How about, when Schwinn Varsity is the team bike of choice on the Tour de France.

As long as lightweight is favorable, CF will rule.

kbarch

Seems my suspicion that I could phrase my response better was correct.

I wasn't questioning the intelligence of anyone. The point is, I think within about ten years the suggestion that CF is popular because it is the latest and greatest will be ridiculous because by then no one will think it is new anymore.

I wasn't necessarily denying that it rules on merit - actually tried to set that issue aside and merely point out that it happens to have the advantage of being "latest and greatest," an advantage that I'm guessing will fade away in about ten years.

cale

Oh yeah, there's no recycling scheme that we Seattleites won't embrace.We love all forms of cycling. Bicycling, recycling, and potcycling. Haha

bmthom.gis

Plenty of companies out there...Moots, Independent Fabrications, Waterford, and Rivendell easily come to mind.

I really like my CF bike, but am pretty sure that it will be my one amd only. I enjoy the feel of steel

rpenmanparker 

CF has many iterations of change in front of it to keep it latest and greatest for a very long time to come.

rebel1916

When will the safety bicycle fall out of favor? I think real riders will return to a proper penny farthing before too long.

StanSeven

I don't see CF losing ground at all in ten years. It's been steadily increasing over the past twenty years. Frames keep getting better and lighter and there's nomend in sight.

Take a look at Colnago for example. They are as traditional as companies go and look how their line changed over the past ten years.

Dave Cutter

And neither can I. But the original audio format (actual live music) has retained a great level of popularity. Even though "live music" is only a fraction of the music enjoyed each day.

Bicyclists are sort of like this. We enjoy one of the earliest "machines" made for personal travel. We are a fraction of the population. And even in our tiny numbers we divide ourselves in to groups and sub-groups. I am not just a cyclist... but a road cyclist... a recreational road cyclist that rides roads, urban areas, and MUPs. I ride modern bikes and I wear a kit.

But I like steel bikes too! I wonder what the numbers are. I wonder how many of us there are. Steel may never revive in great numbers. We will likely be more like the Penny-farthing cyclists. Small numbers that enjoy both the novelty and history of a by-gone era.

But when carbon fiber is replaced with a better plastic (or whatever).... those carbon bikes will quickly fade from use... and memory.

cale

Live music is an audio format? Is it possible that ANY audio format would exist without live sound? So, live music is a special, all unto itself, "format". Sort of the prime format.

Now, I don't mean to parse analogies but I don't think bicycling is a prime format. Bicycling is firmly in the category of sport and as such shares the family budget with skiing, water sports, hiking, sailing, and any number of other outdoor activities. It isn't surprising that we cyclists feel special. Everyone wants to think of themselves as special, at least I do. But we are really just a subset of a bigger phenomenon of the abundance of recreational time and opportunities for all people. Whether you ride carbon, steel, or bamboo, you're a cyclist. Drawing distinctions is a bit like classifying eyelashes on bumble bees. You know, these ones have bushy eyelashes, these have long ...

PaulRivers

"serious" riders are never going back. If cost is not an issue, carbon fiber is simply better than those other materials.

As other posters said, the only way it would disappear is if it turned out to have some sort of serious safety problem (like asbestos) or a new magic material comes along and replaces it. Carbon fiber is here to stay, and superior to the other materials (except for cost).

gioscinelli 

Graphene bicycles - the potential future of composites, no more CF!

Graphene bicycles - the potential future of composites - BikeRadar USA

hueyhoolihan

^ interesting article.

Bob Dopolina 

This.

K.Katso

beat me to it

kbarch

No doubt. But by the same token, steel has greatly improved over the years since iron surpassed bronze as the metal of choice for most practical applications, and it continues to improve even in this age, but it lost its cachet for being 'modern' long before CF or aluminum became options.

Metal bicycle frames may not regain any ground, so to speak, but I don't think they'll stick around merely to appease nostalgic types and finicky velophiles. It may not have ever been used in bicycle frames, but again consider bronze, which is still widely used on the basis of certain practical and aesthetic merits, not because a handful of people are bronze-age retro-grouches; nobody is THAT old

indyfabz

It will take years to decode the matrix.

tommyblair22

I think 3d printing could potentially drastically reduce the cost and open up new titanium frame design. Once printers are more ubiquitous you could see a shop that you punch in the qualities you look for and your dimensions into a kiosk and a bike pops out in an hour or so. Presto! Custom bike!

indyfabz

Recently had a custom ti frame built by a sole builder here in Phily. It's on it's way back from the painter. May get to finally ride it this weekend. My steel IF will become by B bike. I have never once ridden a CF bike and I cannot see one in my future.

sced

Aluminum is much better than the BF weenies without engineering degrees think. Because of their formability, high strength alloys can compete directly with CF in all respects except weight, where it is only slightly disadvantaged. It kicks CF's derriere in the manufacturing (not retail) cost department and likely always will. All the mumbo jumbo about it being buzzy and too stiff derives from dumb designs by bike industry people that don't understand how to use the material's advantages. Even today the very demanding aerospace industry uses aluminum for most structural components. Steel and Ti are fine, but really can't compete in terms of the freedom allowed to designers. IHMO the only reason that people look down on aluminum is that it's relatively cheap and to them it means that it can't be good.

CliffordK

I don't think graphene will do anything for the bike industry. That would give you awfully thin tubing for your bike.

However, eventually there will be the ability to produce long-chain carbon nanotubes. And, perhaps there will be lighter binding resins for the CF bikes, or an ability to make frames without resins. Like a single molecule bike frame.

I don't see CF going away on the racing scene any time soon. However, the non-racers may eventually get tired of a small dent causing entire frames to be discarded. Only time will tell how well the new frames will last for a few decades.

bmthom.gis

I look down on aluminum road bikes because I have owned aluminum, carbon, and steel bikes and the al was by far my least favorite in terms of ride quality.