Well, it worked last week. Tracking calories (Range of 2500-2800 S-W (was waaay too high), 2100-2500 W-F) and riding 16 miles/day commuting in the brutal cold has paid off. Today's weigh in was at 385.25, a solid 8.25 pound loss for the week.
My average calories were 2581/day, which I think is way too high - this week I'm dumping my range down to 2000-2300 to see how it goes. Only problem is, of course, it's cold and my body thinks it needs to be a big fat hibernating bear. After every ride the past couple days where it's been in the 20s or lower, it seems I'm absolutely starving.