One more comment, for now, to show that I did not just abandon the discussion.
I have reached the conclusion that the original analysis is pretty much correct. I apologize again for being slow on the uptake.
The model still operates in a way that is contrary to my expectations, and I am not entirely convinced that there is not something wrong. My next few days are very busy so I will not have much to mull, but I need to go through some more details in order to convince myself that the model is correct. This will probably just show that my intuition is incorrect. I will check back in in a few days.
And again, it is a cool program.