Thanks for the feedback. I think the bolt-on cog seems at least as strong as a conventional cog + lockring setup, with a much lower chance of stripping threads. My main concern now is the chain tension. According to the calculator I used, this combo is about 2.8mm shorter than I need. It seems like this would just mean tight tension, quick chain stretch, and short chain life (which is a given). A 14t cog would only be 0.01mm long, but there is no 14t bolt-on cog (a 15t already requires careful bolt head design to prevent rubbing on the chain).

Do you think the 5mm of stretch I am going to need is realistic from a 46 link chain is realistic (as in will I be able to get it on, not will it wear out fast)?

After a little more Googling, a 36-16 would be an almost perfect fit with a half link installed (but down to 59 GI). Then again, since chains stretch, I'm not sure if I'm better off with something that fits perfectly from the start or something that will need a little stretch to fit. Any idea which is going to last longer? I would prefer the 36-15, but I am not going to be happy if I spend $40 on a cog and I can't get the wheel into the dropout.


EDIT: Math I am currently using: If my chain is 46 links (46 inches), and acceptable chain wear is up to 1/16 of an inch (per Sheldon Brown), my chain "stretched" will be 6.09mm longer, which is just slightly over the chain length I would need. Now the question is whether doing a good chain life's worth of wear in fifteen minutes is a good idea.