"People who succeed, do so by making a lifestyle change, that can be getting back on a bicycle, after years of sitting in the car."
I don't think we're that far apart in our thinking. However, the part about getting back on the bicycle is where our thoughts diverge.
Riding a bike will make someone hungry. Just enough hungry to want to eat back the energy lost. If it's a long ride, that person will be very hungry. Put back less energy, and weight, at least for a while, will come off. But that means the same result could be had by skipping the bike ride and doing exactly the same thing: eating a little less food.
Exercising, therefore, as counterintuitive as it seems, won't help us lose weight. It just makes us hungrier. Of course, there are benefits to being in shape (one of which is I'll probably be able to finish the Solvang Century tomorrow).
As for some science, I enjoyed reading Good Calories, Bad Calories, by Gary Taubes. He presents a lot of evidence, and his bibliography stretches for many, many pages.
His own conclusion, which I find persuasive, is that we have to be careful about the foods we eat, in particular sweets and starches.
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