Really? Last year (in the 3's). A team (feedback) put some guys on the front and they destroyed themselves, essentially giving a 15 mile leadout to their protected rider (NL), who eventually won. Anybody who wanted to do well needed to hang onto the lead group until the lake, and then figure out how much they had left. I think given Bathat's previous comments, he should be strong enough to not get dropped for at least the first half of the race.

Badhat, I think you misunderstood my comment. I was simply stating that a lot of the 1-day licenses belonged to pro MTBers, and not some group of riders who spent their entire year training for 1 race (who does that?!). I think that given your relative lack of training last year, and your dedication to the method this year, that your goal is very attainable. Great strides in fitness can be made at the beginning, and cutting 10 (or more) minutes off your time is not at all unreasonable. Of course don't expect that sort of gain again next year, which is where the discouraging comments are coming from. Most of these guys have already been training for a while, so that sort of fitness gain has already happened, and from now on progression is a lot slower than it was at the beginning.