Originally Posted by
Aero Sapien
Hmm...
Do you think looking at the stage-by-stage results of the Tour de France, one could predict a riders performance on a stage given a riders previous stage or something? I don't exactly know the dynamics of pro stage racing, but are there days where riders purposely take the day off and do the bare minimum to complete a days work so that they can win a future stage, or does everyone go max effort every day?
The stage by stage results of the tour are readily available..if one could make a model to predict a stage's results given previous stage history, that would be interesting I think
EDIT: I would definitely love to watch crits or something and gather the data about sprints, break aways, etc, but that's way too much work for one individual =/
Yes, but it won't show in the stats!
When riders do this they may be different kinds of riders and do it differently. The most common would be the sprinters. Any mountian stage their goal is to survive with hte least work. But that does not mean just going easy, too slow and they are eliminated. Generally all the sprinters end up in one huge pack off the back. The exceptions are in stages with moderate mountians where guys who are not pure sprinters may try to stay with the lead pack and if it stays togeather they may be the best sprinter left.
Anyone who is a GC contender never takes a day off, or is it always takes the day off when it is flat? They can not afford to lose time to other GC contenders. No easy day if any other contender is off the front.
Pure climbers may take a day off to a degree to be fresh for the next day. But that just means finishing in the main group. On a flat stage that is pretty much always the case. In the mountians it can mean they were resting, it can mean they tried early and then did not have the gas later, or it can mean they are tired or sick.
There are several huge problems with statistics in a major tour. Except for a handfull of riders in contention for the green jersey placing at the finish does not matter. Official time matters more, and everyone in a group gets the same time. For teams with a GC contender the first goal of at at least all but one or 2 of the other riders is the GC riders placing, not their own placing. For teams with a sprinter the same kind of dedication often takes over. (But if the team has only a sprinter then other riders may be free to seek their own good on stages that may not have a sprint finish).
There might be something to find on how often a break stays away, but even there it is not simple. A lot depends on if the other teams care. In today's huge peloton if the other teams all want to chase a break will fail. Success depends more on willingness to chase than legs. There MIGHT be something to be found on how often breaks succede in a tour based on the final 30 miles of the day and the next days stage. But I doubt there are enough datapoints to showanything with mathematical rigour.
Here is a grain of hope for you. Most years the TDF has 3 individual time trials. First the prologue, very short, then later 2 others. Often one much longer than the other. Perhaps you could find something there. At least yuo have numbers to start with. I'd go for comparing to a particular placing, I'm thinking 5th place. Why? Because you see distortion in hte top places, especially in the first and last time trials. In the prologue there are actually specialists who seek just that stage win and then afterwards to hold the yellow for as long as possible. The last time trial is almost always the last chance ot make up time. That means the leaders are all concerend about gaining or losing time, not in general but in chunks that are enough to change placing that day. This means very often the tour leader is simply matching the second place rider.