My daughter belongs to a MTB club at college. Last year the club was out clearing trails, and some local kids stole one of the members' bikes. It was a really expensive Trek, and he was able to get an insurance settlement to buy a new one. The following semester the club was out on a ride and they found the stolen bike--hidden under some brush. Apparently the kid who stole it didn't want his parents to see the bike, so he kept it stashed in the woods. So now my dauther's friend has two nice MTB.

The moral of the story as it applies to your situation: Unlike professional theives, kids are unpredictible and subject to different pressures, so there's a good chance, it seems to me, that it will turn up eventually.