I *have* to sit in until the finish. Doing a steady 22-23 mph in a break isn't going to get me anywhere, and sitting on a break is not really very nice (but that's the only way I can stay in a semi-strong group). Tuesday I made it onto the back of a group, they rotated until I was second wheel, the guy in front of me looked back, saw me, and must have started salivating. He jumped and I couldn't stay on his wheel - he had ramped it up until I was way into the red, then he attacked. Beautiful (for him).
This year I've had my best successes when, for whatever reason, I've avoided moving up until the very end. New London - hill killed me, almost came off for 10 laps, then hung on grimly for the next 20. Realized I couldn't move up and maintain position so I waited until about 2 to go to start moving up. Moved up hard at 1 to go, then just before last turn, and got 5th. Nutmeg State Games - wet turns were scary, I sat at the back for everyone's safety, moved up between 1/2 and 1/4 lap to go. Led out sprint but in an uncertain way, got 3rd. Mystic Velo - moved up for real with 2 turns to go. 2nd.
It's nice if you can do epic breaks. I wish I could. But it's not something I can do. If I were that strong, I'd try for moves. I wish in my best year that I stuck with one attack in particular - after 2 laps solo in a huge Cat 3 race I was about 13-14 seconds off the front and feeling pretty good. I had Scott Rakes and felt fluently comfortable on them - I could average about 25 in headwinds and 30-ish on the tailwind stretches. I thought about the 6 laps to the finish, the hungry sprinters, and decided to sit up. It took the field 1/2 lap to catch me, and I felt so fresh I didn't drop out of 3rd or 4th spot until the sprint.
What I'd do is think about how long you can go really hard, then time your attack appropriately. Like WR's 1 km attacks, but tailored to your particular strength. If you can go 8-10 minutes like no one else's business, then I'd go with 4 or 5 to go in a crit with sub-1 mile laps.
cdr