We shall see!-

Iban Mayo TdF 2004 - top notch climber and it was all for naught because he lost too much time in a crash on a very similar stage so his climbing abilities couldn't make up the difference (yes, he is not Contador but still). Contador doesn't have to crash out - if he misses a break in the peloton (as he did on a far less tough stage last year), crashes or has a mechanical and has a poor bike exchange or gets caught behind a massive pile up the gap could hurt. So think IF (and its a big one) he loses time on this stage it will be much more than the echelon of last year. Or he finishes in the lead group and loses no time and Prudhomme's choice of this stage doesn't do anything for selection and we wait until the mountains were AC probably obliterates the field.

The difference on this stage to that in 2004 is the cobbles are closer to the finish of the stage so there is less time/distance to make up for any problems during the race (i.e. catching the lead group, etc).