Well, I'm a newbie and a woman (does that make a difference?) and I average around 16.5 on pretty flat courses and between 15.5 and 16 on more rolling courses. This is a starting point for me - I'm working on figuring out some sort of training plan to get faster and ride longer. Right now I ride 20-30 miles three days a week and between 5 and 10 the other days.