Originally Posted by
cooker
I think shaft drive will catch on and claim a big chunk of the market. Three pounds extra weight is a trivial amount unless you're racing, and even then mainly for hills. The real questions are: is shaft drive efficient, and does the gear ratio suit the rider and conditions? Shaft didn't catch on 100 years ago because hub gears weren't very good, and only had 3 speeds max. Now there are 7 and 8 speed hubs, and maybe some with even more gears, made with much better material (obviously) than in 1900. If the shaft drive sellers are correct, and power transfer efficiency is comparable to chain drive, and if the gears are optimized for non-racing conditions, then I think a lot of commuters and recreational riders will accept an extra three pound of weight in exchange for durability, reliability, ground clearance, the ability to change gears when stopped, and (especially) cleanliness.
Robert
I don't think they'll 'catch on' if they're anything like the test shaftie I took a spin on? My local bike shop had one with a shaft and an automatic-shifting enclosed rear hub, so I tried it out.
And I was completely unnerved by the disconnected free-wheeling that occurred prior to every 'automatic' downshift! I would NEVER own a bike where there was so often such a loss of pedal control!
Although I often suspect that 7 speeds might possibly be quite adequate for my usage, I'll still stick with my lovely inexpensive Trek 7000 with it's standard 21 speeds, excellent handling, and no free-wheeling surprises, thank you!