Guess I'll finally weigh in on this thread, having been involved to one extent or another into vintage cars, motorcycles, cameras, and firearms. And there's a couple general rules out there:

1. Everything becomes vintage. All it has to do is survive 25+ years, and it's made it. By 30 years, another generation is looking at it as an antique. And then its down to reliving one's youth vs. antique collecting, depending on the age of who's doing the buying.

2. With a few deliberate collectible exceptions (Ferrari's, engraved presentation pistols, certain limited production Ducati's, etc.) nobody in the present has a clue whether a certain object is going to become collectible. Real collectibility (every antique object has some degree of collectibility, even Varsity's) is a combination of too many factors to mention . . . . . . . . and the biggest one is usually luck.

I feel pretty confident in saying that none of the regulars in this forum (including myself) have the slightest clue what 2010 bike is going to be the equivalent of an RB-1 in 2050 - mainly because we don't follow what's going on in the modern bicycle market (and most comments we make about modern bikes are disparaging) unless it's some odd juncture into a lugged steel frame being made by an outfit that normally does unlugged aluminum or carbon fiber. And even if we did, we don't have the advantage of seeing forty years ahead and understanding why it got the reputation it's going to get.

Prime example: I have (as many here have been pounded with over the years) an excellent memory of the bicycle business 1970-1975. And in retrospect, I can easily understand why a first generation Fuji Finest, or a cottered crank Raleigh Super Course are highly thought of today. That's today. That's with the hindsight of 40 years. Back in 1973, looking at that first blue Finest uncrated and set up on the showroom floor of John DeAngelo's bicycle shop in Erie, I could see that the bike that somewhat special . . . . . but if somebody had told me that people would be collecting and revering them 40 years later, I'd have wondered if he'd spent last night doing the laced acid that I wisely passed on.

And even at that point in time, being heavily involved in the AACA and showing an antique Buick, I certainly understood the concept of antique desirability. And was trying to handicap a few current cars at the time.

We won't have a clue as to what is, and I most likely, given my age, won't see what's the hot antique bicycle in 2040 or 2050.

But then, I can remember my father's carburetor specialist at his Chevy dealership back in the 1950's, the guy who, in the late 60's got me hooked on antique car shows. This guy had this odd pre-war car that, when he bought it for $25.00 back in 1947, it was nothing more than some odd looking old car that had gone out of business, and you had a hard time getting parts for, so why bother? Unless you were a bit odd, like him and a few other people.

Oh yeah, the car was a 1936 Cord 810 Sportsman. And he helped found the Auburn/Cord/Duesenberg club. Later, as he was getting old and couldn't drive anymore (mid-1980's) he gave dad and me first shot at buying it. $100,000.

Anyone out there think they can accurately guess what 2010 model bicycle out there gathering dust in a bicycle shop is the equivalent of that Cord? If you're absolutely certain you know, I suggest you go out and buy two or three of them, keep them in the box, and store them away. Your grandchildren will revere your memory.

Oh yeah, the reason I'd really like to be around 40 years from now? To see that these modern carbon fiber wonders held up a lot better than most of the disparaging comments have predicted. I don't doubt that they will.