I'm not so much thinking about will impoverished college students be riding old Trek Madone's, as I'm thinking about the claims I've read over the past few years from die-hard steel aficionados that, say, 2002 carbon fiber bikes won't last until 2020. Period. I have a feeling they're going to be proven very wrong.

Besides, let's put it into a relevant form: How many impoverished college students are riding 1980 Colnago's to class this year? 1980 low-end Schwinn's, yes. Colnago's, no. Those bikes are still too pricey for the average impoverished college student (which, by the way, is a concept I don't believe in - any college student who can afford bheer and pizza on a Friday night is not impoverished - and I've never seen one who can't).

Assuming that college students in 2040 are riding bicycles (a leap of faith to begin with - we're assuming college society thirty years from now is nothing more than a stylistically different 2010 college society, and basing that totally on the difference between 1980 campus life and 2010), they're probably going to be riding reclaimed steel hybrids, or, aluminum road bikes with carbon forks. Which are the current equivalents of 1970 Schwinn Suburbans and Varsities.

The Trek Madones, Orbea Orcas, Pinarello Princes, etc., will probably be treated like we treat the Raleigh Professionals and Gitane Professional Super Corsa today. As high end, expensive bikes that the enthusiasts couldn't afford when they were new. With a certain amount of reverence.

One of our weaknesses in discussing this is that we're fixated on quality road bikes, aka, racing bikes, touring bikes, etc. The despised (by being ignored) hybrid is going to be a lot more important as a reclaimed used bike in the future.

Even today, a 1973 Raleigh Professional makes a lousy urban commuter. It can't take the day to day strain. You think a Trek Madone is going to be any better?

Lower you thinking way down on the manufacturer's catalog when you're talking a junkyard bike to reclaim as an urban commuter.