Originally Posted by
Spasticteapot
Materials science says otherwise. A single minor crash - one from which the rider is able to walk away - is enough to damage the weave of a carbon fiber bicycle to the point where it's no longer safe to ride.
But usually doesn't. The same could be said for lightweight steel. These things are hard to predict. I've seen a lot of carbon bikes crash and remain rideable.
Originally Posted by
Spasticteapot
Furthermore, the resins used will slowly break down over time due to UV exposure and other factors. Carbon fiber is, to put it simply, rather fragile stuff. Unlike a Schwinn Paramount - which, if unridden, will remain factory-fresh for decades - a carbon frame will eventually lose structural integrity sooner or later. While a few immaculately preserved examples will no doubt remain, there won't be an awful lot of them.
How long does this process take? How severe is it? Is it likely that a CF bicycle will be structurally unsound to the point of being unrideable in 20 years? How do you know? Again, this happens with the old steel stuff, too - if it's been ridden lots, and exposed to the environment, than you have rust, fatigue and damage to content with. CF is not marzipan. The UV loss argument is kind of like the aluminum fatigue cycle argument - true in the basic sense of the statement, but with little or no relevance to reality (i.e. Al frames designed for more than enough fatigue cycles, steel bicycle frames almost certainly ARE subject to fatigue, etc).
The problem is that our imaginations are limited by our prejudices. A lot of people in this thread are saying, essentially, that current bicycles will not be classics, because they don't, personally, find them appealing (though there's a lot of rationalizations flying around to justify this). That's not a terribly sound basis for forecasting. I think skyerocker is right on, with essentially everything he's said. No need to reiterate - just read his posts again.
One more thing: remember that the really high-end racing bikes of the 70's and 80's are highly sought-after. Most of the vintage bikes being ridden around by college students are low to mid-range bikes of more limited interest to collectors. Most of the bikes that fill that niche today
are still steel and aluminum. I'm very skeptical that CF is going to displace metal as the material for low-end hybrids and etc, even for several decades yet. But CF is here to stay for the high-end stuff, and it WILL survive the years. I have little doubt of that.