Originally Posted by
ianbrettcooper
Optimism! I love it! I just don't share it, knowing how devastating the coming oil shocks are going to be. I simply don't see any way cars can be a part of our future, unless they look a lot more like bicycles than they do now. I just don't see how the coming energy crises will permit each commuter to drag around 3 tons of steel. I really think cars won't factor into the sort of power options we're going to have available. I really don't. The lucky thing, from my perspective, is that, as a guy who's pushing 50, I probably won't be alive for the worst parts of what's to come (unless even I am being too optimistic). My daughter won't be so lucky. People who are now 20 and under are going to be in a world of hurt, as the lights go out on our oil-based world. Without cheap oil, our world simply cannot sustain anywhere near 7 billion people, and it certainly can't keep them in automobiles when the energy cars use will be needed just to keep enough food on the table.
It's the "oil-based" aspect that will change, but not likely the demand for individual personal transportation.
We may end up building a bunch of nuke plants, or building solar and wind along with the nuke... to power our various toys that we "cannot live without" as well as whatever we call "cars" in the future. The changes will be gradual, will likely include plug in vehicles and robot self drive vehicles and a transition period of mopeds and ebikes and other means of cheap transit. (the death of the Hummer is the first shot across the bow...)
Nukes have already been proposed by the current administration. Electric cars are in the works (Chevy Volt). I rather doubt there will be the "crisis and apocalypse" picture that some have in mind. Cost of energy will dictate the rate of change.
Your daughter will likely drive a small electric car by the time she is 45.
Public transit may even make a comeback.