Originally Posted by
20grit
You'll see the price continue to go up to a point where the bikes reach their maximum usable value (a very subjective thing, but we're talking in terms of transportation, recreational value) with the exception of 'collectible' bikes. Now which bikes are collectible ? The ones everyone here keeps talking about. The wealth of information on the internet is what drives up the prices of things nowadays. When I started playing guitar, old Gibson LG's were selling for up to $900. Now that's a starting price for decent condition LG's. Ebay has certainly helped to drive prices up.
+1 For most vintage bikes, I think the ceiling is somewhere below the price of a new LBS road bike. When you can find a nice, mid grade, vintage bike for around $250, whereas the entry level new LBS bike sells for $800 to $900, the value is there. OK, the new bike will have STI, better wheels, etc. But the gap is so large, its easy to go with the vintage bike. Many even relatively higher end vintage bikes are still selling for no more than a new entry level bike, usually less. Eventually, the gap will close somewhat, but not go away.
So I think vintage bikes still present a tremendous utilitarian value.
Many vintage bikes were made during the bike boom, so there are millions of them out there. So I think that will limit the collectible premium for many of the bikes from that era. But the high end rare stuff will draw collectors, who will pay premium pricing, like the OP above.
On the F/G market, I think we are seeing the impact of so many new FG bikes that you can find on sale at Nashbar, Bikes Direct, etc., for under $300. All of a sudden, paying $250 for a decent vintage bike, then buying a replacement wheelset, etc., isn't making much sense. So I think there is a cap on most FG bikes.