It's definitely faded, and has been replaced by interest in 1) touring bikes, 2) Utilitarian bikes, and 3) Vintage geared bikes. As a local mechanic remarked to a friend about 2 yrs. ago, "Geared is the new fixed."

I've sold 4 nice vintage bikes or frame-sets in the last couple weeks for fair prices. 3 of the 4 were nice young hipsters who most certainly were NOT into vintage bikes up until recently, and, if I had to guess, were lured into the field by interest in the whole ss/fg craze. The fact that I could sell those in November is amazing. It wasn't possible a few years ago. Ebay would've been my only option.

The future? A group of us stopped for lunch and a beer after a ride this week, and the same subject came up (though in the form of a "Campy vs. Suntour" debate). All in all, I think that prices and interest are going to continue to grow, as the entry-level enthusiasts are definitely getting more sophisticated. The guys that bought my bikes all had a decent level of knowledge, and weren't buying because they liked the colors of the bikes. 2 of them were obscure brands, and the sellers bought because they recognized the quality of the frames.

Let me take a SWAG (Sophisticated Wild Ass Guess) at some numbers. There's been a huge increase in the number of active cyclists in the past few years (we are definitely in the middle of a second "bike boom"). I'll just throw out a SWAG - 2 million nationwide (1 out every 150 people?). Even if 70% go back to letting their bikes rust in the garage when the boom is over, there would be an additional 600,000 people out there continuing to ride regularly? If 10% are bitten by the vintage bug, there would still be an additional 60,000 vintage enthusiasts out there?

I really don't think that I am out of line with my SWAG of 2 million. Every major urban area and every college campus has been overrun by bikes. Ten years ago, it wasn't cool to ride a bike to work, or around your college campus. It sure is now. Even 5 years ago, I used to get stares when I commuted to work, and there were few enough cyclists around that we would generally say hi to each other. Not anymore. Some parts of Chicago see a steady, year round stream of cycle commuters.

As knowledge grows, so will the market. Hang on to your derailleurs, boys and girls. Made in Taiwan fixies may be dropping in value, but quality vintage is sure to rise.