Originally Posted by
RobertHurst
In San Francisco, ridership went up, and the number of crashes went up even more. How come Safety in Numbers didn't work there?
How come Safety in Numbers didn't work for motorcyclists?
Who says the crash rate in San Francisco hasn't been declining indexed to ridership? one hastily published study with dubious data points - self reporting over only less than 24 months, wasn't it?
Ridership in San Francisco fairly exploded in the years prior to the anomoly of a dubious study...... ridership up 56 percent in SF from 2004 to 2008, and continuing increases in ridership very likely shows a decline in the indexed crash rate for bicyclists there over the last decade.
Originally Posted by Robert Hurst
It's like magic -- add a bunch of adult commuters, and your total accident-per-participant rate goes down. Voila!
Now, is that because of Safety in Numbers, or Safety in Something Else?
To determine if things really are safer for adult commuters when adult commuter numbers rise, you have to count the accidents involving adult commuters, not all the accidents of all the cyclists in the community.
New York, Portland, Minneapolis didn't just add those riders by magic. In New York City, Robert, ridership nearly doubled in 4 years...... maybe this too, is illusory? Adding 80,000 riders in 4 years to New York City wasn't a boost in experienced, traffic savvy commuters going all neon and 'best practices' on Manhattan Island.
It's also not a case of magic bike salmon in New York City that are impervious to collisions. Ridership skill level and obedience to traffic laws by all accounts is still fairly atrocious in New York, yet bicyclist safety is going up along with massive increases in ridership.
Counting serious reported crashes and comparing that to the numbers of cyclists -extrapolated by the US Census Bureau or commuter rider counts - IS sound methodology for showing trends in crash rates.
Again, i'm not attributing any magic powers to what appears to be safer cycling conditions for bicyclists in cities - due in some part to acheiving a type of critical mass of ridership - that is positively affecting cyclist safety. I find it a trend in bicyclist safety that is widespread and pernicious thruout cities that have been planning and facilitating more bicycling.
it's attributable to something. You've picked magic, I think, Robert, or is it less kids biking?
I'm going with a simpler explanation of more bike traffic, constant bike traffic - drunks, wrong way riders, disenfranchised working class, young ninja, commuters, kids to schools - of all variety creating a critical mass of sorts in cities bicycling has become quite a bit more popular in recent years in the USA, causing drivers at all hours to be more attuned to sharing the roads with bicyclists in these cities.
Here's what a Federal Highway Administration exploratory team had to say about 'safety in numbers' in other countries on a recent data gathering trip, detailed in a 2010 FHWA report on international policies on bicycling and walking...
Originally Posted by fhwa 2010 report Pedestrian and Bicyclist Safety and Mobility in Europe
The theory of "safety in numbers" (also called "awareness in numbers") is a clear motivator behind the promotion of walking and bicycling as a safety improvement strategy. Most of the host countries indicated that they promoted walking and bicycling for a variety of reasons (lower overall transportation delivery cost, sustainability, space and energy efficiency, health and wellness, etc.), and improved safety was often mentioned as one of the outcomes of higher levels of walking and biking.
Their rationale is that when pedestrians and bicyclists are a common element in the street environment, motorists are more likely to expect their presence and take the necessary precautions at potential conflict points, such as when a motorist turns right across a through bicycle lane. Anecdotally, the scan team routinely observed this type of motorist behavior during field visits, in which motorists were more aware of pedestrians and bicyclists at conflict points.
The observable phenomenon of 'safety in numbers' as a result of more people walking and biking is most definitely 'a thing.'