Originally Posted by
neil
Although in this instance, I'd agree that it's best to take advantage of a minor design change that could save you a lot of trouble, I get where Booger1 is coming from.
What you're doing is "worst case scenario" thinking, instead of realistic risk assessment. Has there been a death or serious injury resulting from a blocked fender - probably. But what what's the frequency? If this is a one in ten million type of accident, then it's not something your should be spending time worrying about. In this case the "fix" is so minor as to be negligible, but there's so many times when we hear people use the worst case scenario as a reason for much bigger changes (such as not biking at all) that it's hard to take that kind of thinking seriously.
I think realistic worst case scenarios are part of any risk assessment. Regarding the frequency, which is of course vital too when assessing risks, then I have no hard numbers. But l some fast googling gives some interesting data:
In this thread I see 6 incidents where something was caught in the fenders and in 5 instances causing an accident. The 6th didn't endo or similar because of safety tabs.
http://www.bikeforums.net/archive/in.../t-639453.html
In this longer thread there are several reported incidents, including 2 dead, 1 broken eye socket, 1 smashed skull, broken collar bone and several ribs, at least 5 incidents where safety tabs prevented that the front fender jammed and caused an accident.
http://forum.ctc.org.uk/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=26761
I have read of many many other serious accidents caused by jammed front fenders and can easily find more similar accidents by googling. Sure this is not a scientific sampling and it doesn't really gives any firm idea about frequency. Still, it does show that jammed front fenders do actually cause accidents including deaths, and that several people report that their safety tabs actually work when put to the test.
My point is that many of these injuries can be really serious by the very nature of how an accident with a jammed front fender unfolds, by hurling the rider head first over the bicycle. And that these accidents do actually occur, and that they are preventable, and that the problem is well known, and the solution is almost cost free.
It is one thing not to upgrade ones old fenders, but it is another thing not to choose the safest fender when buying new ones, or to continue making unsafe fenders. Damn, I would feel bad about making a product that could cause unnecessary death or injury.
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Regards