Hmm, playing with some numbers here.
Using this website for power calculations:
http://www.noping.net/english/
Using my weight, arbitrary power numbers, etc.
Suppose I have 15 mph headwind half the time (half the time, not half the distance) and 5 mph headwind the other half.
If I ride with 200 watts constant power for 2 hours, I get 1 hour at 12.1 mph, 1 hour at 16.9 mph, total distance 29 miles.
If I ride with 250 watts power in the strong wind and 150 watts power in the weak wind, I get 1 hour at 13.7 mph, 1 hour at 14.7 mph, and total of 28.4 miles.
If I ride with 150 wats in the strong wind and 250 watts in the weak wind, I get 1 hour at 10.2 mph and 1 hour at 18.7 mph, and total of 28.9 miles. Better than the more-power-in-the-wind, not quite as good as holding uniform power.
If you figured strong wind for half the distance, not half the time, that might swing the other way, I haven't tried to see. But it looks like potentially some benefit in Machka's method.