echappist

V, i agree with most of what you say, but i don't think the post to which you are replying is a hissy, xenophobic fit (at least not xenophobic); there are other ones in this thread that fits the mold, though. That said, there's one point with which i happen to disagree.

Warning: macroeconomics rant ahead.

I actually happen to disagree conditionally with this one. Not when China (hey look, it's the country in which i was born) is manipulating currencies and providing subsidies seen and unseen trying to get rich while mostly disregarding whatever externalities these policies may have (often at a cost to their own people). There are a myriad of underlying causes for this, but the main one is an advanced form of "Bread and Circus" to keep the most foment-prone populace content in its material possessions and occupied by jobs so that they won't ask too many questions about the governmental policies that have given China a Gini Index that would put quite a few banana republics to shame. Without some sort of protectionism on the part of the U.S. government, no country can compete with this sort of handicap. To note, office of the Trade Representative gives the following numbers between Commie China and the U.S. for 2008: import from China ($348B), export to China ($86B), net deficit of $262B.

Taiwan, where most of the bikes we buy are made, is a wholly separate issue: import from Taiwan ($44B), export to Taiwan ($32B), net deficit of $12B. There is obviously still quite a bit of out sourcing to Taiwan, but Taiwan has grown so much richer in the past 20 years it's become a lot more expensive to do business there. Eventually, i'd think Taiwan will become very much like Hong Kong, and here are the numbers for the mostly autonomous region: Import from HK ($14B), export to HK ($28B), net surplus of $13B. Today, goods made in HK is considered top quality goods where, and goods produced in TW are also getting there. When that market has matured enough to be able to afford items from the U.S. and to be associated with top quality, off shoring is no longer going to save anyone money. As such, the need of protectionist barriers are not needed here.

I'd also venture to say that transitioning to a mostly service oriented economy probably won't fit the U.S. that well. Smaller countries with an extremely well-educated populace (e.g. Singapore) can pull it off, but not a country large enough and with only 30% of its population has a 4-year degree. For those 70% of the population (and many of the 30% without marketable skills), the only service jobs available are simply not that attractive.

[/macro econ rant]

Speaking of Singapore, has anyone seen the cost of a Ti bike from Bike Soul? At cost of $1750 for one and $2400 (albeit a frameset) for the other, these prices are no longer competitive with what Lynskey offers. As Taiwan develops, frames from there will reach those types of prices in the near future. As for Commie China, that's a wholly different story as there are masses (i.e. at least 400B peasants) looking to work for at a higher wage than at sustenance levels they get toiling in the fields. Although they won't be anywhere near skilled enough to be building a bike frame, the overall low wages will ensure that even the skilled labors are still cheap enough so that frames will still be relatively cheap.