I'm sorry, Erick, but we know differently. The weather information gathered for our area is located next to a large lake. That information is then translated into being the weather for an area at least in a 50km radius. We know that the rainfall recorded in that town is vastly different to that which would be recorded in our town 30km away. We know this because I work in both towns daily. The data collected therefore provides a weather forecast for our town that is regularly inaccurate.

I also know that the weather forecasts created by the Bureau of Meteorlogy here are based on one of three or four computer models incorporating the collected data, and the one that is publicly broadcast, by the bureau reprsentatives on the radio no less, is chosen by the duty forecaster. I would say the reliablity of those forecasts falls somewhat short of 100%.

The thing about weather forecasts is that when they are not accurate, the financial ramifications for people such as farmers can be considerable. For yachtsmen, they can be fatal, as a Sydney-Hobart yacht race about 20 years ago showed when a monster storm hit the fleet and many boats and lives were lost (I've also been around yacht racing a lot, and weather forecasting then was far from ideal).

I also have to reinforce that the national radio broadcasting service here, the ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) has BoM officials giving forecasts live in each region. Sorry, there are no commercial or socialogical considerations.

Related more to the subject, a friend of mine who was a cycling tourist was also a keen listener to weather forecasts in Tasmania. On several occasions, he decided not to go on a weekend tour with me because the official weather forecast was for rain and wind. I looked out the window and the weather pattern in my home city that I'd got to know quite well was for blue skies and sunshine. I went, he didn't, and I had superb weather on each occasion.

Mind you, having toured and randonneed in Tasmania, I learned to pack clothing for all conditions... just in case.