It depends on your riding style, but I've found that if I go at a reasonable clip, I sweat enough in most 'breathable'' jackets to make me wet either way. The best compromise I've found is a wind shell, they aren't actually waterproof, but they do breathe nicely, and they take a lot longer to wet out than most other garments I own. I can generate enough heat just riding to keep myself comfortable even if I'm not bone dry.

It does require a clean, dry change of clothes at work though.