He has good lawyers. If it really looks like he is facing a conviction for fraud and conspiracy, they may convince him to make a grand gesture of agreeing to a plea bargain "for the good of the sport and Livestrong." But I doubt he would ever agree to a plea that involves prison time, and the prosecutor may not accept anything less. It will certainly get to the cusp of trial, and may go all the way. If it does, I believe he'll do time, but there may be an agreement where he pays back large sums of money, admits his guilt, and does extended 'public service'.