Originally Posted by
FBinNY
assume all of the rider's weight is in the saddle.
That this cannot be so is seen by simply looking at a typical rider on the bike - the saddle is the rearmost point on the rider. This proves that the riders Centre of Mass must be forward of the saddle.
A more reasonable approximation is that the riders weight is roughly over the bottom bracket. That makes the rear weight estimation easier too - it's roughly total weight x (wheelbase - chainstay length) / wheel base