Someone on this forum predicted that the Saxo team is broken from the Giro. And at this point it seems to be a prophetic statement. Though none of Saxo's riders can stay with AC on the biggest climbs. They never could. They typically can be better when they are fresh and stay with the top GC guys up until the last climb or so. I think that Saxo put all of their resources into the Giro because they weren't sure if AC would be able to ride in the TDF. He was so strong in the Giro that he was obviously in peak condition. I think there is a serious chance that he won't win this TDF. But even if he can just hold on he will likely be on the podium or top 5 due to attrition. This might be tough though. It is absolutely imperative to stay healthy during the first week of sprinting stages for a top GC guy. The injuries simply impair your ability to recover to the same extent. As the healthy riders.

I think in order to do the Giro/TDF double in modern times. (Has anyone ever done it with the modern scheduling ?). The racer must just barely win the Giro rather than do it convincingly. Also, to stay out of trouble and not get hurt in the sprint stages for 2 grand tours is nigh unto impossible. And I even doubt that a grand tour double win can even be done without doping products to aid in recovery. So if by chance AC is riding clean. There is no way that he will win this TDF.